Grains Report 03/24/2023

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Mar 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 70.955 million pounds, in February, 1.4% above the previous
month, and 41.6% above February 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Thursday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Feb 28 Jan 31 Feb 28 Jan 31 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Feb
pork bellies 70,955 69,991 50,115 44,707
orange juice 272,603 288,548 457,698 446,971
french fries 1,035,971 1,025,145 992,338 939,539
other potatoes 239,871 229,665 219,607 210,574
chicken rstr (whole) 13,075 13,552 11,931 13,509
ham 85,069 78,585 84,212 74,775
total pork 521,188 518,934 478,315 434,415 455,831
total beef 500,206 534,028 531,568 525,724 490,439
total red meat 1,051,619 1,080,107 1,035,117 986,396 975,120
total chicken 863,337 867,153 785,657 771,304
total turkey 322,297 289,356 292,897 243,749
total poultry 1,188,145 1,158,853 1,080,604 1,017,173 1,075,818
===============================================================================

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed yesterday on ideas that prices have fallen enough for current demand fundamentals. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. Trends turned sideways to up on the daily charts but remain down on the weekly charts. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Prices are now so cheap that Russia is reportedly thinking about imcreasing export tariffs or halting exports for a time to rally prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 654, 648, and 642 May, with resistance at 684, 697, and 712 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 810, 804, and 791 May, with resistance at 832, 837, and 847 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 833, 827, and 814 March, and resistance is at 852, 862, and 869 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday and trends are sideways on the charts, but could turn up today if the buying spree continues. Commercials were said to be the best buyers, but some speculative short covering was also seen. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was very low last week. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1712, 1695, and 1665 May and resistance is at 1762, 1772, and 1779 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday despite US Dollar weakness and the USDA export sales report that showed increased demand for US Corn. The Corn export sales report showed sales were at a marketing year high. Oats were higher and trends remain up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China bought 204,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 630, 625, and 623 May, and resistance is at 639, 645, and 648 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 371 May. Support is at 356, 353, and 349 May, and resistance is at 369, 372, and 378 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans the products were sharply lower as the Brazil harvest makes it way slowly to the market. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. However, the basis might get higher soon as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Production ideas there are stable and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said production could be 25 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1408 May. Support is at 1405, 1392 and 1380 May, and resistance is at 1439, 1455, and 1478 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 437.00, 422.00, and 405.00 May, and resistance is at 451.00, 454.00, and 461.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5050 May. Support is at 5130, 5000, and 4880 May, with resistance at 5500, 5600, and 5850 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on weakness in Chicago and despite demand concerns and yhat ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was much higher yesterday in recovery trading and trends are down. There are some ideas that Canola futures have fallen enough for now. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during last Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 700.00, 694.00, and 688.00 May, with resistance at 734.00, 741.00, and 761.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3410, 3320, and 3200 June, with resistance at 3720, 3750, and 3850 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rains and snows. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

April
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

May
100 May
175 May 100 May
107 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 23
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 721.76 1.75 May 2023 dn 7.65
Track Thunder Bay 765.20 30.00 May 2023 up 15.20
Track Vancouver 803.20 68.00 May 2023 up 15.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 925.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 905.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 880.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 837.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 935.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 915.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 890.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 847.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 700.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 3950.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 240.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.426)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 108,125 lots, or 5.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,418 5,442 5,405 5,433 5,447 5,418 -29 69,032 96,362
Jul-23 5,306 5,324 5,282 5,322 5,346 5,299 -47 24,998 73,590
Sep-23 5,256 5,285 5,231 5,276 5,310 5,257 -53 2,711 5,782
Nov-23 5,232 5,261 5,221 5,260 5,277 5,234 -43 8,654 39,353
Jan-24 5,227 5,236 5,200 5,236 5,260 5,212 -48 178 766
Mar-24 5,194 5,221 5,166 5,221 5,229 5,194 -35 2,552 4,462
Corn
Turnover: 1,181,167 lots, or 32.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,771 2,784 2,737 2,763 2,771 2,758 -13 383,226 492,722
Jul-23 2,764 2,772 2,725 2,745 2,760 2,743 -17 590,852 792,288
Sep-23 2,751 2,757 2,720 2,735 2,749 2,734 -15 55,851 157,397
Nov-23 2,695 2,698 2,672 2,684 2,689 2,683 -6 146,477 248,135
Jan-24 2,688 2,692 2,671 2,687 2,685 2,681 -4 4,597 15,873
Mar-24 2,680 2,682 2,671 2,678 2,678 2,674 -4 164 630
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,902,194 lots, or 6.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,554 3,554 3,448 3,507 3,559 3,493 -66 1,092,103 942,664
Jul-23 3,567 3,567 3,464 3,525 3,576 3,506 -70 62,388 213,720
Aug-23 3,615 3,620 3,520 3,577 3,631 3,563 -68 70,749 150,249
Sep-23 3,602 3,606 3,507 3,563 3,614 3,550 -64 507,864 613,807
Nov-23 3,585 3,589 3,478 3,551 3,601 3,537 -64 65,509 76,893
Dec-23 3,555 3,555 3,472 3,524 3,567 3,506 -61 41,230 30,432
Jan-24 3,485 3,487 3,400 3,450 3,496 3,440 -56 53,700 82,326
Mar-24 3,421 3,448 3,391 3,434 3,448 3,414 -34 8,651 10,512
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,364,528 lots, or 97.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,300 7,410 7,130 7,410 7,382 7,232 -150 961 5,460
May-23 7,206 7,332 7,026 7,330 7,306 7,190 -116 1,106,339 460,604
Jun-23 7,176 7,274 6,982 7,274 7,272 7,134 -138 32,073 99,202
Jul-23 7,126 7,206 6,934 7,206 7,210 7,066 -144 23,539 78,248
Aug-23 7,096 7,152 6,904 7,148 7,168 7,024 -144 17,878 50,412
Sep-23 7,070 7,104 6,854 7,102 7,104 6,986 -118 158,000 167,428
Oct-23 7,036 7,094 6,852 7,094 7,100 6,960 -140 16,467 30,898
Nov-23 7,008 7,092 6,856 7,092 7,102 6,972 -130 8,180 12,999
Dec-23 7,066 7,066 6,916 7,048 7,098 6,990 -108 24 186
Jan-24 7,034 7,088 6,866 7,082 7,098 6,968 -130 1,042 1,784
Feb-24 6,910 6,998 6,910 6,998 7,096 6,962 -134 8 96
Mar-24 7,000 7,136 6,944 7,136 7,070 7,006 -64 17 138
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,325,080 lots, or 10.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,828 7,872 7,564 7,848 7,884 7,748 -136 988,249 384,997
Jul-23 7,838 7,846 7,570 7,818 7,876 7,734 -142 48,327 104,833
Aug-23 7,826 7,838 7,568 7,808 7,868 7,718 -150 19,460 72,876
Sep-23 7,802 7,824 7,558 7,790 7,858 7,718 -140 213,893 210,666
Nov-23 7,794 7,824 7,546 7,774 7,852 7,696 -156 19,761 44,063
Dec-23 7,870 7,904 7,694 7,892 7,918 7,814 -104 26,726 32,841
Jan-24 7,862 7,882 7,668 7,866 7,904 7,784 -120 7,010 12,003
Mar-24 7,854 7,880 7,654 7,850 7,898 7,778 -120 1,654 2,547
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322