Grains Report 04/13/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 13
For the week ended Apr 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 135.7 67.8 18276.5 19238.3 2588.5 764.2
hrw 46.2 12.4 4969.9 7548.5 595.7 122.0
srw -5.3 40.0 2819.4 2834.9 454.5 451.8
hrs 56.1 15.5 5541.6 5321.0 882.9 110.4
white 35.1 0.0 4573.9 3344.3 603.3 43.2
durum 3.5 0.0 371.7 189.6 52.1 36.9
corn 527.7 0.0 37739.5 55769.4 16442.9 2000.4
soybeans 364.5 66.0 50280.8 56635.6 4530.5 1766.9
soymeal 255.2 37.5 9265.0 9396.7 2742.5 343.5
soyoil -0.4 0.0 103.1 645.6 67.4 0.6
upland cotton 143.2 11.1 11764.1 14319.4 4617.6 1399.4
pima cotton 32.3 0.0 216.0 447.4 89.8 4.7
sorghum 65.0 0.0 1564.6 6758.1 692.9 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.5 20.5 3.3 6.0
rice 35.7 0.0 1722.9 2523.8 497.4 18.0

DJ Brazil Raises 2022-2023 Soybean Estimate to 153.6M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its estimate for soybean production for the 2022-2023 growing season after yields have improved as the harvest approaches its end.
Brazilian farmers produced about 153.6 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Thursday. In March, the agency forecast a crop of 151.4 million tons. Brazil produced 125.5 million tons of soybeans in 2021-2022.
Favorable weather conditions have boosted productivity in some of Brazil’s most important soybean-producing states to record levels, Conab said in its monthly report. That has more than made up for the impact of hot, dry weather in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the agency said.
Brazilian farmers are likely to produce 124.9 million metric tons of corn this season, a touch above the agency’s March agency forecast of 124.7 million tons. Both estimates are above the 2021-22 crop, when Brazil produced 113.1 million tons of corn.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed yesterday with Chicago a little higher and Kansas City and Minneapolis a little lower. It appeared to be a consolidation trade with the latter two markets and Chicago adjusting spreads between the three classes of Wheat. The USDA reports were bearish for prices. There remains selling tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very hot and dry with little or no relief in sight. Turkey and Russia are talking together about their own plan for exports from the Black Sea and are no including the UN in the talks. Russia has said that the current system cannot last. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 666, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 686, 692, and 712 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 881, 888, and 896 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 840, 827, and 823 May. Support is at 846, 833, and 827 March, and resistance is at 875, 887, and 899 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher again yesterday on follow through buying tied to the USDA WASDE estimates released Tuesday. Trends are up on the May daily charts. Futures have been in a massive move lower for the past week, but that changed once USDA released its new supply and demand estimates that called for less imports and bigger domestic and export demand for all Rice and especially Long Grain. Medium and short grain estimates were unchanged but ending stocks for long grain dropped by 6.0 million cwt as did the ending stocks estimates for all Rice. The moves shocked the market and futures went from slight gains to big gains. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1805 May. Support is at 1734, 1715, and 1700 May and resistance is at 1760, 1772, and 1778 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed and Oats closed lower yesterday. The weather is dry and warm in the Midwest and producers are concentrating on fieldwork and are not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. WASDE estimates released on Tuesday showed unchanged ending stocks levels for Corn, but the market had anticipated a reduction in ending stocks to account for the less than expected quarterly stocks estimates released a couple of weeks ago. Instead, USDA cut imports and food demand by 10 million bushels each to leave the stocks unchanged. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China bought 327,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 647, 640, and 628 May, and resistance is at 658, 660, and 668 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 317 May. Support is at 334, 328, and 315 May, and resistance is at 353, 360, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed yesterday, with demand ideas for US Soybeans supporting nearby months but good Midwest weather hurting new crop months. Ideas for the WASDE reports from USDA were for lower ending stocks, but USDA on Tuesday left ending stocks unchanged and made no changes to supply or demand. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. The basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1500, 1483 and 1471 May, and resistance is at 1527, 1532, and 1544 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 425.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 460.00, 469.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5130, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5630, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Trends are mixed on the daily charts despite news that OPEC was cutting oil production again. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was mostly lower yesterday, but May closed higher as planting and fieldwork delays are passing in favor of warmer and drier weather that is allowing producers to get into the fields. Forecasts are for warmer weather to show up in the Prairies this week could start to allow for fieldwork to start. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 756.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 781.00, 789.00, and 798.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3650 June. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3610 June, with resistance at 3810, 3870, and 3910 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 12
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for April 12, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 779.30 10.00 May 23 dn 6.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 816.00 45.00 May 23 up 1.70
Basis: Vancouver 821.00 50.00 May 23 up 1.70
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 990.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
May 950.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 905.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 855.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1000.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
May 960.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 915.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 865.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 910.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 760.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4250.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 238.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.398)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 170,636 lots, or 8.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,284 5,309 5,262 5,274 5,281 5,290 9 12,100 35,203
Jul-23 5,074 5,136 5,071 5,089 5,075 5,104 29 119,213 138,574
Sep-23 5,031 5,074 5,026 5,038 5,025 5,048 23 31,852 25,326
Nov-23 5,007 5,045 5,002 5,016 5,002 5,023 21 6,729 28,581
Jan-24 4,993 5,031 4,993 5,008 4,991 5,010 19 496 3,129
Mar-24 4,987 5,018 4,985 4,988 4,981 5,003 22 246 4,577
Corn
Turnover: 589,864 lots, or 16.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,753 2,762 2,737 2,740 2,754 2,750 -4 57,066 187,579
Jul-23 2,761 2,766 2,740 2,742 2,757 2,754 -3 391,467 801,769
Sep-23 2,743 2,753 2,728 2,730 2,743 2,741 -2 67,851 228,850
Nov-23 2,719 2,722 2,701 2,702 2,719 2,715 -4 40,899 244,879
Jan-24 2,698 2,700 2,681 2,681 2,700 2,693 -7 5,322 28,890
Mar-24 2,690 2,691 2,667 2,667 2,690 2,685 -5 27,259 22,781
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,507,294 lots, or 54.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,585 3,659 3,572 3,655 3,568 3,615 47 370,331 451,352
Jul-23 3,522 3,566 3,503 3,556 3,519 3,534 15 182,812 319,811
Aug-23 3,570 3,621 3,562 3,614 3,578 3,585 7 50,208 178,483
Sep-23 3,561 3,612 3,558 3,607 3,570 3,585 15 778,042 1,008,418
Nov-23 3,557 3,599 3,554 3,597 3,571 3,575 4 49,093 100,270
Dec-23 3,558 3,590 3,551 3,588 3,569 3,571 2 24,377 40,932
Jan-24 3,512 3,548 3,511 3,544 3,524 3,533 9 48,141 117,071
Mar-24 3,474 3,504 3,472 3,500 3,486 3,490 4 4,290 16,060
Palm Oil
Turnover: 972,814 lots, or 72.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 – – – 7,832 7,832 7,832 0 100 2,162
May-23 7,758 7,790 7,620 7,648 7,856 7,700 -156 473,407 191,210
Jun-23 7,568 7,594 7,442 7,464 7,648 7,514 -134 39,221 101,783
Jul-23 7,400 7,448 7,312 7,332 7,520 7,372 -148 34,776 91,825
Aug-23 7,308 7,334 7,196 7,212 7,418 7,254 -164 18,809 58,327
Sep-23 7,220 7,230 7,090 7,116 7,304 7,150 -154 376,140 308,404
Oct-23 7,196 7,206 7,076 7,094 7,286 7,126 -160 10,926 35,691
Nov-23 7,154 7,186 7,060 7,084 7,272 7,110 -162 15,657 22,100
Dec-23 7,140 7,174 7,046 7,074 7,248 7,096 -152 1,484 6,552
Jan-24 7,140 7,160 7,018 7,064 7,220 7,076 -144 2,274 3,119
Feb-24 7,094 7,094 7,040 7,042 7,208 7,056 -152 9 494
Mar-24 7,100 7,100 7,050 7,050 7,186 7,058 -128 11 555
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 781,985 lots, or 6.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,216 8,218 8,124 8,184 8,246 8,174 -72 383,576 176,047
Jul-23 7,996 8,006 7,882 7,952 8,042 7,936 -106 35,361 113,090
Aug-23 7,960 7,972 7,848 7,904 8,016 7,900 -116 11,192 81,473
Sep-23 7,920 7,944 7,812 7,866 7,988 7,870 -118 322,770 353,602
Nov-23 7,938 7,938 7,804 7,850 7,986 7,854 -132 11,735 43,872
Dec-23 7,956 7,982 7,870 7,922 8,032 7,914 -118 8,574 31,513
Jan-24 7,960 7,964 7,834 7,888 7,996 7,876 -120 5,074 17,066
Mar-24 7,906 7,926 7,818 7,856 7,974 7,854 -120 3,703 7,191
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322