Softs Report 03/17/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was narrowly mixed to mostly a little lower yesterday, and trends are still turning down. The weekly export sales report showed good demand, and demand ideas are improving. Demand has been ramping up for the last couple of months but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 76.84 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,661 bales, from 1,661 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 71.70 May. Support is at 77.00, 75.40, and 74.00 May, with resistance of 80.50, 80.90 and 82.50 May.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Mar 16
As of Mar 10. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Mar 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 23 19,501 23,585 -4,084 17,115 16,873 242
Jul 23 23,131 24,472 -1,341 4,763 4,558 205
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 13,178 12,462 716 21,241 21,317 -76
Mar 24 2,216 1,980 236 1,348 1,294 54
May 24 1,006 830 176 0 0 0
Jul 24 803 803 0 550 550 0
Dec 24 2,706 2,662 44 9,567 7,301 2,266
Mar 25 40 40 0 0 0 0
May 25 26 26 0 0 0 0
Jul 25 26 26 0 0 0 0
May 26 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 62,633 66,886 -4,253 54,584 51,893 2,691
Open Open Change
Int Int
Mar 23 5 6 -1
May 23 95,288 92,479 2,809
Jul 23 44,981 45,857 -876
Oct 23 19 16 3
Dec 23 43,039 38,228 4,811
Mar 24 4,098 3,932 166
May 24 902 710 192
Jul 24 297 296 1
Dec 24 2,832 2,690 142
Mar 25 2 2 0
May 25 0 0 0
Jul 25 0 0 0
May 26 0 0 0
Total 191,463 184,216 7,247

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday in range trading but remains supported overall by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US. The Florida Dept of Citrus reported that inventories are still 38.5% below last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 234.00, 230.00, and 227.00 May, with resistance at 246.00, 250.00, and 253.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on reports of reduced offers into the cash market from producers after the recent fall in prices. Trends in New York turned sideways with the price action, but London trends are still mostly down. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the recent rally has increased offers. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.788 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 171.76 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 5 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 643 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 175.00, 171.00, and 170.00 May, and resistance is at 181.00, 183.00 and 185.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1990 May. Support is at 2080, 2050, and 2020 May, and resistance is at 2120, 2160, and 2190 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher, and the trends are turning mixed in both markets. The world is still short Sugar. Indian production is thought to be 33 million tons this year or less and Thailand mills are closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Brazil production is solid this year. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south has seen drier weather. European production is expected to be reduced again this year, with French planted area likely to decline to a 14 year low for Sugarbeets. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2010, 1950, and 1900 May. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1980 May and resistance is at 2100, 2130, and 2160 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 583.00, 577.00, and 574.00 May and resistance is at 595.00, 603.00, and 609.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher, and trends are now mixed in both New York and London. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid-crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Those ideas changed a little over the previous weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.134 million bags. ICE NY said that there were 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 621 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2660, 2610, and 2580 May, with resistance at 2700, 2740, and 2790 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2000, and 1980 May, with resistance at 2080, 2110, and 2130 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322