Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on anticipation of the USDA supply and demand reports to be released today. The weekly export sales report was weaker last week but still featured buying from Vietnam and China. Prices were higher after the release of the report on Thursday and built on the gains on Friday. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends turned up. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.06 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 6% planted. From 4% last week, 7% last year, and 7% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.00, 80.30, and 79.80 May, with resistance of 84.90, 84.60 and 85.30 May.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in range trading. Trends remain mostly up in the market. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 270.00, 260.00, and 257.00 May, with resistance at 287.00, 293.00, and 299.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London was closed yesterday despite ideas of little on offer from producers and reports of increasing demand. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to cost differentials with Arabica. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.729 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 173.40 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 180.00, 177.00, and 172.00 May, and resistance is at 190.00, 193.00 and 197.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2320 May. Support is at 2250, 2210, and 2160 May, and resistance is at 2330, 2360, and 2390 May.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London was closed yesterday as the overall bull market held. Trends are up on the daily and the weekly charts. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. India has produced 30.0 million tons of Sugar so far this season, down 3.3% from last year. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil producers are currently active in the futures market placing hedges on the production. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 140 notices were posted against May Sugar 16 futures this morning.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2220, 2180, and 2140 July and resistance is at 2360, 2390, and 2420 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 630.00, 619.00, and 605.00 August and resistance is at 653.00, 659.00, and 665.00 August.
General Comments: New York closed mixed to higher and London was closed yesterday. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast Cocoa arrivals are now estimated at 1.779 million tons, down 4.8% from last year. Callebaut said yesterday that overall chocolate volume has fallen by 3.6% in the first six months with reductions in Europe and Americas outweighing a small increase in Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.377 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2850, 2820, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2960, 2990, and 3020 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2170, 2180, and 2220 May. Support is at 2150, 2100, and 2070 May, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2260 May.