Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday in correction trading after the reaction seen Tuesday to the USDA supply and demand reports that showed smaller ending stocks. Cotton retains bullish fundamentals after the reports. The weekly export sales report was weaker last week but still featured buying from Vietnam and China. The prospective plantings report highlighted reduced planting ideas from producers. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends are sideways. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.06 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 143,200 bales this year and 11,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales wefre 32,200 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 81.90, 80.30, and 79.80 May, with resistance of 84.00, 84.60 and 85.30 May.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday in consolidation trading. The USDA reports had a short lived influence on prices as the report was mostly neutral to futures prices. Florida production was left unchanged at 16.1 million boxes, but the rest of the US saw decreased production by 2.0 % to 2.57 million tons. Trends remain mostly up in the market. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. But the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 270.00, 260.00, and 257.00 May, with resistance at 287.00, 293.00, and 299.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed mixed to higher and London closed higher yesterday on ideas of little on offer from producers and reports of increasing demand. Support also came as the Real is stronger against the US Dollar. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to cost differentials with Arabica. Differentials are weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.720 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 179.00 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 184.00, 180.00, and 177.00 May, and resistance is at 193.00, 197.00 and 200.00 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2300, 2250, and 2210 May, and resistance is at 2420, 2450, and 2480 May.
DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Fell 19% in March to 3.1M Bags, Cecafe Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports fell in March as stocks dwindled after two smaller-than-normal harvests over the past two years, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 3.1 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a drop of 19% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Wednesday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee fell 19.3% to 2.7 million bags, while exports of robusta beans fell 20.9% to 107,267 bags.
Exports of ground, roast and soluble coffee fell 15.7% to 307,110 bags, Cecafe said.
The smaller crops in 2021 and 2022 have left Brazilian coffee sellers with fewer beans in reserve for sales ahead of the start of the 2023 harvest in April.
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly lower yesterday in what seemed to be consolidation trading. Trends are still up on the daily and the weekly charts. The production is not there to meet the demand. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. India has produced 30.0 million tons of Sugar so far this season, down 3.3% from last year. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil producers are currently active in the futures market placing hedges on the production. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2300, 2220, and 2180 July and resistance is at 2390, 2420, and 2450 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 662.00, 646.00, and 637.00 August and resistance is at 690.00, 695.00, and 701.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in range trading, but the lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important to the trade. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast Cocoa arrivals are now estimated at 1.779 million tons, down 4.8% from last year. Callebaut said yesterday that overall chocolate volume has fallen by 3.6% in the first six months with reductions in Europe and Americas outweighing a small increase in Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.379 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3040 and 3150 May. Support is at 2930, 2850, and 2820 May, with resistance at 3000, 3020, and 3050 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2220 May. Support is at 2150, 2100, and 2070 May, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2260 May.