Grains Report 04/11/2023

DJ U.S. April Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. 2022-23 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2021-2022
Corn 1,316 1,182-1,392 1,342 1,377
Soybeans 201 170-235 210 274
Wheat 581 557-616 568 698
2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,353 225 600
Agrisource 1,335 205 560
Allendale 1,342 215 597
Doane 1,335 185 585
Futures Intl 1,292 192 565
Grain Cycles 1,392 225 568
Linn 1,182 235 580
Sid Love Consulting 1,342 210 568
Marex 1,342 210 583
Midland Research 1,342 178 598
Midwest Market Solutions 1,345 204 616
Northstar 1,300 200 575
Ocean State Research 1,317 200 583
Prime Ag 1,242 170 578
RJ O’Brien 1,301 203 604
RMC 1,295 175 585
StoneX 1,277 220 557
US Commodities 1,317 175 570
Vantage RM 1,367 200 568
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,307 190 573

DJ April World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World 2022-23 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Average Range USDA March USDA 2021-22
Corn 295.1 291.7-298.0 296.5 305.7
Soybeans 98.6 96.5-101.9 100.0 99.0
Wheat 267.1 265.0-269.0 267.2 271.5
2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 296.1 99.5 266.8
Allendale 294.7 99.3 268.4
Futures Intl 293.0 97.8 265.5
Grain Cycles 298.0 99.0 267.0
Linn 295.0 96.5 265.0
Marex 298.0 98.0 268.0
Midwest Market Solutions 295.6 99.5 267.4
Northstar 294.6 98.0 267.5
Ocean State Research 295.0 99.0 268.0
Prime Ag 293.0 97.0 267.0
RMC 294.5 98.0 269.0
StoneX 297.3 101.9 266.0
US Commodities 295.0 98.5 267.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 291.7 98.7 266.1

DJ April Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Tuesday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2021-22
Corn 126.4 123.0-131.3 125.0 116.0
Soybeans 153.6 151.0-157.7 153.0 129.5
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 125.5 152.5
Allendale 125.0 153.0
Doane 123.0 152.0
Futures Intl 125.5 155.0
Linn 128.0 153.0
Marex 128.0 154.0
Midland Research 127.0 155.0
Midwest Market Solutions 125.0 152.5
Northstar 125.0 153.0
Ocean State Research 127.0 154.0
Prime Ag 125.0 153.0
RMC 127.0 155.0
StoneX 131.3 157.7
US Commodities 128.0 151.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 125.0 154.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2021-22
Corn 37.0 33.0-39.0 40.0 49.5
Soybeans 29.0 25.0-31.5 33.0 43.9
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 38.0 31.5
Allendale 39.0 31.0
Doane 36.0 25.0
Futures Intl 36.0 29.0
Linn 38.0 28.0
Marex 38.0 28.0
Midland Research 33.0 27.0
Midwest Market Solutions 38.5 31.0
Northstar 38.9 30.0
Ocean State Research 37.0 30.0
Prime Ag 37.0 30.0
RMC 36.0 27.5
StoneX 37.0 28.0
US Commodities 38.0 30.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 35.0 29.5

Crop Progress
Date 9-Apr 2-Apr 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 6 4 7 7
Corn Planted 3 2 2 2
Sorghum Planted 13 13 14 15
Rice Planted 22 17 16 20
Rice Emerged 13 10 9 11
Oats Planted 28 25 28 29
Oats Emerged 25 24 23 24
Barley Planted 1 10 8
Winter Wheat Headed 7 6 5 4

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 17 20 36 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Week 16 20 36 25 3
Winter Wheat Last Year 18 18 32 29 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very hot and dry with little or no relief in sight. Turkey and Russia are talking together about their own plan for exports from the Black Sea and are no including the UN in the talks. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 645 and 602 May. Support is at 668, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 692, 712, and 724 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 882, 888, and 896 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 840, 823, and 814 May. Support is at 867, 860, and 846 March, and resistance is at 887, 899, and 910 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday, and trends are down on the May daily charts. Futures have been in a massive move lower for the past week. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1625, 1620, and 1606 May and resistance is at 1671, 1689, and 1700 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday, with Corn higher on reports of increased demand of cash grain and forecasts for improved field working conditions this week keeping farmers from selling as the weather is expected to turn drier and warmer for much of the central US. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 638, 628, and 625 May, and resistance is at 655, 660, and 668 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 317 May. Support is at 334, 328, and 315 May, and resistance is at 353, 360, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on reduced demand ideas for US Soybeans. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. The basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week, so some areas can get started with fieldwork
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1485 and 1463 May. Support is at 1483, 1471 and 1462 May, and resistance is at 1507, 1527, and 1532 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 428.00 May. Support is at 446.00, 425.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 459.00, 469.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5130, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5630, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying on a lack of offer from Indonesia. Trends are mixed on the daily charts despite news that OPEC was cutting oil production again. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was higher yesterday on planting and fieldwork delays. Forecasts for warmer weather to show up in the Prairies this week could start to allow for fieldwork to start. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 756.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 781.00, 789.00, and 798.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3650 June. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 June, with resistance at 3870, 3980, and 4050 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 6
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 776.90 13.20 May 2023 dn 14.80
Track Thunder Bay 816.40 45.00 May 2023 up 7.70
Track Vancouver 826.40 55.00 May 2023 up 7.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1040.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 1000.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 935.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 880.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1050.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 1010.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 945.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 950.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 790.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4350.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 243.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.414)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 216,228 lots, or 11.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,346 5,346 5,266 5,284 5,355 5,307 -48 37,200 46,352
Jul-23 5,132 5,163 5,049 5,079 5,142 5,095 -47 138,934 133,617
Sep-23 5,083 5,109 5,008 5,031 5,098 5,050 -48 28,046 22,212
Nov-23 5,057 5,086 4,990 5,004 5,073 5,023 -50 10,452 28,172
Jan-24 5,050 5,072 4,980 4,991 5,060 5,002 -58 622 2,675
Mar-24 5,039 5,064 4,971 4,980 5,045 4,997 -48 974 4,577
Corn
Turnover: 735,648 lots, or 20.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,761 2,774 2,753 2,759 2,752 2,761 9 102,588 238,344
Jul-23 2,762 2,776 2,752 2,768 2,748 2,766 18 463,486 784,785
Sep-23 2,749 2,765 2,742 2,753 2,733 2,755 22 55,717 222,686
Nov-23 2,724 2,755 2,717 2,725 2,707 2,731 24 76,991 242,763
Jan-24 2,702 2,715 2,701 2,702 2,699 2,707 8 6,516 27,090
Mar-24 2,691 2,704 2,690 2,695 2,686 2,696 10 30,350 19,343
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,420,761 lots, or 50.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,543 3,585 3,518 3,579 3,551 3,549 -2 441,890 598,765
Jul-23 3,529 3,557 3,508 3,544 3,536 3,531 -5 152,998 267,337
Aug-23 3,583 3,612 3,557 3,603 3,601 3,580 -21 67,584 165,087
Sep-23 3,585 3,611 3,551 3,598 3,598 3,582 -16 637,521 943,050
Nov-23 3,566 3,606 3,549 3,596 3,594 3,575 -19 49,411 87,501
Dec-23 3,569 3,600 3,541 3,589 3,583 3,570 -13 27,881 35,264
Jan-24 3,521 3,555 3,493 3,541 3,534 3,523 -11 38,658 114,219
Mar-24 3,486 3,511 3,455 3,502 3,496 3,483 -13 4,818 14,824
Palm Oil
Turnover: 951,504 lots, or 72.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 – – – 7,804 7,804 7,804 0 50 2,473
May-23 7,692 7,926 7,672 7,908 7,668 7,802 134 614,342 252,359
Jun-23 7,534 7,710 7,524 7,692 7,528 7,600 72 31,044 95,330
Jul-23 7,412 7,572 7,398 7,552 7,444 7,474 30 25,628 83,223
Aug-23 7,340 7,454 7,314 7,432 7,358 7,372 14 13,030 52,780
Sep-23 7,256 7,348 7,220 7,320 7,272 7,276 4 242,585 240,865
Oct-23 7,248 7,320 7,192 7,300 7,250 7,254 4 8,173 33,352
Nov-23 7,218 7,300 7,180 7,280 7,248 7,232 -16 13,598 17,672
Dec-23 7,198 7,284 7,158 7,262 7,226 7,214 -12 1,692 5,399
Jan-24 7,164 7,250 7,134 7,228 7,198 7,194 -4 1,228 2,274
Feb-24 7,194 7,262 7,154 7,262 7,204 7,226 22 127 415
Mar-24 7,172 7,222 7,156 7,222 7,198 7,176 -22 7 379
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 751,211 lots, or 60.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,150 8,282 8,132 8,274 8,200 8,200 0 403,748 215,402
Jul-23 8,000 8,106 7,960 8,066 8,040 8,020 -20 39,192 105,744
Aug-23 7,964 8,070 7,936 8,038 8,024 7,994 -30 10,773 78,098
Sep-23 7,954 8,046 7,908 8,010 7,994 7,964 -30 273,957 317,366
Nov-23 7,934 8,032 7,900 8,002 7,988 7,952 -36 11,661 40,390
Dec-23 8,002 8,080 7,974 8,048 8,052 8,014 -38 6,180 28,283
Jan-24 7,976 8,050 7,946 8,024 8,030 7,990 -40 4,170 15,560
Mar-24 7,964 8,016 7,922 7,994 7,982 7,962 -20 1,530 5,389
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322