Grains Report 04/06/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 6
For the week ended Mar 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 193.6 -10.2 18140.8 19142.1 2733.1 696.4
hrw 25.6 -30.0 4923.7 7547.3 615.3 109.6
srw 35.4 19.8 2824.7 2773.3 487.9 411.8
hrs 54.3 0.0 5485.4 5292.1 888.7 94.9
white 78.4 0.0 4538.8 3340.0 664.1 43.2
durum 0.0 0.0 368.2 189.4 77.1 36.9
corn 1246.6 26.2 37211.7 54436.6 16832.1 2000.4
soybeans 155.3 -48.3 49916.2 56086.7 4849.9 1700.9
soymeal 245.5 32.0 9009.9 9221.6 2685.9 306.0
soyoil 27.6 0.0 103.6 639.6 69.5 0.6
upland cotton 160.5 15.9 11620.9 14260.1 4809.0 1388.3
pima cotton 9.1 0.8 183.7 445.3 66.4 4.7
sorghum 0.0 0.0 1499.7 6749.6 680.3 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.5 20.4 3.3 6.0
rice 102.4 0.0 1687.2 2473.7 495.2 18.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on what appeared to be new selling from speculators. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see a lot of snow. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 645 and 602 May. Support is at 675, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 692, 712, and 724 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 830 and 792 May. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 875, 888, and 896 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 840, 823, and 814 May. Support is at 871, 860, and 846 March, and resistance is at 887, 899, and 910 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed yesterday, with nearby months a little higher and new crop months lower. Trends are down on the May charts. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1568 May. Support is at 1669, 1665, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1733, 1744, and 1749 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday on reports of increased selling of cash gain by American farmers and forecasts for improved field working conditions net week as the weather is expected to turn drier and warmer for much of the central US. Oats were lower and trends are down in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. Safrinha Corn planting in Brazil is delayed. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 647, 643, and 638 May, and resistance is at 660, 668, and 672 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 317 May. Support is at 336, 333, and 328 May, and resistance is at 353, 360, and 3698 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again yesterday. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. The basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1497, 1488 and 1483 May, and resistance is at 1528, 1532, and 1544 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 447.00 and 428.00 May. Support is at 447.00, 425.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 459.00, 469.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5500, 5390, and 5130 May, with resistance at 5630, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again today on follow through buying tied to the OPEC news.. Trends turned up with the higher close yesterday on news that OPEC was cutting oil production again. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Canola was lower on weakness in competing markets and forecasts for warmer weather to show up in the Prairies that could start to allow for fieldwork to start. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 763.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 780.00, 789.00, and 798.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3970 June. Support is at 3830, 3800, and 3700 June, with resistance at 3980, 4050, and 4170 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms developing. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 5
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 791.70 14.40 May 2023 dn 1.70
Track Thunder Bay 808.70 45.00 May 2023 dn 13.60
Track Vancouver 818.70 55.00 May 2023 dn 13.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1020.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 970.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 940.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1030.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 980.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 950.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 955.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 775.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4250.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 242.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.397)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 137,731 lots, or 7.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,368 5,368 5,285 5,299 5,361 5,327 -34 65,339 78,750
Jul-23 5,262 5,274 5,188 5,188 5,263 5,236 -27 47,154 92,940
Sep-23 5,200 5,233 5,164 5,167 5,218 5,198 -20 11,565 13,077
Nov-23 5,175 5,204 5,142 5,143 5,194 5,173 -21 12,782 31,977
Jan-24 5,171 5,185 5,129 5,131 5,168 5,152 -16 389 1,383
Mar-24 5,156 5,173 5,121 5,125 5,152 5,137 -15 502 2,854
Corn
Turnover: 445,866 lots, or 12.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,740 2,743 2,727 2,728 2,742 2,732 -10 71,713 308,551
Jul-23 2,717 2,722 2,703 2,711 2,721 2,711 -10 277,165 778,558
Sep-23 2,700 2,707 2,692 2,700 2,703 2,699 -4 30,550 200,874
Nov-23 2,683 2,689 2,679 2,682 2,683 2,683 0 41,744 238,960
Jan-24 2,685 2,692 2,681 2,686 2,685 2,686 1 2,247 23,526
Mar-24 2,680 2,686 2,677 2,679 2,681 2,681 0 22,447 16,989
Soymeal
Turnover: 940,040 lots, or 34.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,628 3,641 3,595 3,598 3,656 3,620 -36 414,771 715,444
Jul-23 3,610 3,610 3,565 3,579 3,637 3,589 -48 77,066 216,830
Aug-23 3,678 3,678 3,635 3,650 3,698 3,657 -41 27,506 144,891
Sep-23 3,644 3,664 3,627 3,637 3,686 3,648 -38 352,082 826,011
Nov-23 3,643 3,652 3,618 3,627 3,673 3,639 -34 26,077 74,132
Dec-23 3,620 3,630 3,601 3,611 3,650 3,618 -32 15,729 28,948
Jan-24 3,570 3,570 3,541 3,552 3,587 3,557 -30 24,339 106,562
Mar-24 3,522 3,553 3,510 3,526 3,543 3,523 -20 2,470 13,427
Palm Oil
Turnover: 543,909 lots, or 41.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,818 7,818 7,800 7,800 7,818 7,804 -14 851 3,104
May-23 7,770 7,886 7,730 7,786 7,824 7,822 -2 376,492 287,065
Jun-23 7,688 7,746 7,640 7,644 7,730 7,700 -30 15,640 97,614
Jul-23 7,562 7,646 7,532 7,540 7,624 7,596 -28 15,254 79,312
Aug-23 7,458 7,542 7,442 7,448 7,520 7,508 -12 10,403 50,670
Sep-23 7,370 7,444 7,320 7,346 7,428 7,402 -26 103,732 191,507
Oct-23 7,346 7,396 7,300 7,316 7,388 7,364 -24 6,583 31,670
Nov-23 7,286 7,370 7,276 7,298 7,372 7,338 -34 10,928 15,490
Dec-23 7,302 7,358 7,280 7,280 7,354 7,324 -30 2,817 2,660
Jan-24 7,272 7,338 7,240 7,246 7,342 7,300 -42 1,068 1,953
Feb-24 7,294 7,312 7,266 7,266 7,354 7,290 -64 3 291
Mar-24 7,268 7,300 7,268 7,276 7,324 7,276 -48 138 372
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 510,134 lots, or 42.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,298 8,418 8,266 8,306 8,354 8,358 4 311,393 265,413
Jul-23 8,128 8,188 8,078 8,086 8,208 8,138 -70 28,905 108,627
Aug-23 8,078 8,146 8,042 8,050 8,180 8,106 -74 7,480 77,325
Sep-23 8,050 8,130 8,002 8,028 8,162 8,082 -80 150,166 279,402
Nov-23 8,070 8,116 7,986 8,022 8,142 8,068 -74 6,570 38,838
Dec-23 8,110 8,154 8,050 8,082 8,182 8,112 -70 2,509 29,444
Jan-24 8,098 8,130 7,974 8,056 8,160 8,084 -76 2,509 14,892
Mar-24 8,018 8,096 7,976 8,018 8,130 8,062 -68 602 4,471
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322