Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Softs Report 03/24/2023
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Mar 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 70.955 million pounds, in February, 1.4% above the previous
month, and 41.6% above February 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
In thousand pounds.
Feb 28 Jan 31 Feb 28 Jan 31 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Feb
pork bellies 70,955 69,991 50,115 44,707
orange juice 272,603 288,548 457,698 446,971
french fries 1,035,971 1,025,145 992,338 939,539
other potatoes 239,871 229,665 219,607 210,574
chicken rstr (whole) 13,075 13,552 11,931 13,509
ham 85,069 78,585 84,212 74,775
total pork 521,188 518,934 478,315 434,415 455,831
total beef 500,206 534,028 531,568 525,724 490,439
total red meat 1,051,619 1,080,107 1,035,117 986,396 975,120
total chicken 863,337 867,153 785,657 771,304
total turkey 322,297 289,356 292,897 243,749
total poultry 1,188,145 1,158,853 1,080,604 1,017,173 1,075,818
General Comments: Cotton was lower, and trends are sideways. The move came despite a strong weekly export sales report and amid continued economic uncertainty. The weekly export sales report showed good demand, and demand ideas are improving. Demand has been ramping up for the last couple of months but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.26 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 76.60, 75.40, and 74.00 May, with resistance of 80.30, 80.90 and 82.50 May.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Mar 23
As of Mar 17. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Mar 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 23 16,215 19,501 -3,286 16,383 17,115 -732
Jul 23 22,818 23,131 -313 4,809 4,763 46
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 13,618 13,178 440 21,481 21,241 240
Mar 24 2,294 2,216 78 1,349 1,348 1
May 24 1,039 1,006 33 0 0 0
Jul 24 814 803 11 550 550 0
Dec 24 2,615 2,706 -91 9,865 9,567 298
Mar 25 40 40 0 0 0 0
May 25 26 26 0 0 0 0
Jul 25 26 26 0 0 0 0
May 26 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 59,505 62,633 -3,128 54,437 54,584 -147
Open Open Change
Mar 23 0 5 -5
May 23 94,036 95,288 -1,252
Jul 23 45,721 44,981 740
Oct 23 16 19 -3
Dec 23 45,943 43,039 2,904
Mar 24 4,511 4,098 413
May 24 1,179 902 277
Jul 24 347 297 50
Dec 24 3,493 2,832 661
Mar 25 2 2 0
May 25 0 0 0
Jul 25 0 0 0
May 26 0 0 0
Total 195,248 191,463 3,785
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday but held to the recent trading range. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 416 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 416 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 234.00, 230.00, and 227.00 May, with resistance at 246.00, 250.00, and 253.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still affecting prices. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the recent rally has increased offers, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again after futures prices sold off. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.749 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 169.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 169.00, 164.00, and 161.00 May. Support is at 174.00, 171.00, and 170.00 May, and resistance is at 181.00, 183.00 and 185.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2180, 2200, and 2210 May. Support is at 2090, 2070, and 2030 May, and resistance is at 2140, 2160, and 2190 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday, and the trends are still trying to turn up in both markets. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Brazil production is solid this year. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south has seen drier weather. Most areas have good rains now. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 3260 and 2170 May. Support is at 2070, 2040, and 3010 May and resistance is at 2140, 2160, and 2190 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 609.00 and 627.00 May. Support is at 595.00, 591.00, and 585.00 May and resistance is at 609.00, 612.00, and 615.00 May.
COCOAQuestions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
General Comments: New York closed higher again, and trends remain up for at least the short term. London closed a little lower on currency concerns between the Brritish Pound and US Dollar. The Dollar has been moving lower again. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid-crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.727 million tons. Down 5.4% from last year. Those ideas changed a little over the previous weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.252 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2870, 2280, and 2960 May. Support is at 2820, 2780, and 2740 May, with resistance at 2920, 2960, and 2990 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2170, 2180, and 2220 May. Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2030 May, with resistance at 2150, 2170, and 2200 May.