About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower on follow through selling yesterday, and trends are still turning down. The weekly export sales report showed good demand, and demand ideas are improving but the world banking crisis has put many of the better demand ideas on hold for now. Demand has been ramping up for the last couple of months but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated to scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 74.90 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,661 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 71.70 May. Support is at 76.60, 75.40, and 74.00 May, with resistance of 79.20, 80.30 and 80.90 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday but remains supported overall by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 234.00, 230.00, and 227.00 May, with resistance at 246.00, 250.00, and 253.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher after a weaker start with the lack of offers from South America and Vietnam still affecting prices. Trends in both markets are sideways. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the recent rally has increased offers, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again after futures prices sold off. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.776 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 169.55 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 643 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 174.00, 171.00, and 170.00 May, and resistance is at 181.00, 183.00 and 185.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2020, 2000, and 1960 May, and resistance is at 2120, 2160, and 2190 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday, and the trends are mixed in both markets. The world is still short Sugar. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Brazil production is solid this year. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south has seen drier weather. Most areas have good rains now. European production is expected to be reduced again this year, with French planted area likely to decline to a 14 year low for Sugarbeets. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1980 May and resistance is at 2100, 2130, and 2160 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 577.00, 575.00, and 566.00 May and resistance is at 595.00, 603.00, and 609.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher, and trends are up for at least the short term in both New York and London. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid-crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.727 million tons. Down 5.4% from last year. Those ideas changed a little over the previous weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.150 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2660, 2610, and 2580 May, with resistance at 2700, 2740, and 2790 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2000, and 1980 May, with resistance at 2080, 2110, and 2130 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322