Grain Reports To Set The Tone. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/31/2023

We kickoff the day with Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, PCE Price Index YoY, and Core PCE Prices MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Rate Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks at 11:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count 12:00 P.M., fed Williams Speech at 2:05 P.M., and Fed Cook Speech at 4:45 P.M.

On the Corn Front Export Sales were at the low end of expectations at 41 million bushels. Besides China’s buying spree there was very little business from our usual buyers. We still believe the crop will have shortages, but if you speak to a veteran grain trader he would say come harvest we will have corn coming out of our ears. This year I beg to differ with Argentina and Ukraine participation in the export market will be minimal.  That is why I believe this will put a bullseye on Quarterly Grain Stocks and if your late to the dance it will cost desperate importers dearly, if my pontification comes true. That should be the main focus. Also, with Prospective Plantings will begin the planting season’s gauge of expected acreage. Traders will be holding their breath as we approach the 11:00 A.M., grain reports that will shake & bake the grain complex one way or another. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 651 which is 1 and ½ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 651 ½ to 647 ¼.

On the Ethanol Front the main headline we are now focused on is the Minnesota BNSF train derailment. Raymond, Minnesota, assistant fire chief said crews are now letting the ethanol burn out after spraying thousands of gallons of water to contain the blaze on the train cars that caught fire. Common sense tells me we should invest in pipelines to move these volatile commodities, especially in neighborhoods of high concentrated risk of a derailment developing into a bigger disaster. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

Have An Excellent Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374