Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday despite news that Saudi Arabia and Russia will cut back on oil production. That should mean that less poly products are created and sold in competition with Cotton, but also could put a hurt on any recovery hopes for world economics. The weekly export sales report was strong last week and featured buying from Vietnam and China. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends turned up. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.73 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 4% planted, from 4% last year and 4% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 79.80, 77.70, and 71.30 May. Support is at 80.30, 79.80, and 77.90 May, with resistance of 82.30, 84.00 and 84.60 May.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and made new highs for the move. Trends remain up in the market. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 270.00, 260.00, and 257.00 May, with resistance at 281.00, 287.00, and 293.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed a little higher yesterday on ideas of little on offer from producers. Demand ideas remain strong for Robusta on price comparisons with Arabica and demand for Arabica has been maintained. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to cost differentials with Arabica. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil. Brazil exports were 163,444 tons in March, from 202,984 tons last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.732 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 172.00, 165.00, and 162.00 May, and resistance is at 180.00, 184.00 and 190.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2140, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2250, 2270, and 2300 May.
General Comments: New York closed slightly lower and London closed higher and at new highs for the move yesterday. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Brazil producers are currently active in the futures market placing hedges on the production. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2140, 2090, and 2050 July and resistance is at 2240, 2270, and 2300 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 621.00, 605.00, and 592.00 August and resistance is at 635.00, 641.00, and 647.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast Cocoa arrivals are now estimated at 1.779 million tons, down 4.8% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.356 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2850, 2820, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2910, 2960, and 2990 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2030 May, with resistance at 2160, 2200, and 2230 May.