Grains Report 04/04/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 3
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Apr 03, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 30, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/30/2023 03/23/2023 03/31/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,010
CORN 1,097,654 688,379 1,540,562 19,368,736 30,585,993
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 100 6,486 500
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 9,920 176,695 285,297 1,101,277 4,452,590
SOYBEANS 499,054 892,086 742,337 45,455,997 44,209,956
SUNFLOWER 0 0 192 2,408 724
WHEAT 168,543 403,853 318,304 16,859,451 17,218,132
Total 1,775,171 2,161,013 2,886,792 82,796,709 96,478,229
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 2-Apr 26-Mar 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 4 4 5
Corn Planted 2 2 2
Sorghum Planted 13 13 13
Rice Planted 17 11 14
Rice Emerged 10 6 6
Oats Planted 25 25 25
Oats Emerged 24 23 23
Winter Wheat Headed 6 4 2

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed, with Kansas City and Minneapolis a little lower but Chicago a little higher. USDA did not release a condition report today but did show that Winter Wheat is now ahead of average in heading out.. Russia announced it is increasing taxes on exports of Wheat. Cargill and Viterra said that they will shut export programs in Russia and might be bowing to Russian pressure to do so as the country is moving to take more control of the export program. ADM is also considering making the move. Trends are mostly up on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered snow showers in southern areas. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 690, 681, and 675 May, with resistance at 712, 724, and 728 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 945 May. Support is at 864, 853, and 843 May, with resistance at 888, 896, and 898 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 910 and 938 May. Support is at 882, 871, and 860 March, and resistance is at 899, 910, and 913 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday. Trends are down on the May charts. The weekly export sales report showed weaker demand. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1671 and 1568 May. Support is at 1695, 1665, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1744, 1749, and 1760 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mostly higher yesterday but May closed a little lower. Oats were lower and trends are down in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 681 May. Support is at 655, 647, and 643 May, and resistance is at 668, 672, and 682 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 317 May. Support is at 348, 341, and 338 May, and resistance is at 369, 374, and 380 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday, but Soybean Meal was lower. Saudi Arabia joined Russia in cutting Crude Oil production and Crude Oil rallied and dragged Soybean Oil and Soybeans along for the ride. The trends are up on the daily reports for Soybeans and Soybean Meal and are turning up for Soybean Oil. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. The basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1497, 1488 and 1483 May, and resistance is at 1532, 1544, and 1566 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 476.00, 487.00, and 516.-00 May. Support is at 457.00, 453.00, and 447.00 May, and resistance is at 475.00, 485.00, and 490.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5850, 6080, and 6150 May. Support is at 5620, 5390, and 5130 May, with resistance at 5810, 5980, and 6050 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again today on follow through buying tied to the OPEC news.. Trends turned up with the higher close yesterday on news that OPEC was cutting oil production again. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has revoked some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry there. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia has had bad weather. Canola was higher on news that Saudi Arabia had joined Russia in cutting Crude oil production in a move that should benefit vegetable oils demand. There are some ideas that Canola futures have fallen enough for now. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 763.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 798.00, 803.00, and 821.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3970 June. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 June, with resistance at 4050, 4170, and 4320 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms developing. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 777.90 10.00 May 2023 up 3.30
Track Thunder Bay 821.40 45.00 May 2023 up 23.50
Track Vancouver 831.40 55.00 May 2023 dn 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1030.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May 995.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 955.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 910.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1040.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May 1005.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 965.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 920.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 785.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4300.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 246.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.404)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,520 lots, or 5.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,382 5,397 5,343 5,358 5,379 5,361 -18 59,492 81,013
Jul-23 5,292 5,308 5,235 5,243 5,292 5,263 -29 31,363 83,916
Sep-23 5,242 5,251 5,202 5,209 5,248 5,218 -30 7,160 10,656
Nov-23 5,213 5,215 5,175 5,185 5,218 5,194 -24 12,766 33,514
Jan-24 5,184 5,185 5,156 5,164 5,192 5,168 -24 256 1,211
Mar-24 5,166 5,166 5,145 5,150 5,180 5,152 -28 483 2,565
Corn
Turnover: 863,050 lots, or 23.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,738 2,754 2,727 2,744 2,745 2,742 -3 140,920 321,950
Jul-23 2,719 2,735 2,705 2,722 2,727 2,721 -6 528,643 769,219
Sep-23 2,709 2,716 2,689 2,706 2,713 2,703 -10 60,077 194,451
Nov-23 2,677 2,693 2,670 2,690 2,684 2,683 -1 76,421 240,597
Jan-24 2,683 2,695 2,677 2,690 2,689 2,685 -4 5,868 22,923
Mar-24 2,680 2,695 2,672 2,688 2,685 2,681 -4 51,121 16,120
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,178,532 lots, or 43.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,643 3,676 3,638 3,668 3,584 3,656 72 597,669 748,309
Jul-23 3,624 3,665 3,623 3,640 3,575 3,637 62 82,713 204,705
Aug-23 3,692 3,723 3,688 3,698 3,636 3,698 62 43,644 143,102
Sep-23 3,688 3,707 3,676 3,688 3,648 3,686 38 359,927 782,304
Nov-23 3,661 3,693 3,661 3,671 3,625 3,673 48 32,664 73,946
Dec-23 3,641 3,666 3,639 3,653 3,612 3,650 38 19,665 29,319
Jan-24 3,595 3,603 3,575 3,584 3,568 3,587 19 38,272 107,833
Mar-24 3,533 3,559 3,533 3,548 3,533 3,543 10 3,978 13,059
Palm Oil
Turnover: 764,096 lots, or 59.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,842 7,850 7,790 7,810 7,758 7,818 60 1,877 3,624
May-23 7,798 7,888 7,764 7,844 7,748 7,824 76 545,270 306,220
Jun-23 7,682 7,782 7,682 7,740 7,680 7,730 50 23,890 98,104
Jul-23 7,574 7,680 7,574 7,642 7,564 7,624 60 19,527 79,639
Aug-23 7,478 7,568 7,478 7,548 7,472 7,520 48 14,784 50,399
Sep-23 7,420 7,466 7,388 7,444 7,390 7,428 38 134,294 181,980
Oct-23 7,378 7,422 7,354 7,394 7,348 7,388 40 7,542 31,658
Nov-23 7,398 7,402 7,338 7,372 7,332 7,372 40 14,465 15,244
Dec-23 7,350 7,386 7,322 7,362 7,324 7,354 30 1,316 1,425
Jan-24 7,338 7,372 7,312 7,340 7,306 7,342 36 1,100 1,841
Feb-24 7,356 7,364 7,350 7,350 7,266 7,354 88 7 292
Mar-24 7,356 7,356 7,316 7,326 7,228 7,324 96 24 240
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 719,239 lots, or 5.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,306 8,412 8,292 8,410 8,288 8,354 66 466,101 271,662
Jul-23 8,178 8,252 8,178 8,208 8,192 8,208 16 30,282 105,137
Aug-23 8,170 8,224 8,150 8,180 8,170 8,180 10 13,950 77,103
Sep-23 8,148 8,212 8,124 8,150 8,150 8,162 12 188,178 268,957
Nov-23 8,120 8,196 8,108 8,132 8,120 8,142 22 10,349 38,608
Dec-23 8,154 8,220 8,152 8,174 8,150 8,182 32 6,267 29,554
Jan-24 8,164 8,190 8,126 8,148 8,128 8,160 32 3,363 14,622
Mar-24 8,106 8,154 8,100 8,114 8,114 8,130 16 749 4,311
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322