Is The US the Only Game In Town For Corn Exports? The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/27/2023

We kickoff the day with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Gov. Jefferson Speech at 4:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front we closed higher on Friday in choppy trade. China continues to have a heavy appetite for US corn. With bad news and major concerns to acreage and yields the invasive fungal corn disease “tar spot” is spreading in South Central Pennsylvania in the coming is expected to expand across Pennsylvania in the coming season. Higher precipitation in the weeks leading to spring plantings has corn growers more concerned over the tar spot fungus. The disease can reduce yields from 20 to 100 bushels per acre. This disease attacks the leaf tissue and can rapidly deteriorates the plant. According to the Crop Protection Network, it is estimated that it caused farmers to lose $3 billion from 2018 to 2021 and has the potential to be more destructive in states that are now just seeing cases. The fungal pathogen that causes the disease survives over winter, meaning the disease won’t go away. “once you have it, you’re not going to get rid of it. It’s going to stay on corn residue in that field,” said Mandy Bish, integrated pest management coordinator at the University of Missouri. Since it’s early, farmers will wait to see how much of an effect tar spot will have in states where it’s just appearing. It thrives in mild temperatures and wet leaves. “Were learning some of those environmental conditions,” Bish said, “so we know that in 2018 and 2021 we really had bad outbreaks that caused significant yield loss, whereas in 2020 and 2022 the environmental conditions weren’t as favorable to the fungus. The spot moving across the Midwest and Great Plains according to a report from researchers at Kansas State University. The disease, which was present in Mexico, first appeared in Indiana and Illinois in 2015. Since then, it has spread to surrounding states- farmers spotted in Nebraska for the first time in 2021 and Missouri, Kansas and South Dakota last growing season. It’s spreading, I’d say, pretty quickly, throughout the Midwest  and in corn production regions,” said Rodrigo Onefre, a plant pathology professor at Kansas State University. This will make the 2023 planting season extra important. And the US farmers feared many months ago food shortages, especially with Argentina and the Ukraine on the corn export sidelines. We can also watch Brazil’s second corn crop and see who can globally deliver the corn crop. Eva Tesfaye with Harvest Public Media contributed to the facts. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 642 which is 1 cent lower. The trading range has been 644 to 638 in the early going.

Ob the Ethanol Front the ethanol market size is expected to increase by USD 163.9 Bn by 2032/CAGR of 4.9%. The ethanol market refers to the global trade in ethanol, a biofuel that from renewable resources such as corn, sugarcane, and other agricultural products. Ethanol is a colorless and flammable liquid that is commonly used as a fuel additive to increase octane rating of gasoline reduce harmful emissions, and improve overall engine performance. The market is driven by the increasing demand for biofuels, growing awareness about the environmental benefits of ethanol, and then increasing demand for renewable energy sources. This the way to go other than electric which they will take away internal combustion engines, gas stoves, and our air-conditioners. The global ethanol market has been growing steadily over the past few years, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy and a shift towards more sustainable fuels. The market is dominated by a few major players, including Archer Daniels Midland, Green Plains Inc., and Valero Energy Corporation, which collectively account for a significant share of global ethanol production. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

Have A Great Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

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