About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: 2023 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2022
Corn 90.849 87.7-92.1 88.579
Soybeans 88.235 87.4-89.6 87.450
All Wheat 48.689 45.7-50.0 45.738
Winter Wheat 36.324 34.3-37.0 33.271
Spring Wheat 10.896 9.8-11.6 10.835
Durum Wheat 1.619 1.2-1.8 1.632
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
Allendale 90.4 87.8 48.7 36.5 10.6 1.6
Doane 92.1 87.4 49.6 37.0 11.0 1.7
Farm Futures 87.7 89.6 45.7 34.4 10.2 1.2
Futures Intl 91.0 89.0 37.0 11.2 1.7
Grain Cycles 90.3 88.6 49.0 36.8 10.5 1.7
Linn Group 91.2 88.8 50.0 36.8 11.6 1.6
Sid Love Consulting 90.0 88.5 49.5 37.0 10.8 1.8
Marex 91.0 88.0 49.6 37.0 11.0 1.6
Midland Research 90.7 88.2 49.3 36.5 11.1 1.7
Midwest Market Solutions 91.1 88.1 48.9 36.8 10.5 1.6
Northstar 91.3 88.2 49.0 36.4 11.2 1.6
Ocean State Research 91.5 88.5 49.5 37.0 11.0 1.5
Prime Ag 91.5 87.5 47.5
Risk Mgmt Commodities 90.5 88.0 47.5 34.3 11.6 1.6
RJ O’Brien 90.5 88.0 48.6 36.5 10.5 1.6
StoneX 92.0 88.5 48.2 36.7 9.8 1.7
Vantage RM 91.2 87.5 49.1 35.8 11.5 1.8
Zaner Ag Hedge 91.4 88.1 48.1 35.1 11.3 1.7

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2023 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 2022 Dec. 2022
Corn 7,480 7,240-7,830 7,758 10,809
Soybeans 1,753 1,660-1,910 1,932 3,022
Wheat 928 875-965 1,029 1,280
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 7,558 1,737 917
Doane 7,414 1,677 923
Futures Intl 7,481 1,770 928
Grain Cycles 7,325 1,730 945
Linn Group 7,328 1,660 891
Sid Love Consulting 7,385 1,717 952
Marex 7,725 1,910 965
Midland Research 7,369 1,735 929
Northstar 7,830 1,725 925
Ocean State Research 7,532 1,717 920
Prime Ag 7,550 1,700 875
Risk Mgmt Commodities 7,650 1,895 960
RJ O’Brien 7,378 1,707 921
StoneX 7,410 1,716 932
Vantage RM 7,240 1,840 930
Zaner Ag Hedge 7,511 1,817 937

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 30
For the week ended Mar 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 151.7 37.4 18015.4 18985.8 2737.2 706.6
hrw 39.5 27.2 4898.1 7474.8 619.3 139.6
srw 53.8 10.2 2789.4 2758.6 485.5 392.0
hrs 19.5 0.0 5431.1 5234.6 865.7 94.9
white 38.8 0.0 4528.7 3328.9 689.6 43.2
durum 0.0 0.0 368.3 189.0 77.2 36.9
corn 1036.4 21.8 35966.1 53654.1 16722.3 1974.2
soybeans 348.2 3.9 49760.9 55286.0 5253.3 1749.1
soymeal 377.9 10.0 8764.5 9155.5 2803.6 274.0
soyoil 2.0 0.0 76.0 633.3 42.9 0.6
upland cotton 281.3 12.3 11460.4 14197.3 4898.6 1372.3
pima cotton 10.1 0.0 174.6 438.7 58.8 3.9
sorghum 1.9 0.0 1499.6 6760.1 680.8 63.0
barley -0.4 0.0 11.5 20.4 3.3 6.0
rice 16.4 0.0 1584.8 2465.4 449.8 18.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on short covering tied to ideas that the world economy has passed its worst test with the banking problems. In addition, Russia announced it is increasing taxes on exports of Wheat. Cargill and Viterra said that they will shut export programs in Russia and might be bowing to Russian pressure to do so as the country is moving to take more control of the export program. Trends are mostly up on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 794 May. Support is at 705, 692, and 675 May, with resistance at 728, 738, and 743 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 945 May. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 878, 896, and 898 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 860, 846, and 833 March, and resistance is at 892, 899, and 910 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher with only the nearby May contact lower. Trends are now mixed on the May charts. It looks like some speculators are leaving the market or bear spreading in case of a bullish surprise on the reports coming on Friday. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near o below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1749, and 1724 May and resistance is at 1800, 1820, and 1831 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed to a little higher yesterday as much improved export demand continued. The front months closed higher. Demand from China and unknown destinations has greatly increased in the last two weeks. The USDA export sales report was a marketing year high and the third highest sales amount in the last 20 years. Oats were higher and trends remain up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News: Chiuna bought 178,000 tons of US Corn

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 663 and 681 May. Support is at 643, 638, and 628 May, and resistance is at 660, 668, and 672 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 400 May. Support is at 370, 367, and 362 May, and resistance is at 386, 388, and 394 May.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Stocks Sink More Than Expected
By Kirk Maltais
Inventories of ethanol in the U.S. pulled back for the past week by a greater amount than expected, according to a government report.
In its latest weekly report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said its inventories are at 25.53 million barrels for the week ended March 24. That’s down from inventories of over 26 million barrels recorded last week by the EIA. Meanwhile, estimates for U.S. daily ethanol production were met this week, with production seen at 1.003 million barrels a day,
For inventories, traders had expected them to land anywhere from 25.99 million barrels to 26.21 million barrels, while production was forecast between 987,000 barrels and 1.011 million barrels.
Following the report’s release, most-active corn futures on the CBOT are up 0.1%, while soybeans are up 0.2% and wheat is up 1.3%.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans the products were mixed to higher yesterday. The trends are mixed in these markets. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Private analysts say the harvest there is now 70% complete. However, the basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1462, 1451 and 1445 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1532 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 447.00, 435.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 462.00, 467.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5130, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5600, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on what was reported to be speculative buying tied to the price action for Soybran Oil in Chicago There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has revoked some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry there. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia has had bad weather. Canola was higher again yesterday. There are some ideas that Canola futures have fallen enough for now. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 745.00, 733.00, and 715.00 May, with resistance at 772.00, 790.00, and 803.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3790 and 3970 June. Support is at 3680, 3610, and 3500 June, with resistance at 3720, 3750, and 3830 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

April
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

May
100 May
175 May 100 May
107 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 29
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 777.40 15.00 May 2023 up 9.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 800.00 30.00 May 2023 up 7.60
Basis: Vancouver 835.00 65.00 May 2023 up 4.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 995.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
May 970.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 930.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 885.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1005.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
May 980.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 940.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 895.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 935.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 760.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4250.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 243.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.418)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 134,606 lots, or 7.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,371 5,386 5,341 5,369 5,385 5,363 -22 84,572 89,487
Jul-23 5,286 5,293 5,247 5,284 5,285 5,269 -16 29,329 86,204
Sep-23 5,248 5,262 5,215 5,239 5,245 5,234 -11 2,770 6,454
Nov-23 5,220 5,225 5,188 5,211 5,219 5,203 -16 12,312 42,522
Jan-24 5,205 5,205 5,169 5,180 5,194 5,181 -13 339 1,054
Mar-24 5,179 5,183 5,161 5,177 5,178 5,170 -8 5,284 4,632
Corn
Turnover: 693,655 lots, or 18.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,757 2,764 2,748 2,761 2,758 2,757 -1 126,994 398,475
Jul-23 2,745 2,749 2,731 2,742 2,742 2,740 -2 443,112 758,830
Sep-23 2,725 2,725 2,710 2,716 2,729 2,716 -13 33,791 168,548
Nov-23 2,682 2,687 2,672 2,674 2,689 2,677 -12 86,875 249,362
Jan-24 2,690 2,694 2,682 2,683 2,692 2,686 -6 2,718 19,575
Mar-24 2,681 2,688 2,675 2,679 2,685 2,681 -4 165 744
Soymeal
Turnover: 786,173 lots, or 28.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,549 3,555 3,527 3,532 3,547 3,543 -4 433,726 845,982
Jul-23 3,545 3,551 3,528 3,532 3,547 3,541 -6 28,547 215,256
Aug-23 3,625 3,626 3,602 3,606 3,626 3,616 -10 27,311 149,213
Sep-23 3,612 3,619 3,591 3,594 3,614 3,606 -8 220,156 702,956
Nov-23 3,603 3,612 3,583 3,586 3,607 3,602 -5 24,530 79,755
Dec-23 3,592 3,599 3,566 3,571 3,591 3,585 -6 18,291 32,463
Jan-24 3,536 3,543 3,513 3,515 3,534 3,530 -4 30,359 103,340
Mar-24 3,497 3,507 3,480 3,483 3,501 3,494 -7 3,253 12,406
Palm Oil
Turnover: 788,907 lots, or 59.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,578 7,700 7,546 7,700 7,578 7,604 26 389 4,518
May-23 7,534 7,646 7,472 7,624 7,524 7,540 16 610,722 359,120
Jun-23 7,424 7,498 7,354 7,482 7,418 7,414 -4 18,801 98,821
Jul-23 7,370 7,436 7,302 7,414 7,352 7,360 8 18,991 81,803
Aug-23 7,320 7,370 7,238 7,358 7,290 7,286 -4 14,813 51,560
Sep-23 7,226 7,300 7,162 7,294 7,212 7,228 16 110,502 168,204
Oct-23 7,196 7,270 7,142 7,266 7,192 7,198 6 10,658 32,032
Nov-23 7,210 7,252 7,126 7,246 7,182 7,184 2 3,201 13,715
Dec-23 7,182 7,192 7,182 7,192 7,196 7,188 -8 3 181
Jan-24 7,194 7,232 7,112 7,228 7,178 7,186 8 810 2,020
Feb-24 7,156 7,218 7,156 7,218 7,184 7,202 18 9 95
Mar-24 7,182 7,244 7,132 7,232 7,170 7,198 28 8 142
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 657,613 lots, or 52.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,054 8,154 7,996 8,144 8,036 8,064 28 469,682 326,109
Jul-23 7,980 8,062 7,924 8,048 7,952 7,982 30 17,228 104,640
Aug-23 7,948 8,040 7,902 8,022 7,932 7,968 36 7,361 75,887
Sep-23 7,912 8,020 7,882 8,010 7,910 7,940 30 138,586 243,194
Nov-23 7,890 7,986 7,860 7,976 7,886 7,922 36 8,877 43,435
Dec-23 7,954 8,040 7,928 8,034 7,948 7,976 28 10,639 30,601
Jan-24 7,956 8,020 7,918 8,012 7,934 7,968 34 4,890 14,471
Mar-24 7,924 7,996 7,902 7,984 7,910 7,956 46 350 3,030
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322