Grains Report 04/12/2023

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2022-23 Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 1,342.0 1,316 1,182-1,392 1,342
Soybeans 210.0 201 170- 235 210
Wheat 598.0 581 557- 616 568
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 295.4 295.1 291.7-298.0 296.5
Soybeans 100.3 98.6 96.5-101.9 100.0
Wheat 265.1 267.1 265.0-269.0 267.2
***
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
2022-23 Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 125.0 126.4 123.0-131.3 125.0
Soybeans 154.0 153.6 151.0-157.7 153.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
2022-23 Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 37.0 37.0 33.0-39.0 40.0
Soybeans 27.0 29.0 25.0-31.5 33.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday in reaction to the USDA WASDE estimates that showed a bigger increase in US ending stocks than the trade had anticipated. The reports were bearish for prices and helped push prices for all three markets lower. More selling is possible today. There remains selling tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very hot and dry with little or no relief in sight. Turkey and Russia are talking together about their own plan for exports from the Black Sea and are no including the UN in the talks. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 645 and 602 May. Support is at 666, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 692, 712, and 724 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 886, 888, and 896 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 840, 827, and 823 May. Support is at 860, 846, and 833 March, and resistance is at 887, 899, and 910 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher yesterday in response to the USDA WASDE estimates, and trends are now up on the May daily charts. Futures have been in a massive move lower for the past week, but that changed once USDA released its new supply and demand estimates that called for less imports and bigger domestic and export demand for all Rice and especially Long Grain. Medium and short grain estimates were unchanged but ending stocks for long grain dropped by 6.0 million cwt as did the ending stocks estimates for all Rice. The moves shocked the market and futures went from slight gains to big gains. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1740 and 1805 May. Support is at 1689, 1675, and 1651 May and resistance is at 1723, 1733, and 1744 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 12
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.45 11.30 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.22 11.99 0.00
Brokens 10.73 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. WASDE estimates showed unchanged ending stocks levels for Corn, but the market had anticipated a reduction in ending stocks to account for the less than expected quarterly stocks estimates released a couple of weeks ago. Instead, USDA cut imports and food demand by 10 million bushels each to leave the stocks unchanged. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 638, 628, and 625 May, and resistance is at 658, 660, and 668 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 317 May. Support is at 334, 328, and 315 May, and resistance is at 353, 360, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on demand ideas for US Soybeans. Ideas for the WASDE reports from USDA were for lower ending stocks, but USDA left ending stocks unchanged and made no changes to supply or demand. The reports took Soybeans off the highs of the day but Soybeans still closed higher along with Soybean Meal. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. The basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week, so some areas can get started with fieldwork
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1483, 1471 and 1462 May, and resistance is at 1507, 1527, and 1532 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 425.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 460.00, 469.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5130, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5630, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower yesterday on less than hoped for exports as reported by the private sources. Trends are mixed on the daily charts despite news that OPEC was cutting oil production again. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was lower yesterday as planting and fieldwork delays are passing in favor of warmer and drier weather that is allowing producers to get into the fields. Forecasts are for warmer weather to show up in the Prairies this week could start to allow for fieldwork to start. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 756.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 781.00, 789.00, and 798.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3830, 3800, and 3700 June, with resistance at 3980, 4050, and 4170 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 11
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for April 11, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 785.30 11.30 May 23 up 3.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 814.30 45.00 May 23 dn 4.70
Basis: Vancouver 819.30 50.00 May 23 dn 4.70
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1010.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
May 970.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 915.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 865.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1020.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
May 980.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 925.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 875.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 940.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 770.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4280.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 239.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.409)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 164,836 lots, or 8.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,284 5,298 5,264 5,286 5,307 5,281 -26 15,012 40,449
Jul-23 5,098 5,105 5,055 5,090 5,095 5,075 -20 117,806 138,628
Sep-23 5,015 5,054 5,009 5,042 5,050 5,025 -25 25,109 22,975
Nov-23 5,000 5,023 4,990 5,017 5,023 5,002 -21 6,304 28,565
Jan-24 5,006 5,008 4,980 5,004 5,002 4,991 -11 271 2,810
Mar-24 4,996 5,000 4,971 4,999 4,997 4,981 -16 334 4,694
Corn
Turnover: 511,011 lots, or 14.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,759 2,761 2,748 2,753 2,761 2,754 -7 57,343 211,632
Jul-23 2,768 2,771 2,750 2,757 2,766 2,757 -9 341,402 786,631
Sep-23 2,752 2,755 2,737 2,740 2,755 2,743 -12 41,996 227,104
Nov-23 2,718 2,726 2,714 2,718 2,731 2,719 -12 47,438 243,654
Jan-24 2,704 2,707 2,694 2,696 2,707 2,700 -7 4,237 28,015
Mar-24 2,693 2,694 2,687 2,688 2,696 2,690 -6 18,595 19,598
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,366,584 lots, or 4.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,570 3,590 3,537 3,563 3,549 3,568 19 372,849 511,287
Jul-23 3,535 3,552 3,490 3,507 3,531 3,519 -12 124,934 269,765
Aug-23 3,593 3,611 3,547 3,557 3,580 3,578 -2 56,028 168,738
Sep-23 3,596 3,606 3,542 3,556 3,582 3,570 -12 695,725 969,923
Nov-23 3,585 3,602 3,540 3,549 3,575 3,571 -4 46,174 90,025
Dec-23 3,580 3,601 3,540 3,548 3,570 3,569 -1 27,633 36,276
Jan-24 3,533 3,558 3,500 3,505 3,523 3,524 1 38,223 118,229
Mar-24 3,496 3,516 3,462 3,464 3,483 3,486 3 5,018 15,080
Palm Oil
Turnover: 982,931 lots, or 75.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,804 7,844 7,804 7,840 7,804 7,832 28 311 2,262
May-23 7,930 7,960 7,734 7,788 7,802 7,856 54 610,087 212,239
Jun-23 7,682 7,744 7,536 7,576 7,600 7,648 48 36,972 95,319
Jul-23 7,540 7,600 7,412 7,448 7,474 7,520 46 29,685 83,374
Aug-23 7,432 7,482 7,316 7,346 7,372 7,418 46 19,015 53,913
Sep-23 7,310 7,380 7,218 7,230 7,276 7,304 28 257,169 266,194
Oct-23 7,304 7,352 7,200 7,212 7,254 7,286 32 10,847 33,550
Nov-23 7,232 7,330 7,180 7,190 7,232 7,272 40 14,914 18,686
Dec-23 7,254 7,308 7,166 7,182 7,214 7,248 34 1,847 5,813
Jan-24 7,228 7,286 7,142 7,154 7,194 7,220 26 1,813 2,693
Feb-24 7,272 7,288 7,174 7,174 7,226 7,208 -18 84 492
Mar-24 7,246 7,286 7,170 7,170 7,176 7,186 10 187 546
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 744,341 lots, or 6.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,240 8,318 8,172 8,216 8,200 8,246 46 385,902 198,234
Jul-23 8,024 8,106 7,978 7,996 8,020 8,042 22 35,752 107,655
Aug-23 8,020 8,078 7,948 7,972 7,994 8,016 22 11,360 78,630
Sep-23 8,000 8,060 7,916 7,940 7,964 7,988 24 286,644 336,048
Nov-23 7,992 8,036 7,906 7,922 7,952 7,986 34 10,936 40,776
Dec-23 8,004 8,086 7,960 7,990 8,014 8,032 18 8,053 28,826
Jan-24 8,016 8,062 7,938 7,948 7,990 7,996 6 4,409 16,216
Mar-24 7,970 8,028 7,908 7,914 7,962 7,974 12 1,285 5,585
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322