Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, MBA Mortgage Purchase Index, and MBA Mortgage Applications at 6:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales and Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Williams Speech at 6:00 P.m.
On the Corn Front we had choppy trade settling in the green with the new crop slightly narrowing the spread between the old crop corn. Stronger than expected China GDP and a cheaper US dollar enticed grain traders before the end of yesterday’s trading session. Inclement and cold weather will slow planting and fieldwork in the Corn Belt. Too much moisture is a concerned for the Northern Plains, Southern Plains, Midwest and Northern corn fields. Meanwhile, the calendar race is on to improve corn yields with The Argentine drought and the Russians so far saying nyet to the Black sea Corridor, the market is being pressured as Russia is allowing Istanbul Inspections of Ukraine grain. I expect China to be a buyer of US corn once the Brazilian export market is exhausted and I also expect exports will pick up with Latin America and other countries. With planting season still somewhat in the early stages, old-time farmers say the scale for nervousness and justifiable panic date is May 15th. In the last 23 years only two of seven years reaped record setting yields of early plantings, 2004 (160.3 bpa) and 2016 (174.6 bpa) The market is also being pressured this morning with a weak stock market and a higher US dollar as we begin the Wednesday trading session. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 674 ¼ which is 3 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 676 ½ to 672 ¼. Just a reminder that Friday April 28th is First Notice Day on all May grains and we should see rollovers activity to begin from the May to the July and December contract months.
On the Ethanol Front CO2 pipeline would be a boon for ethanol. But some question if they’re really a climate solution, writes Katie Peikes with harvest Public Media. Jeff Reints only has to look out across his field to see most of his corn ends up. “We’re directly west of the Shell Rock POET ethanol plant approximately a short mile away.” he said walking through corn stalks left from last year’s harvest. But when he found out the nearby ethanol plant would be a part of a proposed pipeline to carry away carbon dioxide, he was concerned. When he learned the pipeline would run underneath his northeast Iowa farm, he became staunchly opposed. “This is the best farmland the good Lord entrusted us with to be stewards of,” Reints said. “It’s just a shame to think that just for private gain, that they’re going to put a scar across our land.” Three proposed pipeline projects would travel through Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota, taking CO2 ethanol plants and sending it into Illinois and North Dakota. The Biden Administration is offering big tax incentives to help the US reach net zero by 2050.Farmers are betting on huge exports for corn and ethanol and are planting accordingly to meet the goal so leave fertile farmland alone. Once again the Biden Administration and Green Lobby attack in their war with ethanol producers, energy producers and as a whole farmers. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
Have An Excellent Trading Day!
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