Grains Report 03/23/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 23
For the week ended Mar 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 125.6 13.0 17863.7 18890.8 2963.0 669.2
hrw 48.8 0.1 4858.6 7460.1 696.7 112.4
srw 24.0 7.5 2735.6 2755.9 491.4 381.8
hrs 6.4 5.4 5411.6 5179.2 924.8 94.9
white 13.3 0.0 4489.9 3307.2 772.4 43.2
durum 33.0 0.0 368.3 188.5 77.8 36.9
corn 3095.9 93.0 34941.0 53017.3 16354.1 1952.4
soybeans 152.5 199.0 49477.8 54036.2 5944.1 1745.2
soymeal 121.1 0.0 8386.5 9052.5 2666.0 264.0
soyoil 10.8 0.0 74.1 602.4 41.3 0.6
upland cotton 310.2 21.3 11179.1 13963.3 4958.3 1360.0
pima cotton 16.9 0.4 164.5 431.2 56.1 3.9
sorghum -3.6 0.0 1497.7 6776.4 855.0 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.9 28.6 3.9 6.0
rice 14.9 0.0 1568.4 2448.4 476.5 18.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on follow through selling as the world banking crisis s easing and as negotiations with Russia to extend the grain corridor deal with Ukraine were completed with a 60 day extension of the current agreement. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. Trends turned sideways to up on the daily charts but remain down on the weekly charts. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 654, 648, and 642 May, with resistance at 684, 697, and 712 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 787 and 749 May. Support is at 773, 770, and 769 May, with resistance at 830, 832, and 837 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 823 and 803 May. Support is at 814, 808, and 802 March, and resistance is at 848, 862, and 869 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday and trends are sideways on the charts. It was a consolidation day again yesterday but the price action is still positive for prices. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1712, 1695, and 1665 May and resistance is at 1749, 1762, and 1772.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed to a little higher yesterday, with nearby months supported by increased demand for US Corn. Oats were higher and trends remain up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China bought 123,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 623, 619, and 607 May, and resistance is at 639, 645, and 648 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 371 May. Support is at 356, 353, and 349 May, and resistance is at 372, 378, and 382 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans the products were lower as the Brazil harvest makes it way slowly to the market. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. However, the basis might get higher soon as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said production could be between 25 and 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1408 May. Support is at 1438, 1419 and 1407 May, and resistance is at 1455, 1478, and 1500 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 446.00 May. Support is at 446.00, 442.00, and 441.00 May, and resistance is at 454.00, 461.00, and 467.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5280 and 6060 May. Support is at 5390, 5280, and 5200 May, with resistance at 5500, 5600, and 5850 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on weakness in Chicago and despite demand concerns and on ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was much lower again yesterday and trends are down. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during last Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 716.00, 710.00, and 704.00 May, with resistance at 741.00, 761.00, and 767.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3590, 3570, and 3410 June, with resistance at 3720, 3750, and 3850 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rains and snows. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
115 May
175 May
115 May
110 May

April
115 May
175 May
115 May
1010 May

May
100 May
175 May 100 May
107 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 22
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 729.40 0.00 May 2023 dn 9.20
Track Thunder Bay 750.00 30.00 May 2023 dn 9.40
Track Vancouver 788.00 68.00 May 2023 dn 9.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 930.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 900.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 890.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 850.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 940.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 910.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 900.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 860.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 700.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 3980.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 240.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.417)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 112,314 lots, or 6.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,453 5,479 5,415 5,428 5,427 5,447 20 72,916 97,248
Jul-23 5,347 5,380 5,320 5,323 5,339 5,346 7 20,820 69,996
Sep-23 5,321 5,340 5,278 5,281 5,309 5,310 1 2,453 6,284
Nov-23 5,281 5,309 5,245 5,247 5,279 5,277 -2 10,964 38,136
Jan-24 5,264 5,295 5,225 5,240 5,270 5,260 -10 281 777
Mar-24 5,275 5,275 5,200 5,200 5,246 5,229 -17 4,880 4,258
Corn
Turnover: 810,086 lots, or 22.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,771 2,782 2,758 2,776 2,770 2,771 1 328,396 574,315
Jul-23 2,764 2,770 2,750 2,764 2,763 2,760 -3 333,081 719,951
Sep-23 2,750 2,760 2,737 2,752 2,750 2,749 -1 46,126 154,760
Nov-23 2,685 2,700 2,681 2,693 2,688 2,689 1 97,747 247,289
Jan-24 2,689 2,693 2,679 2,689 2,686 2,685 -1 4,514 14,966
Mar-24 2,682 2,685 2,675 2,679 2,681 2,678 -3 222 579
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,164,351 lots, or 41.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,594 3,599 3,525 3,544 3,610 3,559 -51 702,611 983,812
Jul-23 3,606 3,613 3,539 3,559 3,623 3,576 -47 44,762 215,433
Aug-23 3,657 3,670 3,598 3,613 3,681 3,631 -50 37,031 148,275
Sep-23 3,650 3,657 3,583 3,600 3,665 3,614 -51 292,090 619,177
Nov-23 3,635 3,638 3,571 3,583 3,650 3,601 -49 31,193 75,535
Dec-23 3,600 3,604 3,541 3,564 3,614 3,567 -47 23,982 29,569
Jan-24 3,529 3,535 3,472 3,480 3,545 3,496 -49 28,432 74,028
Mar-24 3,482 3,482 3,436 3,441 3,485 3,448 -37 4,250 7,721
Palm Oil
Turnover: 909,826 lots, or 66.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,510 7,510 7,306 7,308 7,628 7,382 -246 271 6,071
May-23 7,378 7,394 7,208 7,220 7,462 7,306 -156 739,665 483,550
Jun-23 7,360 7,362 7,176 7,186 7,432 7,272 -160 21,440 99,991
Jul-23 7,264 7,296 7,118 7,136 7,372 7,210 -162 17,097 78,069
Aug-23 7,210 7,248 7,082 7,092 7,320 7,168 -152 13,589 49,160
Sep-23 7,162 7,192 7,030 7,034 7,248 7,104 -144 100,361 155,104
Oct-23 7,138 7,180 7,020 7,036 7,268 7,100 -168 11,372 30,268
Nov-23 7,142 7,180 7,028 7,044 7,240 7,102 -138 5,270 12,465
Dec-23 7,154 7,180 7,056 7,056 7,250 7,098 -152 54 177
Jan-24 7,146 7,184 7,030 7,034 7,236 7,098 -138 691 1,669
Feb-24 7,136 7,152 7,046 7,046 7,220 7,096 -124 12 100
Mar-24 7,070 7,088 7,056 7,088 7,234 7,070 -164 4 131
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 687,412 lots, or 5.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,950 7,954 7,830 7,852 8,004 7,884 -120 522,498 403,081
Jul-23 7,948 7,960 7,828 7,848 8,000 7,876 -124 20,724 103,404
Aug-23 7,920 7,952 7,826 7,842 7,996 7,868 -128 9,197 71,057
Sep-23 7,900 7,934 7,806 7,816 7,986 7,858 -128 108,308 200,830
Nov-23 7,966 7,966 7,806 7,814 7,998 7,852 -146 9,636 43,907
Dec-23 7,966 7,986 7,884 7,890 8,030 7,918 -112 13,808 31,002
Jan-24 7,952 7,972 7,868 7,874 8,016 7,904 -112 2,659 11,058
Mar-24 7,924 7,960 7,864 7,866 8,016 7,898 -118 582 1,949
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322