Another Train Derailment As We Gear Up For Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/30/2023

We kickoff the day with Export Dales, Corporate Profits QoQ, GDP Price Index QoQ Final, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ Final, Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final, GDP Sales QoQ Final, Real Consumer Spending QoQ final, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Core PCE Prices QoQ Final at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech & Fed Waller Speech at 11:45 A.M., and Hogs & Pigs at 2:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front the USDA announced another flash sale of 204k tons (8 million bushels0 of old crop corn to China. Announced sales to China/unknown this week have now reached 453 tons or 8 million bushels126 million bushels. Cumulative  sales the past 3 weeks reached 126 million bushels. This is what traders expected seeing exports rebound with the competition supplies are low and the US corn price is the cheapest in the world. This morning’s Export Sales will be interesting. National average corn basis has firmed roughly 6 cents per bushel since March 1^st as buyers start to round up the cash corn to meet 110 million bushels of known old crop export business is announced under the daily system since the China buying spree began. While 25% of the state is reporting surplus moisture, NASS reported that 7% of the Mississippi corn crop was planted as of March 26^th, slightly ahead of the 5% average pace for that date. Brazilian winter corn crop planting is estimated at 96-97% completed. Remaining plantings will be outside the ideal growing season window and rely on scarce dry season rains to reach full yield potential. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 654 which is 3 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 654 ¾ to 648 ¾.

On the Ethanol Front production improved to 1,001 tbd last week , up from 997 tbd the previous week. Corn usage at 101 million bushels was just below the weekly pace needed to reach the current USDA forecast of 5.250 million bushels. Do not expect the USDA to lower their corn for ethanol usage in the next WASDE report April 11^th as the summer driving season kicking in. A train derailment carrying ethanol and corn syrup derailed and several cars erupted in flames, early this morning, sparking an evacuation for residents living near the crash site in Raymond, Minnesota, officials said. The Kandiyohi County sheriff’s office was notified about the train derailment about 1:00 A.M. local time. Around 22 rail cars “carrying mixed freight including ethanol and corn syrup” were reported to have derailed, BNSF Railway said in a statement. Several of the derailed tanks caught fire, the sheriff’s office said. There were no injuries or fatalities reported. We will keep you posted as the investigation evolves. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

Have An Excellent Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

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