Softs Report 04/10/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday on anticipation of a positive export sales report to be released this morning. The weekly export sales report was weaker last week but still featured buying from Vietnam and China. Prices were higher after the release of the report on Thursday and built on the gains on Friday. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends turned up. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.88 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.00, 80.30, and 79.80 May, with resistance of 84.90, 84.60 and 85.30 May.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Apr 6
As of Mar 31. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
May 23 14,350 14,801 -451 15,112 16,405 -1,293
Jul 23 22,904 22,616 288 5,973 5,006 967
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 15,403 13,718 1,685 21,764 22,049 -285
Mar 24 2,324 2,329 -5 1,413 1,359 54
May 24 1,293 1,293 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 836 836 0 484 550 -66
Dec 24 3,012 2,615 397 11,014 10,100 914
Mar 25 40 40 0 0 0 0
May 25 26 26 0 0 0 0
Jul 25 26 26 0 0 0 0
Total 60,214 58,300 1,914 55,760 55,469 291
Open Open Change
Int Int
May 23 81,338 91,647 -10,309
Jul 23 52,544 49,342 3,202
Oct 23 18 19 -1
Dec 23 51,908 48,507 3,401
Mar 24 5,384 5,331 53
May 24 1,937 1,581 356
Jul 24 460 517 -57
Dec 24 4,151 3,734 417
Mar 25 3 3 0
May 25 0 0 0
Jul 25 0 0 0
Total 197,743 200,681 -2,938

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 04, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 241,554
: Positions :
: 24,746 52,198 67,079 67,091 93,000 69,786 15,688 228,701 227,966: 12,853 13,588
: Changes from: March 28, 2023 (Change in open interest: -7,674) :
: -3,217 -4,103 885 -5,446 -4,107 -185 -205 -7,963 -7,529: 289 -144
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.2 21.6 27.8 27.8 38.5 28.9 6.5 94.7 94.4: 5.3 5.6
: Total Traders: 278 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 86 93 56 58 45 24 216 223:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower on Friday but was higher last week and made new highs for the move. Trends remain up in the market. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 270.00, 260.00, and 257.00 May, with resistance at 287.00, 293.00, and 299.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 4, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,935 :
: Positions :
: 703 7,066 1,373 55 0 4,228 469 45 847 336 2,205 :
: Changes from: March 28, 2023 :
: -200 43 5 55 0 90 143 -101 62 -154 617 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.9 59.2 11.5 0.5 0.0 35.4 3.9 0.4 7.1 2.8 18.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 8 11 4 . 0 20 . . 9 9 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on ideas of little on offer from producers and reports of increasing demand. Demand ideas remain strong especially for Robusta on price comparisons with Arabica and demand for Arabica has been maintained. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to cost differentials with Arabica. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil. Brazil exports were 163,444 tons in March, from 202,984 tons last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.730 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 173.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 180.00, 177.00, and 172.00 May, and resistance is at 190.00, 193.00 and 197.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2320 May. Support is at 2250, 2210, and 2160 May, and resistance is at 2330, 2360, and 2390 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 04, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 239,047
: Positions :
: 20,310 20,652 74,437 67,075 120,047 67,829 15,023 229,651 230,159: 9,396 8,888
: Changes from: March 28, 2023 (Change in open interest: 1,801) :
: -2,370 595 3,873 131 -2,390 441 1,465 2,075 3,543: -274 -1,743
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 8.6 31.1 28.1 50.2 28.4 6.3 96.1 96.3: 3.9 3.7
: Total Traders: 354 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 91 122 108 112 45 24 305 286:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/04/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
139,683 65,029 94,280 1,931 7,931 3,709
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.6% 67.5% 1.4% 5.7% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 45 42 5 11 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,483 4,723 6,396 6,810 2,425 15,864
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.5% 3.4% 4.6% 4.9% 1.7% 11.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 8 15 14 10 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
8,461 4,355
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.1% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and at new highs for the move. Trends are up on the daily and the weekly charts. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. India has produced 30.0 million tons of Sugar so far this season, down 3.3% from last year. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Private estimates suggest that production could be 40.3 million tons of Sugar. Brazil producers are currently active in the futures market placing hedges on the production. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2220, 2180, and 2140 July and resistance is at 2270, 2300, and 2330 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 630.00, 619.00, and 605.00 August and resistance is at 653.00, 659.00, and 665.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 04, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,255,950
: Positions :
: 215,570 64,017 309,609 362,550 723,125 256,285 103,976 1,144,014 1,200,727: 111,936 55,224
: Changes from: March 28, 2023 (Change in open interest: 104,510) :
: 5,519 -7,817 37,703 63,457 48,983 -5,442 27,097 101,237 105,966: 3,273 -1,456
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.2 5.1 24.7 28.9 57.6 20.4 8.3 91.1 95.6: 8.9 4.4
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 37 78 68 78 43 21 231 182:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/04/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
94,347 35,183 72,237 8,041 3,481 963
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 37.3% 76.6% 8.5% 3.7% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
124 39 41 9 4 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
33,213 3,044 3,956 1,583 2,190 5,021
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
35.2% 3.2% 4.2% 1.7% 2.3% 5.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 7 15 7 5 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,387 3,455
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.8% 3.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed mixed to higher and London closed higher again Friday. New York was a little lower for the week but London closed higher and at new highs for the move.. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast Cocoa arrivals are now estimated at 1.779 million tons, down 4.8% from last year. Callebaut said yesterday that overall chocolate volume has fallen by 3.6% in the first six months with reductions in Europe and Americas outweighing a small increase in Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.360 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2850, 2820, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2960, 2990, and 3020 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2170, 2180, and 2220 May. Support is at 2150, 2100, and 2070 May, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2260 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 04, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 496,475
: Positions :
: 90,235 55,261 164,107 155,519 220,859 70,341 43,569 480,202 483,797: 16,273 12,679
: Changes from: March 28, 2023 (Change in open interest: 30,986) :
: 7,053 5,265 17,563 9,821 10,732 -2,728 -1,935 31,709 31,626: -723 -640
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.2 11.1 33.1 31.3 44.5 14.2 8.8 96.7 97.4: 3.3 2.6
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 65 98 43 46 32 20 220 192:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/04/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
383,150 145,393 257,126 32,739 16,271 30,924
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 37.9% 67.1% 8.5% 4.2% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 43 42 16 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
91,122 8,585 24,656 14,094 4,345 38,577
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.8% 2.2% 6.4% 3.7% 1.1% 10.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 14 24 17 8 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,645 2,666
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322