About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. February Grain Imports-April 5
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Feb 2023—- —-Jan 2023—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 1,019,088 2,247,089 690,236 1,521,970
spring wheat 217,728 480,090 244,944 540,102
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 1,236,816 2,727,179 935,180 2,062,072
barley 33,813,334 74,558,401 31,762,647 70,036,637
oats 1,223,755 2,698,380 613,400 1,352,547
corn 24,209,311 53,381,531 45,648,890 100,655,802
other corn 6,434,043 14,187,065 6,298,779 13,888,808
TOTAL CORN 30,643,354 67,568,596 51,947,669 114,544,610

DJ U.S. Feb Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-April 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Feb 2023—- —-Jan 2023—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 60,314,293 132,993,016 16,462,523 36,299,863
palm kernel oil 40,556,772 89,427,682 20,581,635 45,382,505
palm oil 193,440,701 426,536,746 177,135,567 390,583,925
soybean 27,527,709 60,698,598 5,260,656 11,599,746
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 15,213,197 33,545,099 11,450,103 25,247,477
rapeseed oil
edible 217,679,868 479,984,109 228,028,084 502,801,925
rapeseed oil,
inedible 86,245 190,170 202,573 446,673

DJ U.S. Feb Grain Exports-Apr 5
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Feb 23 Jan 23 Dec 22 Feb 22
Barley 1,415,528 1,238,917 1,843,855 2,052,363
Corn /1 3,274,020,000 3,171,032,000 3,692,464,000 5,899,894,000
Sorghum 214,226,000 86,857,000 102,477,000 538,443,000
Oats 3,093,709 2,842,981 632,986 1,538,679
Rye 0 225,469 70,000 0
Wheat /1 1,871,804,084 1,788,623,239 1,078,808,764 1,727,577,111
wheat flour /1 12,502,989 12,279,095 13,354,483 17,978,521
Malt 30,691,942 30,426,272 21,320,098 23,856,015
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Feb 23 Jan 23 Dec 22 Feb 22
Barley 65,014 56,902 84,687 94,263
Corn /1 128,891,151 124,836,734 145,364,395 232,266,183
Sorghum 8,433,619 3,419,374 4,034,300 21,197,347
Oats 213,137 195,864 43,609 106,005
Rye 0 8,876 2,756 0
Wheat /1 68,776,321 65,719,979 39,639,030 63,476,941
wheat flour /1 275,644 270,708 294,416 396,359
Malt 67,664,161 67,078,459 47,002,778 52,593,519
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. Feb Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Apr 5
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Feb 23 Jan 23 Dec 22 Feb 22
soybeans 5,375,073,024 8,559,249,463 8,294,774,812 6,392,778,308
soyoil 11,856,133 7,000,962 15,852,182 129,017,986
crude 6,410,477 202,274 10,366,414 110,980,084
refined 77,424 302,281 210,194 178,816
other/1 5,185,668 6,209,943 5,070,595 17,671,309
hydrogenated 182,564 286,464 204,979 187,777
cottonseed oil 3,582,216 2,973,369 2,109,015 5,490,815
crude 86,949 107,564 79,998 947,598
refined 2,649,243 2,709,131 758,985 1,192,461
other/1 648,577 83,898 406,170 3,197,870
hydrogenated 197,447 72,776 863,862 152,886
sunseeds 135,909 49,969 298,748 112,054
sunseed oil 4,094,166 4,996,193 2,430,105 8,767,299
rapeseed 19,526,555 15,328,254 16,143,519 9,988,721
rapeseed oil 3,819,488 11,428,314 5,736,156 12,697,781
crude 1,541,864 7,777,646 2,223,516 3,656,176
refined 2,277,624 3,650,668 3,512,640 9,041,605
linseed meal 100,600 170,430 188,887 0
cottonseed meal 5,242,655 4,545,641 3,169,735 1,829,597
soymeal 717,432,075 1,033,322,929 950,162,965 949,508,867
soymeal/flour 199,550,240 359,537,287 243,834,145 207,618,688
soymeal hulls 8,319,000 12,114,000 1,905,000 20,729,000
lard 1,049,477 952,510 1,640,158 827,416
edible tallow 4,491,008 6,122,653 4,012,023 11,161,578
inedible tallow 8,383,515 26,948,012 20,244,215 15,068,259
ch white grease 0 0 97,155 18,153
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Feb 23 Jan 23 Dec 22 Feb 22
soybeans 197,498,098 314,495,353 304,777,673 234,891,982
soyoil 26,138,304 15,434,482 34,948,085 284,436,019
crude 14,132,685 445,938 22,854,035 244,669,246
refined 170,691 666,416 463,399 394,222
other/1 11,432,443 13,690,583 11,178,750 38,958,574
hydrogenated 402,485 631,545 451,901 413,977
cottonseed oil 7,897,436 6,555,158 4,649,583 12,105,177
crude 191,690 237,138 176,365 2,089,096
refined 5,840,582 5,972,613 1,673,276 2,628,927
other/1 1,429,868 184,963 895,452 7,050,098
hydrogenated 435,296 160,444 1,904,490 337,056
sunseeds 299,628 110,163 658,627 247,037
sunseed oil 9,026,093 11,014,722 5,357,465 19,328,589
rapeseed 43,048,692 33,793,021 35,590,373 22,021,364
rapeseed oil 8,420,531 25,195,124 12,646,061 27,993,820
crude 3,399,229 17,146,777 4,902,015 8,060,490
refined 5,021,302 8,048,347 7,744,047 19,933,330
linseed meal 111 188 208 0
cottonseed meal 5,779 5,011 3,494 2,017
soymeal 790,825 1,139,032 1,047,365 1,046,644
soymeal flour/me 219,964 396,318 268,778 228,858
soymeal hulls 9,170 13,353 2,100 22,850
lard 2,313,701 2,099,925 3,615,930 1,824,140
edible tallow 9,900,980 13,498,142 8,844,998 24,607,072
inedible tallow 18,482,490 59,410,207 44,630,862 33,219,830
ch white grease 0 0 214,190 40,021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on what appeared to be new selling from speculators. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see a lot of snow. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 690, 681, and 675 May, with resistance at 712, 724, and 728 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 864, 853, and 843 May, with resistance at 888, 896, and 898 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 910 and 938 May. Support is at 882, 871, and 860 March, and resistance is at 899, 910, and 913 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was much lower again yesterday. Trends are down on the May charts. The weekly export sales report last week showed weaker demand. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1568 May. Support is at 1669, 1665, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1733, 1744, and 1749 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 5
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.45 11.30 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.22 11.99 0.00
Brokens 10.73 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 6.81
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 6.93

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on reports of increased selling of cash gain by American farmers. Oats were lower and trends are down in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. Safrinha Corn planting in Brazil is delayed. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 125,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 647, 643, and 638 May, and resistance is at 656, 668, and 672 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 317 May. Support is at 336, 333, and 328 May, and resistance is at 345, 353, and 360 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. The basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 276,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1497, 1488 and 1483 May, and resistance is at 1528, 1532, and 1544 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 447.00, and 435.00 May, and resistance is at 475.00, 485.00, and 490.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5500, 5390, and 5130 May, with resistance at 5810, 5980, and 6050 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again today on follow through buying tied to the OPEC news.. Trends turned up with the higher close yesterday on news that OPEC was cutting oil production again. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Canola was lower on weakness in competing markets and forecasts for warmer weather to show up in the Prairies that could start to allow for fieldwork to start. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 763.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 789.00, 798.00, and 803.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3970 June. Support is at 3890, 3830, and 3800 June, with resistance at 3980, 4050, and 4170 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms developing. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 4
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 793.40 17.00 May 2023 up 15.50
Track Thunder Bay 822.30 45.00 May 2023 dn 4.10
Track Vancouver 833.30 55.00 May 2023 up 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1025.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 985.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 960.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1035.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 995.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 970.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 910.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 955.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 780.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4250.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 242.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.397)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322