Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 03/21/2023
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 20
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Mar 20, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 16, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/16/2023 03/09/2023 03/17/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,010
CORN 1,188,666 1,015,175 1,496,798 17,523,428 27,430,767
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 94,495 72,899 336,332 914,662 3,823,817
SOYBEANS 716,618 633,367 556,642 44,061,650 42,836,015
SUNFLOWER 0 248 0 2,408 532
WHEAT 374,224 256,901 335,068 16,286,008 16,556,055
Total 2,374,003 1,978,590 2,724,840 78,796,996 90,657,920
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as negotiations with Russia to extend the grain corridor deal with Ukraine were completed with a 60 day extension of the current agreement. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. Trends turned sideways to up on the daily charts but remain down on the weekly charts. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 749 and 594 May.. Support is at 692, 683, and 661 May, with resistance at 712, 728, and 743 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 866 May. Support is at 821, 809, and 804 May, with resistance at 837, 853, and 862 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 865 and 888 May. Support is at 840, 831, and 814 March, and resistance is at 869, 880, and 887 May.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday and trends are up on the charts. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1714, 1695, and 1665 May and resistance is at 1749, 1762, and 1772.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday as there was no new demand shown on the daily reporting system by USDA. However, demand from China was very strong last week and near 2.0 million tons from the US. Oats were higher and trends have turned up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China bought 136,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 651 May. Support is at 625, 622, and 619 May, and resistance is at 639, 645, and 648 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 371 May. Support is at 349, 343, and 341 May, and resistance is at 362, 365, and 372 May.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were mixed, with nearby months higher on a lack of offers in the US and as the Brazil harvest makes it way slowly to the market. Soybean Oil was higher but held to a trading range. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. However, the basis might get higher soon as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said production could be between 25 and 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1462, 1458 and 1439 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1532 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 446.00 May. Support is at 457.00, 447.00, and 442.00 May, and resistance is at 475.00, 485.00, and 490.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5610, 5540, and 5510 May, with resistance at 5850, 5980, and 6050 May.
CANOLA Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on weakness in Chicago and despite demand concerns and on ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was much lower yesterday and trends are down. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during last Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 734.00, 728.00, and 722.00 May, with resistance at 761.00, 767.00, and 777.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3780 June. Support is at 3770, 3750, and 3720 June, with resistance at 3900, 3990, and 4050 June.
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
HRW
SRW
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
March
91 May
180 May
120 May
111 May
April
93 May
180 May
120 May
108 May
May
89 May
180 May
115 May
100 May
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 20
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 751.60 0.00 May 2023 dn 4.20
Track Thunder Bay 768.60 30.00 May 2023 dn 13.00
Track Vancouver 806.60 68.00 May 2023 dn 13.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084,
or cell 204-782-5944)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 947.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 930.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 915.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 875.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 957.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 940.00 +05,00 Unquoted – –
Jun 925.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 885.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 915.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 715.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4100.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 245.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.469)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 128,956 lots, or 6.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,454 5,456 5,402 5,438 5,463 5,427 -36 86,480 102,827
Jul-23 5,368 5,373 5,320 5,334 5,389 5,341 -48 23,788 67,577
Sep-23 5,365 5,365 5,283 5,302 5,367 5,313 -54 2,057 7,035
Nov-23 5,328 5,328 5,270 5,281 5,345 5,289 -56 12,166 36,223
Jan-24 5,278 5,309 5,252 5,259 5,324 5,264 -60 287 694
Mar-24 5,294 5,301 5,243 5,258 5,320 5,264 -56 4,178 3,702
Corn
Turnover: 1,125,746 lots, or 31.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,843 2,844 2,776 2,779 2,846 2,807 -39 543,092 623,337
Jul-23 2,832 2,833 2,766 2,770 2,838 2,791 -47 380,978 660,200
Sep-23 2,797 2,804 2,751 2,752 2,808 2,768 -40 64,778 147,173
Nov-23 2,741 2,741 2,691 2,693 2,745 2,707 -38 130,859 249,524
Jan-24 2,726 2,726 2,692 2,692 2,732 2,706 -26 5,705 13,528
Mar-24 2,716 2,717 2,694 2,694 2,722 2,701 -21 334 355
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,079,443 lots, or 39.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,610 3,651 3,594 3,640 3,653 3,626 -27 674,343 1,003,146
Jul-23 3,640 3,660 3,609 3,648 3,664 3,637 -27 44,969 213,246
Aug-23 3,679 3,713 3,663 3,700 3,727 3,688 -39 44,040 148,518
Sep-23 3,675 3,709 3,654 3,693 3,713 3,685 -28 226,948 601,259
Nov-23 3,665 3,688 3,641 3,676 3,703 3,667 -36 49,573 73,773
Dec-23 3,627 3,652 3,612 3,640 3,670 3,634 -36 18,863 28,131
Jan-24 3,556 3,588 3,545 3,572 3,602 3,567 -35 18,596 67,979
Mar-24 3,510 3,526 3,494 3,512 3,533 3,512 -21 2,111 5,956
Palm Oil
Turnover: 908,377 lots, or 69.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,770 7,804 7,634 7,648 7,800 7,752 -48 2,084 5,849
May-23 7,650 7,756 7,580 7,618 7,720 7,658 -62 752,545 441,769
Jun-23 7,670 7,714 7,548 7,578 7,690 7,622 -68 23,738 98,245
Jul-23 7,568 7,634 7,484 7,512 7,628 7,556 -72 17,470 76,097
Aug-23 7,508 7,568 7,442 7,462 7,582 7,504 -78 14,182 47,773
Sep-23 7,446 7,512 7,382 7,402 7,498 7,436 -62 80,802 119,320
Oct-23 7,392 7,472 7,350 7,374 7,480 7,410 -70 13,235 28,396
Nov-23 7,408 7,462 7,346 7,370 7,462 7,394 -68 4,035 11,720
Dec-23 7,380 7,442 7,360 7,368 7,398 7,380 -18 12 112
Jan-24 7,370 7,446 7,356 7,378 7,428 7,388 -40 274 1,188
Feb-24 – – – 7,394 7,394 7,394 0 0 91
Mar-24 – – – 7,398 7,398 7,398 0 0 109
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 598,685 lots, or 48.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,184 8,228 8,104 8,116 8,164 8,166 2 473,512 398,448
Jul-23 8,188 8,236 8,126 8,136 8,180 8,182 2 16,272 99,597
Aug-23 8,158 8,222 8,116 8,126 8,172 8,168 -4 8,808 68,863
Sep-23 8,132 8,192 8,094 8,100 8,138 8,138 0 78,662 186,463
Nov-23 8,118 8,178 8,084 8,086 8,130 8,124 -6 9,147 40,870
Dec-23 8,122 8,204 8,116 8,116 8,150 8,150 0 8,855 24,913
Jan-24 8,136 8,194 8,066 8,104 8,132 8,140 8 2,985 8,113
Mar-24 8,118 8,160 8,086 8,096 8,122 8,118 -4 444 1,399
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322