Softs Report 04/17/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week and held to the recent trading range. The market acts firm and might work higher over time. The USDA supply and demand reports that showed smaller ending stocks. Cotton retains bullish fundamentals after the reports. The weekly export sales report was just OK last week and featured light buying from many Asian countries. The prospective plantings report highlighted reduced planting ideas from producers. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends are sideways. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.40 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 81.90, 80.30, and 79.80 May, with resistance of 84.00, 84.60 and 85.30 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 11, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 236,214
: Positions :
: 27,243 50,014 65,344 64,652 95,665 65,136 11,881 222,375 222,904: 13,839 13,310
: Changes from: April 4, 2023 (Change in open interest: -5,340) :
: 2,498 -2,185 -1,735 -2,439 2,665 -4,650 -3,807 -6,326 -5,061: 986 -278
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 21.2 27.7 27.4 40.5 27.6 5.0 94.1 94.4: 5.9 5.6
:Total Traders: 275 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 82 87 54 57 44 25 216 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower last week. The weekly charts show strong up trends, but the daily charts indicate that a top might be forming. The USDA reports released on Tuesday supported prices overall. Florida production was left unchanged at 16.1 million boxes, but the rest of the US saw decreased production by 2.0 % to 2.57 million tons. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. But the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 270.00, 260.00, and 257.00 May, with resistance at 287.00, 293.00, and 299.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 11, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,322 :
: Positions :
: 780 6,998 1,311 62 3 4,378 468 75 891 359 2,531 :
: Changes from: April 4, 2023 :
: 77 -67 -62 7 3 150 -1 30 44 23 326 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.3 56.8 10.6 0.5 0.0 35.5 3.8 0.6 7.2 2.9 20.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 8 12 4 . . 21 . 4 8 10 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and at new highs for the move on ideas of little on offer from producers and reports of increasing demand. Support also came as the Real is stronger against the US Dollar. CECAFE said that Brazil March exports were 19% les than a yea ago at 3.1 million bags. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to price differentials with Arabica. Differentials are weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.710 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 183.74 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 194.00, 191.00, and 184.00 May, and resistance is at 200.00, 203.00 and 206.00 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2380, 2300, and 2250 May, and resistance is at 2470, 2500, and 2530 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 11, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 238,903
: Positions :
: 28,147 17,240 75,491 60,259 125,141 66,176 12,377 230,073 230,248: 8,830 8,655
: Changes from: April 4, 2023 (Change in open interest: -144) :
: 7,837 -3,413 1,054 -6,816 5,094 -1,653 -2,646 421 89: -565 -233
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 7.2 31.6 25.2 52.4 27.7 5.2 96.3 96.4: 3.7 3.6
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 82 126 107 116 47 26 322 292:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/11/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
150,180 67,883 105,549 2,626 8,279 5,344
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 45.2% 70.3% 1.7% 5.5% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 47 43 6 10 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
36,586 4,184 5,383 7,720 766 15,909
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.4% 2.8% 3.6% 5.1% 0.5% 10.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
54 8 12 15 7 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
8,729 4,766
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.8% 3.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week, but spent the second half of the week consolidating recent gains. Trends are still up on the weekly charts, but are turning sideways on the daily charts. The production is not there to meet the demand. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. India has produced 30.0 million tons of Sugar so far this season, down 3.3% from last year. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil old crop production has been good after mills ran out of cane to crush a year ago. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2220, and 2180 July and resistance is at 2400, 2420, and 2450 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 646.00, 637.00, and 630.00 August and resistance is at 690.00, 695.00, and 701.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 11, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,290,899
: Positions :
: 218,017 62,871 323,512 386,784 748,133 249,862 100,455 1,178,174 1,234,971: 112,725 55,928
: Changes from: April 4, 2023 (Change in open interest: 34,949) :
: 2,447 -1,145 13,903 24,234 25,008 -6,423 -3,521 34,160 34,245: 789 704
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 4.9 25.1 30.0 58.0 19.4 7.8 91.3 95.7: 8.7 4.3
: Total Traders: 266 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 40 79 73 78 43 21 245 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/11/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
87,161 35,666 70,010 7,252 3,165 877
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 40.9% 80.3% 8.3% 3.6% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
118 34 39 10 2 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,958 2,661 2,238 1,261 1,971 2,697
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
35.5% 3.1% 2.6% 1.4% 2.3% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
40 6 15 7 5 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,212 3,542
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.1% 4.1%

COCOA
General Comments: New York was lower and London closed higher Friday, but both markets were higher for the week and made a new leg up on the weekly charts. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important to the trade. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.402 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3040 and 3150 May. Support is at 2850, 2830, and 2780 May, with resistance at 3000, 3020, and 3050 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2220 May. Support is at 2150, 2100, and 2070 May, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2260 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 11, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 409,583
: Positions :
: 92,116 54,963 117,450 116,201 185,165 67,188 40,248 392,955 397,826: 16,628 11,757
: Changes from: April 4, 2023 (Change in open interest: -86,892) :
: 1,880 -298 -46,657 -39,317 -35,695 -3,154 -3,321 -87,247 -85,971: 355 -922
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.5 13.4 28.7 28.4 45.2 16.4 9.8 95.9 97.1: 4.1 2.9
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 63 88 42 45 31 21 219 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/11/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
392,905 146,624 265,919 33,527 16,449 31,810
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 37.3% 67.7% 8.5% 4.2% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
166 45 41 17 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
96,509 7,286 23,598 14,707 5,329 40,649
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.6% 1.9% 6.0% 3.7% 1.4% 10.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
45 11 22 22 6 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,481 1,865
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.5%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322