About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. February Coffee, Cocoa Imports-April 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Feb 2023—- —-Jan 2023—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 100,715,164 222,076,937 107,746,370 237,580,746
coffee, roasted 7,299,805 16,096,070 8,717,382 19,221,827
coffee, soluble
instant 4,706,990 10,378,913 5,408,016 11,924,675
cocoa beans 39,964,895 88,122,593 46,866,919 103,341,556
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,031,996 4,480,551 2,032,602 4,481,887
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 9,762,260 21,525,783 11,474,418 25,301,092
cocoa paste,
not defatted 6,330,996 13,959,846 8,409,519 18,542,989
cocoa paste
defatted 7,409,078 16,337,017 9,033,156 19,918,109
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 6,204,333 13,680,554 9,757,864 21,516,090
cocoa powder,
sweetened 28,094 61,947 33,881 74,708
coating 4,928,339 10,866,987 5,527,308 12,187,714
candy containing
chocolate 10,137,138 22,352,389 10,007,964 22,067,561

General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday on anticipation of a positive export sales report to be released this morning. The weekly export sales report was strong last week and featured buying from Vietnam and China. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends turned up. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.75 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 160,500 bales this year and 15,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 9,100 bales this year and 800 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 79.80, 77.70, and 71.30 May. Support is at 80.30, 79.80, and 77.90 May, with resistance of 82.30, 84.00 and 84.60 May.

DJ U.S. Feb Cotton Exports-Apr 5
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Feb 23 Jan 23 Dec 22 Feb 22
Upland, under 1 inch 5,320,074 3,732,872 2,638,733 7,284,731
1 to 1 1/8 inch 101,325,240 74,335,898 47,190,157 96,005,228
upland 1 1/8 and over 2,637,406 5,677,678 4,102,525 6,288,104
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 191,053,605 130,708,954 94,548,196 196,595,612
All cotton 300,336,325 214,466,402 148,479,611 306,173,675
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Feb 23 Jan 23 Dec 22 Feb 22
Upland, under 1 inch 24,435 17,145 12,120 33,458
1 to 1 1/8 inch 465,383 341,422 216,743 440,948
upland 1 1/8 and over 12,114 26,077 18,843 28,881
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 877,502 600,341 434,256 902,956
All cotton 1,379,433 984,986 681,961 1,406,244

General Comments: FCOJ was higher and made new highs for the move for one more day. Trends remain up in the market. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 270.00, 260.00, and 257.00 May, with resistance at 287.00, 293.00, and 299.00 May.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on ideas of little on offer from producers and reports of increasing demand. Demand ideas remain strong for Robusta on price comparisons with Arabica and demand for Arabica has been maintained. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to cost differentials with Arabica. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil. Brazil exports were 163,444 tons in March, from 202,984 tons last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.731 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 182.00 May. Support is at 177.00, 172.00, and 165.00 May, and resistance is at 184.00, 190.00 and 193.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2320 May. Support is at 2250, 2210, and 2160 May, and resistance is at 2330, 2360, and 2390 May.

General Comments: New York closed slightly lower and London closed higher and at new highs for the move yesterday. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. India has produced 30.0 million tons of Sugar so far this season, down 3.3% from last year. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Private estimates suggest that production could be 40.3 million tons of Sugar. Brazil producers are currently active in the futures market placing hedges on the production. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2220, 2180, and 2140 July and resistance is at 2270, 2300, and 2330 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 630.00, 619.00, and 605.00 August and resistance is at 653.00, 659.00, and 665.00 August.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast Cocoa arrivals are now estimated at 1.779 million tons, down 4.8% from last year. Callebaut said yesterday that overall chocolate volume has fallen by 3.6% in the first six months with reductions in Europe and Americas outweighing a small increase in Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.359 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2850, 2820, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2960, 2990, and 3020 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2170, 2180, and 2220 May. Support is at 2150, 2100, and 2070 May, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2260 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322