Softs Report 04/03/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on Friday in response to the planted area reports released by USDA. The trade expected planted area to be about 11.2 million acres this year and USD estimated the area at 11.4 million acres. Cotton closed higher for the week last week as demand returns to the market. The weekly export sales report was strong yesterday and featured buying from Vietnam and China. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends turned p. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8770 and 9910 May. Support is at 81.20, 80.30, and 79.80 May, with resistance of 84.00, 84.60 and 85.30 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 249,228
: Positions :
: 27,963 56,301 66,194 72,537 97,107 69,971 15,893 236,664 235,495: 12,563 13,733
: Changes from: March 21, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,773) :
: 213 -2,346 3,047 2,176 3,487 -1,379 623 4,056 4,810: -283 -1,037
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.2 22.6 26.6 29.1 39.0 28.1 6.4 95.0 94.5: 5.0 5.5
: Total Traders: 291 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 89 93 59 57 47 24 229 223:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and closed near the highs of the week. Trends remain up in the market. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. The Florida Dept of Citrus said that FCOJ inventories are down 38% from last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 260.00, 257.00, and 254.00 May, with resistance at 275.00, 281.00, and 287.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,233 :
: Positions :
: 902 7,023 1,368 0 0 4,138 326 146 785 490 1,588 :
: Changes from: March 21, 2023 :
: -582 -430 -54 -68 -37 -231 18 40 22 -109 166 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 62.5 12.2 0.0 0.0 36.8 2.9 1.3 7.0 4.4 14.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 8 11 4 0 0 22 . 5 9 9 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower last week and London closed higher on ideas of little on offer from producers. Demand ideas remain strong for Robusta on price comparisons with Arabica and demand for Arabica has suffered. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell. Trends remain down in New York but are sideways in London. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to cost differentials with Arabica. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.742 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 165.00, 164.00, and 161.00 May. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 158.00 May, and resistance is at 173.00, 176.00 and 180.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2140, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2250, 2270, and 2300 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 237,246
: Positions :
: 22,679 20,058 70,564 66,944 122,437 67,389 13,558 227,576 226,616: 9,670 10,631
: Changes from: March 21, 2023 (Change in open interest: -332) :
: -2,623 -1,222 906 -1,798 -3,083 1,399 1,336 -2,116 -2,063: 1,784 1,731
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 8.5 29.7 28.2 51.6 28.4 5.7 95.9 95.5: 4.1 4.5
: Total Traders: 351 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 86 120 107 110 45 23 304 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/28/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
132,704 60,047 87,406 1,579 7,464 2,494
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 45.2% 65.9% 1.2% 5.6% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 47 43 7 9 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
29,215 4,376 8,683 6,697 2,315 16,341
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.0% 3.3% 6.5% 5.0% 1.7% 12.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 8 16 14 10 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,648 3,625
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.8% 2.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher and at new highs for the move last week. Supplies are tight. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Brazil producers are currently active in the futures market placing hedges on the production. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2140, 2090, and 2050 July and resistance is at 2210, 2240, and 2270 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 605.00, 592.00, and 585.00 August and resistance is at 623.00, 629.00, and 635.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,151,440
: Positions :
: 210,051 71,834 271,906 299,094 674,142 261,727 76,879 1,042,777 1,094,760: 108,663 56,680
: Changes from: March 21, 2023 (Change in open interest: 43,610) :
: 8,549 -2,694 18,728 14,700 30,251 -3,017 -2,777 38,960 43,507: 4,650 103
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.2 6.2 23.6 26.0 58.5 22.7 6.7 90.6 95.1: 9.4 4.9
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 38 77 66 81 43 24 226 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/28/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
93,054 33,403 70,715 8,093 3,363 1,226
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 35.9% 76.0% 8.7% 3.6% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
121 31 39 9 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,767 2,713 3,826 2,137 2,359 4,957
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
35.2% 2.9% 4.1% 2.3% 2.5% 5.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 6 15 10 6 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,645 3,895
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.1% 4.2%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and were higher for the week. London was initially lower on Thursday and actually hit the first target down for the move before rebounding to close back in the trading range and with slight gains. New York held to the recent range and closed at the upper end of the range. New York appears ready to make a new leg up on the charts. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast exports are now 1.7857 million tons down 1.5% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.232 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2850, 2820, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2960, 2990, and 3020 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2170, 2180, and 2220 May. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2070 May, with resistance at 2160, 2200, and 2230 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 465,489
: Positions :
: 83,182 49,996 146,544 145,698 210,127 73,069 45,504 448,493 452,171: 16,996 13,319
: Changes from: March 21, 2023 (Change in open interest: 38,375) :
: 22,993 2,758 13,017 -4,565 19,255 5,826 1,333 37,272 36,363: 1,104 2,013
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.9 10.7 31.5 31.3 45.1 15.7 9.8 96.3 97.1: 3.7 2.9
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 66 96 46 46 33 20 223 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/28/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
373,127 142,245 245,506 30,723 20,416 28,993
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 38.1% 65.8% 8.2% 5.5% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 43 42 18 8 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
87,306 8,572 26,479 14,965 3,232 37,291
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.4% 2.3% 7.1% 4.0% 0.9% 10.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 14 25 20 8 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,125 2,638
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322