Grains Report 04/19/2023

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed April 1 94.8 94.1-95.4
Placed in March 94.9 91.5-99.0
Marketed in March 98.8 97.2-99.6
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
April 1 in March in March
Allegiant Commodity Group 94.6 94.3 99.5
Allendale Inc. 95.4 96.4 98.1
HedgersEdge 94.9 93.7 97.2
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 95.4 99.0 99.5
Midwest Market Solutions 94.3 94.5 97.4
NFC Markets 94.4 92.5 99.0
Texas A&M Extension 94.9 98.0 99.5
US Commodities 94.1 91.5 99.6

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed yesterday, with Chicago closing higher and the other two markets closing lower. It was a consolidation day yesterday. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. There remains buying tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very dry with little or no relief in sight. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 711 and 737 May. Support is at 681, 675, and 661 May, with resistance at 712, 724, and 728 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 863, 853, and 840 May, with resistance at 899, 902, and 904 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 870, 860, and 847 March, and resistance is at 895, 899, and 910 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed yesterday, with nearby months unchanged to aa little higher and deferred months a little lower. It was a narrow range trade yesterday. Trends are still mixed on the May daily charts. The USDA reports released a week ago are the reason for the buying seen in recent sessions. Medium and short grain estimates were unchanged but ending stocks for long grain dropped by 6.0 million cwt as did the ending stocks estimates for all Rice. The moves shocked the market and futures went higher. Offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1715, 1700, and 1689 May and resistance is at 1760, 1772, and 1778 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 19
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.72 11.46 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.48 12.16 0.00
Brokens 10.89 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 6.81
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 6.93

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday, with Corn finding support from strong Chinese demand combined with little US producer selling interest. The weather was dry and warm in the Midwest last week and producers were concentrating on fieldwork and are not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 684 and 706 May. Support is at 668, 660, and 652 May, and resistance is at 682, 686, and 695 May. Trends in Oats are mixed o up with objectives of 387 and 406 May. Support is at 339, 332, and 328 May, and resistance is at 349, 353, and 360 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday, with demand ideas for US Soybeans supporting nearby months and cold and wet Midwest weather supporting new crop months. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Even so, production ideas are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are usually lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1564 and 1609 May. Support is at 1510, 1504 and 1490 May, and resistance is at 1532, 1537, and 1544 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 455.00, 446.00, and 425.00 May, and resistance is at 471.00, 475.00, and 485.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5850, 6080, and 6150 May. Support is at 5380, 5260, and 5130 May, with resistance at 5630, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil much lower today on ideas of increasing supplies here and around the world for vegetable oils. Trends are down on the daily charts. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was higher on price action in Chicago and as planting and fieldwork delays are returning as the weather is cold and wet again. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 760.00, 756.00, and 745.00 May, with resistance at 789.00, 798.00, and 803.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3830 July. Support is at 3740, 3640, and 3530 July, with resistance at 3810, 3880, and 3940 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 18
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 783.50 9.80 May 2023 up 10.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 788.30 35.00 Jul 2023 up 6.80
Basis: Vancouver 813.30 60.00 Jul 2023 up 6.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1030.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 1010.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 947.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 877.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1040.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 1020.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 957.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 887.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 955.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 820.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4280.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 242.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.439)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 152,175 lots, or .77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,188 5,204 5,150 5,159 5,195 5,175 -20 4,244 17,962
Jul-23 5,100 5,122 5,061 5,066 5,089 5,086 -3 115,414 134,853
Sep-23 5,069 5,079 5,030 5,036 5,048 5,051 3 22,966 26,838
Nov-23 5,040 5,051 5,007 5,012 5,031 5,026 -5 9,179 29,541
Jan-24 5,033 5,041 4,998 5,003 5,030 5,021 -9 282 3,677
Mar-24 5,016 5,020 4,987 4,992 5,011 5,001 -10 90 4,443
Corn
Turnover: 467,141 lots, or 12.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,725 2,731 2,704 2,709 2,727 2,719 -8 34,383 101,352
Jul-23 2,739 2,749 2,730 2,734 2,742 2,740 -2 316,604 842,678
Sep-23 2,725 2,737 2,717 2,721 2,729 2,727 -2 60,389 245,435
Nov-23 2,687 2,693 2,677 2,678 2,695 2,685 -10 37,677 252,583
Jan-24 2,682 2,685 2,674 2,675 2,684 2,679 -5 5,446 30,477
Mar-24 2,674 2,676 2,668 2,668 2,677 2,672 -5 12,642 26,807
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,944,774 lots, or 69.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,755 3,760 3,631 3,633 3,747 3,681 -66 289,384 269,743
Jul-23 3,542 3,542 3,448 3,448 3,542 3,497 -45 187,266 374,603
Aug-23 3,595 3,595 3,493 3,493 3,595 3,549 -46 57,702 200,034
Sep-23 3,586 3,586 3,485 3,490 3,588 3,533 -55 1,246,184 1,314,408
Nov-23 3,580 3,580 3,478 3,478 3,580 3,532 -48 49,674 122,786
Dec-23 3,576 3,576 3,477 3,477 3,573 3,539 -34 32,994 50,373
Jan-24 3,538 3,538 3,470 3,471 3,534 3,502 -32 75,675 139,859
Mar-24 3,472 3,482 3,421 3,421 3,486 3,453 -33 5,895 20,668
Palm Oil
Turnover: 965,605 lots, or 72.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,886 7,920 7,820 7,856 7,752 7,872 120 109,558 102,494
Jun-23 7,660 7,744 7,646 7,690 7,574 7,692 118 34,841 101,260
Jul-23 7,496 7,608 7,496 7,542 7,426 7,552 126 27,926 108,995
Aug-23 7,428 7,490 7,394 7,426 7,322 7,436 114 17,043 71,424
Sep-23 7,370 7,442 7,348 7,386 7,248 7,388 140 739,059 438,028
Oct-23 7,312 7,414 7,312 7,362 7,220 7,364 144 10,490 40,215
Nov-23 7,288 7,394 7,288 7,354 7,204 7,344 140 16,578 28,177
Dec-23 7,296 7,364 7,284 7,342 7,182 7,326 144 1,171 7,360
Jan-24 7,256 7,342 7,250 7,330 7,168 7,306 138 8,725 7,097
Feb-24 7,294 7,320 7,294 7,320 7,168 7,312 144 9 499
Mar-24 7,272 7,292 7,264 7,292 7,234 7,274 40 193 815
Apr-24 7,328 7,328 7,046 7,252 7,192 7,168 -24 12 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 855,679 lots, or 68.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,246 8,266 8,120 8,146 8,138 8,198 60 101,332 96,886
Jul-23 8,076 8,076 7,928 7,956 7,944 8,006 62 35,334 123,595
Aug-23 7,986 8,048 7,906 7,932 7,904 7,988 84 8,725 88,676
Sep-23 7,990 8,028 7,886 7,914 7,904 7,968 64 682,528 442,054
Nov-23 7,956 8,006 7,878 7,898 7,884 7,960 76 11,407 49,910
Dec-23 8,028 8,052 7,930 7,946 7,970 8,008 38 5,166 33,954
Jan-24 8,002 8,028 7,900 7,924 7,930 7,966 36 7,444 19,065
Mar-24 7,972 7,992 7,876 7,902 7,878 7,908 30 3,743 10,448
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322