Grains Report 04/18/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 17
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Apr 17, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 13, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/13/2023 04/06/2023 04/14/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,083
CORN 1,215,221 839,165 1,182,821 21,423,929 33,243,361
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 100 6,486 600
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 57,763 90,631 323,467 1,249,671 4,919,896
SOYBEANS 526,376 678,038 1,008,326 46,667,363 46,039,346
SUNFLOWER 0 0 336 2,408 1,588
WHEAT 239,907 389,345 446,225 17,488,727 18,083,542
Total 2,039,267 1,997,179 2,961,275 86,840,938 102,298,740
—————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Cr+E13+A1:F21+A1+A1:F21
Date 16-Apr 9-Apr 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 8 6 10 9
Corn Planted 8 3 4 5
Soybeans Planted 4 1 1
Sorghum Planted 15 13 17 17
Rice Planted 38 22 21 28
Rice Emerged 18 13 13 15
Peanuts Planted 1 2 2
Sugarbeets Planted 13 7 13
Oats Planted 36 28 33 35
Oats Emerged 26 25 24 26
Barley Planted 5 1 16 14
Winter Wheat Headed 10 7 7 8
Spring Wheat Planted 3 1 8 7

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 18 21 34 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Week 17 20 36 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Year 19 18 33 27 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday with buying tied once again to uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal being continued. There remains buying tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very dry with little or no relief in sight. Turkey and Russia are talking together about their own plan for exports from the Black Sea and are not including the UN in the talks. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 645 and 602 May. Support is at 654, 648, and 642 May, with resistance at 686, 692, and 712 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 835, 830, and 809 May. Support is at 840, 813, and 810 May, with resistance at 853, 864, and 871 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 840, 827, and 823 May. Support is at 846, 833, and 827 March, and resistance is at 875, 887, and 899 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed yesterday, with nearby months lower and deferred months higher. Trends are still mixed on the May daily charts. The USDA reports released a week ago are the reason for the buying seen in recent sessions. Medium and short grain estimates were unchanged but ending stocks for long grain dropped by 6.0 million cwt as did the ending stocks estimates for all Rice. The moves shocked the market and futures went to big gains. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1805 May. Support is at 1700, 1689, and 1675 May and resistance is at 1739, 1760, and 1772 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and Oats closed lower yesterday, with Corn finding support from strong Chinese demand combined with little US producer selling interest. China bought almost 800,000 tons of US Corn last week. The weather is dry and warm in the Midwest and producers are concentrating on fieldwork and are not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. WASDE estimates released on Tuesday showed unchanged ending stocks levels for Corn, but the market had anticipated a reduction in ending stocks to account for the less than expected quarterly stocks estimates released a couple of weeks ago. Instead, USDA cut imports and food demand by 10 million bushels each to leave the stocks unchanged. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 681, 684, and 706 May. Support is at 668, 660, and 652 May, and resistance is at 682, 686, and 695 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 339, 332, and 328 May, and resistance is at 348, 353, and 360 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday, with demand ideas for US Soybeans supporting nearby months and cold and wet Midwest weather supporting new crop months. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well, and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Even so, production ideas are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1504, 1490 and 1483 May, and resistance is at 1522, 1528, and 1537 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 476.00, 487.00, and 516.00 May. Support is at 455.00, 446.00, and 425.00 May, and resistance is at 470.00, 475.00, and 485.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5380, 5260, and 5130 May, with resistance at 5540, 5630, and 5810 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil much higher today along with strength in Chicago Soybean Oil. Trends are down on the daily charts despite news that OPEC was cutting oil production again. Trends are sideways on the weekly charts. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was higher on price action in Chicago and as planting and fieldwork delays are passing are returning as the weather is cold and wet again. Futures were lower for the week after a very choppy week of trading. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 760.00, 756.00, and 745.00 May, with resistance at 781.00, 789.00, and 798.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3530, 3460, and 3400 July, with resistance at 3690, 3770, and 3880 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 17
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 773.30 10.20 May 2023 dn 5.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 781.50 35.00 Jul 2023 up 10.20
Basis: Vancouver 806.50 60.00 Jul 2023 up 10.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1030.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
May 1010.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 950.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 882.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1040.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
May 1020.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 960.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 892.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 955.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 820.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4300.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 243.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.432)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 184,332 lots, or 9.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,204 5,208 5,175 5,204 5,218 5,195 -23 10,647 20,074
Jul-23 5,047 5,132 5,047 5,118 5,065 5,089 24 130,430 135,634
Sep-23 5,005 5,092 5,005 5,076 5,031 5,048 17 32,811 26,267
Nov-23 5,001 5,066 4,993 5,049 5,006 5,031 25 9,443 29,001
Jan-24 4,989 5,055 4,983 5,043 4,997 5,030 33 701 3,617
Mar-24 4,986 5,044 4,972 5,015 4,979 5,011 32 300 4,430
Corn
Turnover: 526,645 lots, or 14.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,727 2,734 2,721 2,726 2,731 2,727 -4 46,416 117,051
Jul-23 2,736 2,754 2,733 2,742 2,740 2,742 2 363,244 828,149
Sep-23 2,723 2,741 2,722 2,727 2,729 2,729 0 52,959 231,913
Nov-23 2,684 2,705 2,681 2,688 2,699 2,695 -4 42,485 248,635
Jan-24 2,680 2,693 2,678 2,681 2,687 2,684 -3 5,893 28,040
Mar-24 2,675 2,683 2,670 2,670 2,678 2,677 -1 15,648 25,770
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,520,220 lots, or 5.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,695 3,796 3,685 3,770 3,626 3,747 121 297,537 295,072
Jul-23 3,513 3,560 3,513 3,550 3,492 3,542 50 151,983 370,238
Aug-23 3,567 3,611 3,567 3,606 3,544 3,595 51 54,014 199,333
Sep-23 3,567 3,607 3,565 3,595 3,535 3,588 53 882,989 1,160,324
Nov-23 3,568 3,596 3,556 3,588 3,532 3,580 48 46,662 116,804
Dec-23 3,555 3,589 3,555 3,583 3,531 3,573 42 25,298 48,692
Jan-24 3,513 3,549 3,513 3,540 3,493 3,534 41 56,802 126,668
Mar-24 3,470 3,498 3,470 3,489 3,452 3,486 34 4,935 19,001
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,063,107 lots, or 78.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,696 7,856 7,660 7,856 7,646 7,752 106 193,207 117,490
Jun-23 7,504 7,664 7,468 7,656 7,458 7,574 116 33,124 102,187
Jul-23 7,320 7,520 7,320 7,520 7,320 7,426 106 27,416 106,460
Aug-23 7,252 7,412 7,232 7,400 7,212 7,322 110 16,270 68,020
Sep-23 7,160 7,362 7,136 7,360 7,120 7,248 128 766,286 422,305
Oct-23 7,164 7,336 7,124 7,336 7,104 7,220 116 9,160 39,433
Nov-23 7,182 7,320 7,118 7,320 7,096 7,204 108 12,355 26,429
Dec-23 7,114 7,294 7,104 7,294 7,078 7,182 104 637 7,258
Jan-24 7,096 7,284 7,076 7,274 7,062 7,168 106 4,630 4,964
Feb-24 7,134 7,272 7,132 7,272 7,094 7,168 74 7 501
Mar-24 7,166 7,264 7,164 7,264 7,074 7,234 160 15 661
Apr-24 – – – 7,192 7,074 7,192 118 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 852,408 lots, or 67.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,080 8,234 8,080 8,232 8,066 8,138 72 173,303 115,178
Jul-23 7,920 8,052 7,852 8,048 7,852 7,944 92 38,540 121,108
Aug-23 7,872 8,024 7,828 8,022 7,828 7,904 76 9,322 86,782
Sep-23 7,852 8,012 7,806 8,010 7,804 7,904 100 601,719 428,190
Nov-23 7,822 7,990 7,796 7,990 7,788 7,884 96 14,017 48,340
Dec-23 7,920 8,044 7,860 8,042 7,854 7,970 116 5,447 33,352
Jan-24 7,888 8,018 7,826 8,018 7,816 7,930 114 8,479 18,520
Mar-24 7,840 7,980 7,804 7,974 7,792 7,878 86 1,581 9,195
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322