Softs Report 03/27/2023

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Mar 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 70.955 million pounds, in February, 1.4% above the previous
month, and 41.6% above February 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Thursday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Feb 28 Jan 31 Feb 28 Jan 31 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Feb
pork bellies 70,955 69,991 50,115 44,707
orange juice 272,603 288,548 457,698 446,971
french fries 1,035,971 1,025,145 992,338 939,539
other potatoes 239,871 229,665 219,607 210,574
chicken rstr (whole) 13,075 13,552 11,931 13,509
ham 85,069 78,585 84,212 74,775
total pork 521,188 518,934 478,315 434,415 455,831
total beef 500,206 534,028 531,568 525,724 490,439
total red meat 1,051,619 1,080,107 1,035,117 986,396 975,120
total chicken 863,337 867,153 785,657 771,304
total turkey 322,297 289,356 292,897 243,749
total poultry 1,188,145 1,158,853 1,080,604 1,017,173 1,075,818
===============================================================================

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower and closed at new lows for the move. Chart trends turned down again with the price action on Friday. Selling was caused in large part to the continuing banking criss in the world as Duetche Bank was reported to have financial problems on Friday. The move came despite a strong weekly export sales report and amid continued economic uncertainty. The weekly export sales report showed good demand, and demand ideas are improving. Demand has been ramping up for the last couple of months but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 74.22 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 71.70 May. Support is at 75.40, 74.00, and 72.80 May, with resistance of 77.80, 79.90 and 80.50 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 245,455
: Positions :
: 27,750 58,647 63,147 70,361 93,621 71,350 15,270 232,609 230,685: 12,846 14,770
: Changes from: March 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: 10,081) :
: -40 8,693 5,112 1,769 -8,926 3,129 4,014 9,970 8,893: 111 1,188
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 23.9 25.7 28.7 38.1 29.1 6.2 94.8 94.0: 5.2 6.0
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 89 89 56 56 46 22 217 220:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday and trends turned up in the market again. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 416 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 416 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 254.00 and 264.00 May. Support is at 245.00, 240.00, and 234.00 May, with resistance at 263.00, 269.00, and 275.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,752 :
: Positions :
: 1,484 7,453 1,422 68 37 4,369 308 106 763 599 1,422 :
: Changes from: March 14, 2023 :
: -190 -606 52 68 37 -314 0 -1 58 178 -84 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 63.4 12.1 0.6 0.3 37.2 2.6 0.9 6.5 5.1 12.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 8 11 5 . . 22 . . 9 10 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher Friday and at the top end of the recent trading range and London closed much higher as trends turned up on the daily charts. Futures were a little lower for the week in New York, but higher in London. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still affecting prices. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the recent rally has increased offers, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again after futures prices sold off. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.747 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 169.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 174.00, 171.00, and 170.00 May, and resistance is at 181.00, 183.00 and 185.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2200, 2210, and 2270 May. Support is at 2140, 2090, and 2070 May, and resistance is at 2210, 2240, and 2270 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 237,578
: Positions :
: 25,302 21,279 69,658 68,743 125,520 65,990 12,222 229,692 228,679: 7,886 8,899
: Changes from: March 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,633) :
: 3,152 -3,398 2,617 -746 3,159 252 1,166 5,275 3,544: -1,642 90
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 9.0 29.3 28.9 52.8 27.8 5.1 96.7 96.3: 3.3 3.7
: Total Traders: 359 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 82 119 107 113 44 23 305 287:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/21/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
123,135 57,960 79,035 1,634 5,761 2,312
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 47.1% 64.2% 1.3% 4.7% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
140 41 38 7 9 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,445 6,353 7,765 6,338 2,681 15,358
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.9% 5.2% 6.3% 5.1% 2.2% 12.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 12 12 12 11 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,323 3,870
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.9% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week, and the trends are still trying to turn up in both markets on the daily charts. Supplies are getting tighter to support prices. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Brazil production is solid this year. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Unica said that Brazil mills crushed 608,290 tons of Sugarcane in the first half of March and produced 15,570 tons of Sugar and 264.6 million liters of Ethanol. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at0, 2040, and 3010 May and resistance is at 2140, 2140, and 2160 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 609.00 and 627.00 May. Support is at 591.00, 585.00, and 580.00 May and resistance is at 609.00, 612.00, and 615.00 May.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Rose in 1H March
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the first half of March compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 608,290 metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 327% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Friday. They produced 15,570 tons of sugar, compared with no sugar produced in the same period last year, and made 264.6 million liters of ethanol, an increase of 57%.
The center south accounts for about 90% of Brazil’s sugarcane production. Bad weather limited the amount of cane available for processing in 2021 and early 2022, so mills in the center-south closed earlier than normal a year ago, explaining the big jumps in this year’s figures.
In the period from April 1 through March 15, mills in the region crushed 543.9 million tons of cane, up 4% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 4.7%, to 33.6 million tons, and ethanol output climbed 4.1%, to 28.5 billion liters.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,107,831
: Positions :
: 201,501 74,528 253,178 284,394 643,891 264,744 79,656 1,003,817 1,051,253: 104,013 56,577
: Changes from: March 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: -20,722) :
: -10,860 -3,789 -9,347 849 -12,455 -3,843 2,167 -23,202 -23,424: 2,479 2,702
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.2 6.7 22.9 25.7 58.1 23.9 7.2 90.6 94.9: 9.4 5.1
: Total Traders: 253 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 35 79 61 78 44 25 220 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/21/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
91,160 31,622 67,486 7,474 3,700 1,767
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.7% 74.0% 8.2% 4.1% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
117 34 36 8 3 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
33,346 3,580 3,911 1,480 2,221 4,609
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
36.6% 3.9% 4.3% 1.6% 2.4% 5.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
40 7 16 9 4 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,951 3,886
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.6% 4.3%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher again on Friday and at the tope end of the weekly trading range. Trends remain up for at least the short term. The Dollar has been moving lower again. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid-crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.727 million tons. Down 5.4% from last year. Those ideas changed a little over the previous weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.252 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2820, 2780, and 2740 May, with resistance at 2920, 2960, and 2990 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2170, 2180, and 2220 May. Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2030 May, with resistance at 2150, 2170, and 2200 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 427,114
: Positions :
: 60,189 47,238 133,527 150,263 190,872 67,243 44,171 411,221 415,808: 15,893 11,306
: Changes from: March 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: 9,610) :
: -6,225 -12,940 10,510 6,718 12,432 -1,715 -175 9,287 9,827: 323 -217
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 11.1 31.3 35.2 44.7 15.7 10.3 96.3 97.4: 3.7 2.6
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 58 94 47 45 31 20 211 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/21/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
360,487 140,261 238,988 26,839 19,681 29,272
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 38.9% 66.3% 7.4% 5.5% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 45 40 17 8 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
82,752 8,275 23,555 15,492 1,763 36,833
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.0% 2.3% 6.5% 4.3% 0.5% 10.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 11 25 17 9 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,483 2,120
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322