Grains Report 03/29/2023

DJ Survey: 2023 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2022
Corn 90.849 87.7-92.1 88.579
Soybeans 88.235 87.4-89.6 87.450
All Wheat 48.689 45.7-50.0 45.738
Winter Wheat 36.324 34.3-37.0 33.271
Spring Wheat 10.896 9.8-11.6 10.835
Durum Wheat 1.619 1.2-1.8 1.632
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
Allendale 90.4 87.8 48.7 36.5 10.6 1.6
Doane 92.1 87.4 49.6 37.0 11.0 1.7
Farm Futures 87.7 89.6 45.7 34.4 10.2 1.2
Futures Intl 91.0 89.0 37.0 11.2 1.7
Grain Cycles 90.3 88.6 49.0 36.8 10.5 1.7
Linn Group 91.2 88.8 50.0 36.8 11.6 1.6
Sid Love Consulting 90.0 88.5 49.5 37.0 10.8 1.8
Marex 91.0 88.0 49.6 37.0 11.0 1.6
Midland Research 90.7 88.2 49.3 36.5 11.1 1.7
Midwest Market Solutions 91.1 88.1 48.9 36.8 10.5 1.6
Northstar 91.3 88.2 49.0 36.4 11.2 1.6
Ocean State Research 91.5 88.5 49.5 37.0 11.0 1.5
Prime Ag 91.5 87.5 47.5
Risk Mgmt Commodities 90.5 88.0 47.5 34.3 11.6 1.6
RJ O’Brien 90.5 88.0 48.6 36.5 10.5 1.6
StoneX 92.0 88.5 48.2 36.7 9.8 1.7
Vantage RM 91.2 87.5 49.1 35.8 11.5 1.8
Zaner Ag Hedge 91.4 88.1 48.1 35.1 11.3 1.7

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2023 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 2022 Dec. 2022
Corn 7,480 7,240-7,830 7,758 10,809
Soybeans 1,753 1,660-1,910 1,932 3,022
Wheat 928 875-965 1,029 1,280
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 7,558 1,737 917
Doane 7,414 1,677 923
Futures Intl 7,481 1,770 928
Grain Cycles 7,325 1,730 945
Linn Group 7,328 1,660 891
Sid Love Consulting 7,385 1,717 952
Marex 7,725 1,910 965
Midland Research 7,369 1,735 929
Northstar 7,830 1,725 925
Ocean State Research 7,532 1,717 920
Prime Ag 7,550 1,700 875
Risk Mgmt Commodities 7,650 1,895 960
RJ O’Brien 7,378 1,707 921
StoneX 7,410 1,716 932
Vantage RM 7,240 1,840 930
Zaner Ag Hedge 7,511 1,817 937

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on short covering tied to ideas that the world economy has passed its worst test with the banking problems. Kansas City and Minneapolis were strong, but Chicago rallied late in the day to close with much more modest gains. Prices are still so cheap that Russia is reportedly thinking about increasing export tariffs or halting exports for a time to rally prices. The rally might be curing those ideas but the world price is still cheap when compared to US futures prices. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices are still weaker. Trends turned sideways to up on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 675, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 712, 720, and 738 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 883 and 945 May. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 878, 898, and 904 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 882 and 888 May. Support is at 860, 846, and 833 March, and resistance is at 892, 8910, and 928 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed, with nearby months lower and deferred months higher. Trends are still up on the charts. It looks like some speculators are leaving the market or bear spreading in case of a bullish surprise on the reports coming on Friday. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near o below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1832 May. Support is at 1760, 1749, and 1724 May and resistance is at 1800, 1820, and 1831 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 29
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.45 11.30 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.22 11.99 0.00
Brokens 10.73 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:

U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 6.81
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 6.93

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday as much improved export demand continued. Demand from China and unknown destinations has greatly increased in the last two weeks. The USDA export sales report was a marketing year high and the third highest sales amount in the last 20 years. Oats were higher and trends remain up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News: China bought 204,000 tons of US Corn

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 651, 663, and 681 May. Support is at 638, 628, and 625 May, and resistance is at 652, 660, and 668 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 383 and 400 May. Support is at 367, 362, and 356 May, and resistance is at 382, 388, and 394 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans the products were higher yesterday on follow through speculative short covering tied to oversold conditions. The trends are mixed in these markets. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Private analysts say the harvest there is now 70% complete. However, the basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1445, 1432 and 1415 May, and resistance is at 1478, 1500, and 1516 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 447.00, 435.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 461.00, 467.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5130, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5600, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on what was reported to be speculative buying There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has revoked some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry there. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia has had bad weather. Canola was higher again yesterday along with the rally in Soybeans. There are some ideas that Canola futures have fallen enough for now. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixes. Support is at 745.00, 733.00, and 715.00 May, with resistance at 767.00, 772.00, and 790.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3790 and 3970 June. Support is at 3680, 3610, and 3500 June, with resistance at 3720, 3750, and 3830 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry or isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

April
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

May
100 May
175 May 100 May
107 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 768.20 15.00 May 2023 up 9.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 792.40 30.00 May 2023 up 9.20
Basis: Vancouver 830.40 68.00 May 2023 up 9.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 970.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
May 940.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 910.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 865.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 980.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
May 950.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 920.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 875.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 925.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 750.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4150.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 243.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.416)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 104,849 lots, or 5.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,386 5,407 5,370 5,371 5,413 5,385 -28 66,434 87,050
Jul-23 5,280 5,300 5,273 5,282 5,301 5,285 -16 22,805 83,596
Sep-23 5,265 5,265 5,233 5,240 5,261 5,245 -16 2,150 6,105
Nov-23 5,230 5,233 5,204 5,214 5,230 5,219 -11 9,439 42,169
Jan-24 5,192 5,210 5,187 5,190 5,205 5,194 -11 34 837
Mar-24 5,177 5,186 5,170 5,170 5,187 5,178 -9 3,987 4,892
Corn
Turnover: 597,240 lots, or 1.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,752 2,766 2,750 2,755 2,743 2,758 15 107,643 413,813
Jul-23 2,741 2,750 2,733 2,739 2,721 2,742 21 372,898 775,645
Sep-23 2,726 2,740 2,717 2,719 2,714 2,729 15 39,179 162,064
Nov-23 2,691 2,701 2,679 2,680 2,677 2,689 12 73,466 251,112
Jan-24 2,686 2,703 2,686 2,686 2,678 2,692 14 3,912 18,878
Mar-24 2,685 2,691 2,683 2,684 2,671 2,685 14 142 709
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,139,107 lots, or 40.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,536 3,571 3,528 3,535 3,505 3,547 42 621,293 851,626
Jul-23 3,538 3,572 3,520 3,533 3,512 3,547 35 51,933 211,228
Aug-23 3,618 3,650 3,598 3,611 3,583 3,626 43 42,915 150,518
Sep-23 3,615 3,640 3,592 3,600 3,578 3,614 36 323,381 680,897
Nov-23 3,599 3,629 3,587 3,595 3,567 3,607 40 36,319 79,397
Dec-23 3,585 3,617 3,575 3,581 3,559 3,591 32 19,983 31,765
Jan-24 3,536 3,569 3,518 3,525 3,515 3,534 19 39,290 103,904
Mar-24 3,501 3,522 3,484 3,490 3,480 3,501 21 3,993 12,070
Palm Oil
Turnover: 740,017 lots, or 55.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,532 7,676 7,532 7,598 7,500 7,578 78 243 4,603
May-23 7,500 7,586 7,452 7,516 7,424 7,524 100 570,372 383,045
Jun-23 7,418 7,474 7,344 7,392 7,360 7,418 58 16,008 100,567
Jul-23 7,348 7,404 7,294 7,334 7,286 7,352 66 15,803 81,951
Aug-23 7,260 7,334 7,226 7,274 7,214 7,290 76 11,992 53,053
Sep-23 7,188 7,266 7,156 7,206 7,136 7,212 76 107,713 166,282
Oct-23 7,174 7,236 7,138 7,182 7,128 7,192 64 13,187 31,962
Nov-23 7,198 7,228 7,132 7,162 7,120 7,182 62 4,044 13,797
Dec-23 7,200 7,210 7,174 7,174 7,150 7,196 46 7 182
Jan-24 7,162 7,228 7,136 7,158 7,132 7,178 46 638 1,961
Feb-24 7,190 7,200 7,164 7,164 7,120 7,184 64 5 94
Mar-24 7,206 7,206 7,150 7,156 7,164 7,170 6 5 140
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 644,256 lots, or 51.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,006 8,090 7,988 8,026 7,942 8,036 94 458,521 338,590
Jul-23 7,880 8,004 7,880 7,944 7,868 7,952 84 16,004 105,268
Aug-23 7,914 7,980 7,892 7,920 7,850 7,932 82 10,115 75,900
Sep-23 7,898 7,960 7,866 7,898 7,834 7,910 76 132,382 237,216
Nov-23 7,880 7,934 7,842 7,880 7,824 7,886 62 8,024 43,369
Dec-23 7,962 8,070 7,912 7,956 7,918 7,948 30 13,587 29,990
Jan-24 7,940 7,976 7,900 7,938 7,898 7,934 36 5,058 14,494
Mar-24 7,924 7,952 7,872 7,908 7,882 7,910 28 565 2,961
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322