Grains Report 3/28/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 27
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Mar 27, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 23, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/23/2023 03/16/2023 03/24/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,010
CORN 666,325 1,192,093 1,614,664 18,193,644 29,045,431
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 176,695 94,495 343,476 1,091,357 4,167,293
SOYBEANS 888,707 719,532 631,604 44,953,271 43,467,619
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,408 532
WHEAT 392,484 375,271 343,773 16,679,539 16,899,828
Total 2,124,211 2,381,391 2,933,517 80,929,059 93,591,437
———————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on short covering tied to ideas that the world economy has passed its worst test with the banking problems. Prices are now so cheap that Russia is reportedly thinking about increasing export tariffs or halting exports for a time to rally prices. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices are still weaker. Trends turned sideways to up on the daily charts. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Prices are now so cheap that Russia is reportedly thinking about increasing export tariffs or halting exports for a time to rally prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 675, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 712, 720, and 738 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 883 and 945 May. Support is at 843, 823, and 810 May, with resistance at 878, 898, and 904 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 882 and 888 May. Support is at 860, 846, and 833 March, and resistance is at 882, 892, and 910 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. Trends are still up on the charts. Ideas are that some selling from producers was seen on the rally early in the session and over the weekend as well. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1832 May. Support is at 1760, 1749, and 1724 May and resistance is at 1800, 1820, and 1831 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as much improved export demand continued. Demand from China and unknown destinations has greatly increased in the last two weeks. The USDA export sales report was a marketing year high and the third highest sales amount in the last 20 years. Oats were higher and trends remain up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News: China bought 136,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 651, 663, and 681 May. Support is at 638, 628, and 625 May, and resistance is at 649, 652, and 660 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 383 and 400 May. Support is at 367, 362, and 356 May, and resistance is at 382, 388, and 394 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans the products were higher yesterday on speculative short covering tied to oversold conditions. The trends are still mostly down in this market. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. However, the basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1404 May. Support is at 1422, 1415 and 1405 May, and resistance is at 1455, 1478, and 1480 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 435.00, 422.00, and 405.00 May, and resistance is at 462.00, 454.00, and 461.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5050 May. Support is at 5150, 5000, and 4880 May, with resistance at 5500, 5600, and 5850 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher yesterday on what was reported to be speculative buying There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has revoked some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry there. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia has had bad weather. Canola was higher last week along with the rally in Soybeans. There are some ideas that Canola futures have fallen enough for now. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixes. Support is at 733.00, 8715.00, and 700.00 May, with resistance at 761.00, 767.00, and 772.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3500, 3410, and 3320 June, with resistance at 3720, 3750, and 3850 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry or isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

April
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

May
100 May
175 May 100 May
107 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 27
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 758.40 15.00 May 2023 up 8.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 783.20 30.00 May 2023 up 9.80
Basis: Vancouver 821.20 68.00 May 2023 up 9.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-0984)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 965.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
May 940.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 910.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 865.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 975.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
May 950.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 920.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 875.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 915.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 730.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4180.00 +130.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 244.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.398)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 118,764 lots, or 6.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,416 5,456 5,393 5,399 5,406 5,413 7 68,061 88,870
Jul-23 5,301 5,350 5,279 5,292 5,287 5,301 14 30,397 81,874
Sep-23 5,253 5,304 5,239 5,265 5,252 5,261 9 1,804 5,716
Nov-23 5,246 5,260 5,210 5,227 5,229 5,230 1 11,404 42,168
Jan-24 5,200 5,212 5,200 5,209 5,203 5,205 2 24 818
Mar-24 5,195 5,204 5,174 5,181 5,189 5,187 -2 7,074 5,166
Corn
Turnover: 823,160 lots, or 22.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,734 2,758 2,727 2,756 2,741 2,743 2 168,810 419,979
Jul-23 2,704 2,739 2,698 2,738 2,722 2,721 -1 497,339 796,380
Sep-23 2,696 2,729 2,694 2,726 2,712 2,714 2 47,952 158,661
Nov-23 2,655 2,688 2,655 2,686 2,670 2,677 7 104,769 256,000
Jan-24 2,663 2,689 2,663 2,689 2,670 2,678 8 4,120 18,063
Mar-24 2,666 2,682 2,660 2,682 2,670 2,671 1 170 717
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,120,253 lots, or 39.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,502 3,526 3,481 3,523 3,499 3,505 6 618,806 879,362
Jul-23 3,525 3,533 3,492 3,531 3,511 3,512 1 53,761 210,205
Aug-23 3,583 3,608 3,559 3,605 3,575 3,583 8 46,165 150,451
Sep-23 3,566 3,600 3,548 3,597 3,562 3,578 16 275,293 654,033
Nov-23 3,555 3,591 3,544 3,589 3,555 3,567 12 41,546 78,874
Dec-23 3,557 3,577 3,535 3,576 3,533 3,559 26 31,786 31,154
Jan-24 3,491 3,532 3,487 3,526 3,475 3,515 40 48,346 100,314
Mar-24 3,469 3,494 3,460 3,490 3,451 3,480 29 4,550 11,537
Palm Oil
Turnover: 816,444 lots, or 60.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,404 7,582 7,404 7,582 7,388 7,500 112 1,354 4,742
May-23 7,368 7,500 7,338 7,488 7,288 7,424 136 625,194 416,536
Jun-23 7,282 7,420 7,276 7,402 7,236 7,360 124 20,368 100,385
Jul-23 7,232 7,348 7,214 7,332 7,168 7,286 118 16,245 81,723
Aug-23 7,158 7,278 7,150 7,262 7,110 7,214 104 13,877 52,550
Sep-23 7,074 7,194 7,062 7,182 7,050 7,136 86 122,082 166,652
Oct-23 7,090 7,184 7,058 7,174 7,046 7,128 82 11,817 31,935
Nov-23 7,108 7,176 7,054 7,170 7,044 7,120 76 4,681 13,777
Dec-23 7,102 7,174 7,088 7,168 7,072 7,150 78 20 187
Jan-24 7,068 7,174 7,050 7,152 7,036 7,132 96 802 1,897
Feb-24 7,102 7,140 7,102 7,140 7,084 7,120 36 2 96
Mar-24 7,162 7,166 7,162 7,166 7,066 7,164 98 2 137
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 798,679 lots, or 63.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,872 8,018 7,846 8,000 7,830 7,942 112 581,688 353,367
Jul-23 7,802 7,940 7,794 7,924 7,786 7,868 82 19,206 105,416
Aug-23 7,798 7,920 7,774 7,904 7,776 7,850 74 9,796 74,332
Sep-23 7,786 7,908 7,754 7,884 7,764 7,834 70 154,233 225,643
Nov-23 7,740 7,890 7,736 7,872 7,746 7,824 78 9,522 44,192
Dec-23 7,872 7,966 7,832 7,960 7,840 7,918 78 17,231 32,121
Jan-24 7,850 7,952 7,816 7,932 7,822 7,898 76 6,321 14,309
Mar-24 7,820 7,930 7,802 7,912 7,814 7,882 68 682 2,891
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322