Grains Report 03/31/2023

DJ Survey: 2023 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2022
Corn 90.849 87.7-92.1 88.579
Soybeans 88.235 87.4-89.6 87.450
All Wheat 48.689 45.7-50.0 45.738
Winter Wheat 36.324 34.3-37.0 33.271
Spring Wheat 10.896 9.8-11.6 10.835
Durum Wheat 1.619 1.2-1.8 1.632
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
Allendale 90.4 87.8 48.7 36.5 10.6 1.6
Doane 92.1 87.4 49.6 37.0 11.0 1.7
Farm Futures 87.7 89.6 45.7 34.4 10.2 1.2
Futures Intl 91.0 89.0 37.0 11.2 1.7
Grain Cycles 90.3 88.6 49.0 36.8 10.5 1.7
Linn Group 91.2 88.8 50.0 36.8 11.6 1.6
Sid Love Consulting 90.0 88.5 49.5 37.0 10.8 1.8
Marex 91.0 88.0 49.6 37.0 11.0 1.6
Midland Research 90.7 88.2 49.3 36.5 11.1 1.7
Midwest Market Solutions 91.1 88.1 48.9 36.8 10.5 1.6
Northstar 91.3 88.2 49.0 36.4 11.2 1.6
Ocean State Research 91.5 88.5 49.5 37.0 11.0 1.5
Prime Ag 91.5 87.5 47.5
Risk Mgmt Commodities 90.5 88.0 47.5 34.3 11.6 1.6
RJ O’Brien 90.5 88.0 48.6 36.5 10.5 1.6
StoneX 92.0 88.5 48.2 36.7 9.8 1.7
Vantage RM 91.2 87.5 49.1 35.8 11.5 1.8
Zaner Ag Hedge 91.4 88.1 48.1 35.1 11.3 1.7

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2023 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 2022 Dec. 2022
Corn 7,480 7,240-7,830 7,758 10,809
Soybeans 1,753 1,660-1,910 1,932 3,022
Wheat 928 875-965 1,029 1,280
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 7,558 1,737 917
Doane 7,414 1,677 923
Futures Intl 7,481 1,770 928
Grain Cycles 7,325 1,730 945
Linn Group 7,328 1,660 891
Sid Love Consulting 7,385 1,717 952
Marex 7,725 1,910 965
Midland Research 7,369 1,735 929
Northstar 7,830 1,725 925
Ocean State Research 7,532 1,717 920
Prime Ag 7,550 1,700 875
Risk Mgmt Commodities 7,650 1,895 960
RJ O’Brien 7,378 1,707 921
StoneX 7,410 1,716 932
Vantage RM 7,240 1,840 930
Zaner Ag Hedge 7,511 1,817 937

DJ USDA Hogs and Pigs: U.S. Inventory, By Class, Weight-Mar 30
Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group,
and Quarter, United States, 2022-2023
=====================================================================
2023 as
Item 2022 2023 percent
of 2022
=====================================================================
==- 1,000 Head ==- percent
March 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 72,689 72,860 100
Kept for breeding 6,098 6,127 100
Market 66,591 66,734 100
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 20,105 20,059 100
50-119 pounds 19,030 18,975 100
120-179 pounds 14,988 14,973 100
180 pounds and over 12,468 12,727 102
June 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 72,314
Kept for breeding 6,168
Market 66,146
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 20,903
50-119 pounds 18,691
120-179 pounds 13,827
180 pounds and over 12,725
September 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 74,125
Kept for breeding 6,152
Market 67,973
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 21,893
50-119 pounds 19,677
120-179 pounds 14,013
180 pounds and over 12,390
December 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 74,399
Kept for breeding 6,144
Market 68,256
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 21,453
50-119 pounds 18,970
120-179 pounds 14,805
180 pounds and over 13,028
=====================================================================

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed yesterday, with SRW lower but HRW and Spring a little higher. In addition, Russia announced it is increasing taxes on exports of Wheat. Cargill and Viterra said that they will shut export programs in Russia and might be bowing to Russian pressure to do so as the country is moving to take more control of the export program. Trends are mostly up on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered snow showers in southern areas. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 675, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 712, 724, and 728 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 945 May. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 878, 896, and 898 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 860, 846, and 833 March, and resistance is at 892, 899, and 910 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower with most of the weakness in new crop months as the trade expects bigger planted area. Trends are mixed on the May charts. The weekly export sales report showed weaker demand. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1739, 1724, and 1712 May and resistance is at 1772, 1800, and 1820 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday as traders prepared for the USDA reports that will be released later today. The USDA export sales report came in at the low end of trade expectations. Oats were mixed and trends remain up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 663 and 681 May. Support is at 643, 638, and 628 May, and resistance is at 655, 660, and 668 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 400 May. Support is at 370, 367, and 362 May, and resistance is at 380, 386, and 388 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans the products were mixed yesterday, with Soybean Meal a little higher, Soybean Oil lower, and Soybeans mixed. Traders were getting ready for the release of the USDA reports later today. The trends are mixed in these markets. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Private analysts say the harvest there is now 70% complete. However, the basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1462, 1451 and 1445 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1532 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 447.00, 435.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 467.00, 475.00, and 485.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5130, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5600, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today along with the price action for Soybean Oil in Chicago There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has revoked some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry there. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia has had bad weather. Canola was lower on what appeared to be some long liquidation due to the release of the USDA reports later today and the weaker US Dollar yesterday. There are some ideas that Canola futures have fallen enough for now. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 745.00, 733.00, and 715.00 May, with resistance at 781.00, 790.00, and 803.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3970 June. Support is at 3720, 3680, and 3610 June, with resistance at 3830, 3900, and 4050 June.

DJ Malaysia March 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,402,142 Tons, Up 32%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the March 1-31 period are estimated up 32% on month at 1,402,142 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
March 1-31 February 1-28
RBD Palm Olein 422,069 287,500
RBD Palm Oil 78,375 122,490
RBD Palm Stearin 136,720 83,540
Crude Palm Oil 314,790 253,880
Total* 1,402,142 1,062,057
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

April
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

May
100 May
175 May 100 May
107 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 785.00 15.00 May 2023 up 7.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 794.60 30.00 May 2023 dn 5.40
Basis: Vancouver 829.60 65.00 May 2023 dn 5.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 990.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 955.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 915.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 877.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1000.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 965.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 925.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 887.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 925.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4200.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 239.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.41)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 127,947 lots, or 6.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,386 5,430 5,362 5,390 5,363 5,389 26 73,905 87,219
Jul-23 5,277 5,334 5,275 5,307 5,269 5,295 26 33,419 87,027
Sep-23 5,239 5,283 5,235 5,257 5,234 5,253 19 2,313 6,442
Nov-23 5,220 5,251 5,206 5,228 5,203 5,221 18 13,146 43,241
Jan-24 5,226 5,226 5,190 5,208 5,181 5,199 18 71 1,038
Mar-24 5,188 5,207 5,172 5,186 5,170 5,182 12 5,093 4,117
Corn
Turnover: 834,186 lots, or 22.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,760 2,766 2,739 2,746 2,757 2,747 -10 142,050 382,409
Jul-23 2,742 2,745 2,713 2,724 2,740 2,724 -16 546,429 777,927
Sep-23 2,719 2,719 2,698 2,708 2,716 2,705 -11 38,127 174,925
Nov-23 2,676 2,685 2,665 2,674 2,677 2,675 -2 104,050 241,104
Jan-24 2,684 2,691 2,677 2,684 2,686 2,683 -3 3,469 20,231
Mar-24 2,679 2,684 2,672 2,674 2,681 2,677 -4 61 761
Soymeal
Turnover: 888,154 lots, or 31.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,542 3,553 3,502 3,511 3,543 3,526 -17 507,762 843,355
Jul-23 3,538 3,549 3,503 3,505 3,541 3,524 -17 38,268 215,379
Aug-23 3,611 3,622 3,577 3,583 3,616 3,601 -15 32,347 146,852
Sep-23 3,602 3,609 3,566 3,569 3,606 3,585 -21 235,017 721,844
Nov-23 3,595 3,602 3,563 3,565 3,602 3,582 -20 25,110 79,451
Dec-23 3,571 3,584 3,552 3,555 3,585 3,568 -17 15,917 32,938
Jan-24 3,524 3,532 3,502 3,509 3,530 3,517 -13 30,275 108,614
Mar-24 3,496 3,499 3,468 3,477 3,494 3,484 -10 3,458 13,054
Palm Oil
Turnover: 917,333 lots, or 69.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,686 7,720 7,598 7,622 7,604 7,682 78 591 4,307
May-23 7,676 7,694 7,544 7,594 7,540 7,618 78 699,439 340,302
Jun-23 7,492 7,540 7,406 7,452 7,414 7,474 60 18,152 98,119
Jul-23 7,424 7,474 7,348 7,382 7,360 7,414 54 20,592 80,618
Aug-23 7,352 7,422 7,294 7,324 7,286 7,356 70 14,735 51,610
Sep-23 7,306 7,346 7,226 7,258 7,228 7,286 58 144,181 174,117
Oct-23 7,300 7,310 7,202 7,228 7,198 7,262 64 11,724 32,425
Nov-23 7,320 7,320 7,186 7,210 7,184 7,234 50 7,072 15,456
Dec-23 7,276 7,280 7,196 7,230 7,188 7,228 40 40 171
Jan-24 7,196 7,272 7,172 7,200 7,186 7,224 38 766 2,077
Feb-24 7,234 7,234 7,174 7,200 7,202 7,194 -8 21 96
Mar-24 7,260 7,270 7,190 7,208 7,198 7,226 28 20 141
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 833,397 lots, or 6.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,192 8,230 8,122 8,138 8,064 8,174 110 581,994 320,069
Jul-23 8,068 8,122 8,024 8,050 7,982 8,068 86 27,304 104,489
Aug-23 8,032 8,098 7,998 8,022 7,968 8,040 72 12,451 76,153
Sep-23 8,024 8,080 7,972 7,998 7,940 8,020 80 182,448 243,584
Nov-23 7,972 8,042 7,944 7,970 7,922 7,990 68 11,065 43,013
Dec-23 8,068 8,092 8,004 8,024 7,976 8,048 72 11,009 30,060
Jan-24 8,038 8,078 7,988 8,004 7,968 8,034 66 3,891 14,572
Mar-24 8,010 8,044 7,960 7,970 7,956 7,974 18 3,235 4,174
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322