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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 03/17/2023

By On March 17, 2023 - 10:57 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Mar 16
     Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended March 12, 2023. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
     Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2913.9  700.1  358.1  443.5  55.8  1281.3  349.9  264.1  6889.6
Week Ago  3035.5  673.2  359.3  414.9  52.7  1275.9  356.4  259.9  6897.6
Year Ago  2783.2  880.3  315.9  281.7  53.0  1517.9  405.2  295.4  7022.1
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week  459.2  130.6   50.6   93.1   6.4   448.3   46.1   11.9  1340.5
Week Ago   565.3  170.2   46.1   72.0   6.9   432.1   66.9    9.1  1453.4
To Date  15245.1 3829.8 1647.3 3370.2 103.1 12314.2 2077.8  273.3 41646.3
Year Ago 10250.4 1814.6 1355.3 2943.8 158.3 10316.1 1471.1  468.5 30635.9
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week  422.1  137.6   25.5   47.2   0.0   209.0   33.9   80.7   991.9
Week Ago   373.7   96.8    5.9   35.7   0.0   229.5   41.9   62.1   874.8
To Date  14313.5 3832.6  212.3 2004.5   1.3  6186.3 1486.6 1111.5 34264.0
Year Ago  9233.1 2101.8  155.3 1788.1  27.0  4585.0  850.7  825.3 23978.0
EXPORTS
This Week  520.5   76.1   17.7   67.2   0.6   196.2   63.1  101.7  1088.4
Week Ago   463.8   68.2   33.9   67.7   1.3   224.3    1.0   65.1   933.3
To Date  12337.2 3346.4  863.8 2210.3  36.2  5505.8 1372.6  929.6 30662.6
Year Ago  7320.5 1541.6  782.0 1730.0  60.3  3889.7  843.9  584.9 19814.9
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week   94.7    2.2   11.8   26.6   1.8   217.0    5.8   26.7   408.2
Week Ago    42.6    7.6   13.1   27.0   1.2   168.7    7.3   24.4   315.2
To Date   2658.3  380.3  535.6  987.2  48.7  6301.0  204.4  866.2 13344.0
Year Ago  2552.2  282.5  529.9 1162.3  42.0  5713.2  176.6 1542.7 13266.6
     *Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
     Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat markets were a little lower yesterday as negotiations with Russia to extend the grain corridor deal with Ukraine are just now getting started.  Russia is talking about a short term extension while everyone else wants one for at least 120 days.  Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices.  The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less.  Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year.   Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market.  The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed..  Support is at 661, 656, and 650 May, with resistance at 709, 712, and 728 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 827, 835, and 866 May.  Support is at 804, 773, and 770 May, with resistance at 832, 837, and 853 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 865 and 888 May.  Support is at 840, 831, and 814 March, and resistance is at 860, 869, and 880 May.
RICE:
General Comments:   Rice was mostly a little4 lower yesterday in consolidation trading and trends are still up on the charts.  Demand has been good from domestic sources.  Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report.  Demand has been an issue for the market all year.  There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.  Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet.  Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports.  Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1714, 1695, and 1665 May and resistance is at 1749, 1762, and 1772.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments:  Corn closed higher yesterday and short term trends are up.  News that China had bought over 600,000 tons of US Corn for the third day in a row was positive for higher prices.  China has now bought about 1.92 million tons of US Corn this week.  Oats were lower.  US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials.  Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve.  The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus.  The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions.  Tt has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well.  Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end.  NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino.  US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:   China bought 191,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 637 and 651 May.  Support is at 622, 619, and 607 May, and resistance is at 645, 648, and 652 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 338, 333, and 328 May, and resistance is at 353, 358, and 361 May.
SOYBEANS
General Comments:  Soybeans were mixed yesterday as the Brazil harvest makes it way to the market but the Argentine harvest gets reduced again.  Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was higher.  Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now.  In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced its production estimate to 25 to 27 million tons, from about 40 million at the start of the year.  Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor.  Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now.  Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports.  It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse.  Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons.  Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon.  Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing.  Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south.  Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May.  Support is at 1478, 1476, and 1472 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1538 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 462.00 and 446.00 May.  Support is at 472.00, 466.00, and 465.00 May, and resistance is at 485.00, 490.00, and 498.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5650, 5540, and 5510 May, with resistance at 5820, 5850, and 5880 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments:   Palm Oil closed lower today on weakness in Chicago and despite demand concerns and on ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China.  The market was lower today along with weakness in Chicago.  Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry.  The controls are expected to last through Ramadan.  Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains.  Flash floods are being reported.  Canola was higher in recovery trading.  Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months.  Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.  Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.  It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with no objectives.  Support is at 734.00, 728.00, and 722.00 May, with resistance at 761.00, 767.00, and 777.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3780 June.  Support is at 3900, 3880, and 3850 June, with resistance at 4050, 4110, and 4170 June.
Midwest Weather Forecast:  Scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
      Corn  HRW   SRW   Soybeans    Soybean Meal      Soybean Oil
March
91 May
180 May
120 May
111 May
April
93 May
180 May
120 May
108 May
May
89 May
180 May     115 May
100 May
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 16
WINNIPEG, March 15 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
                      Price     Basis     Contract     Change
CANOLA
*Par Region           751.00     0.00     May 2023     dn  6.60
Track Thunder Bay     785.80    30.00     May 2023     up  4.80
Track Vancouver       820.80    65.00     May 2023     up  4.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084,
or cell 204-782-5944)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 17
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
March         970.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr           962.50      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
May/Jun       950.00     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   905.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
March         980.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr           972.50      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
May/Jun       960.00     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   915.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           950.00     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           732.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           4200.00    +50.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
4Mar           246.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.483)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 110,700 lots, or 6.02 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
May-23     5,491     5,496     5,438     5,446     5,491     5,461       -30    75,437   103,576
Jul-23     5,435     5,437     5,380     5,381     5,429     5,398       -31    19,644    66,653
Sep-23     5,407     5,413     5,360     5,365     5,415     5,376       -39     1,541     7,427
Nov-23     5,390     5,392     5,338     5,341     5,384     5,354       -30    10,316    34,739
Jan-24     5,350     5,350     5,315     5,320     5,365     5,324       -41        56       468
Mar-24     5,350     5,350     5,280     5,302     5,345     5,310       -35     3,706     2,322
Corn
Turnover: 434,973 lots, or 1.23 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
May-23     2,827     2,845     2,820     2,836     2,827     2,832         5   220,060   641,118
Jul-23     2,824     2,841     2,816     2,832     2,823     2,829         6   141,056   599,702
Sep-23     2,795     2,812     2,789     2,802     2,794     2,801         7    16,563   129,393
Nov-23     2,735     2,748     2,730     2,740     2,736     2,740         4    55,851   239,296
Jan-24     2,730     2,740     2,726     2,734     2,728     2,733         5     1,362    11,130
Mar-24     2,722     2,728     2,718     2,723     2,721     2,722         1        81        89
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,232,626 lots, or 4.61 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                  Interest
May-23     3,758     3,762     3,700     3,701     3,751     3,730       -21   784,303   1,099,683
Jul-23     3,758     3,765     3,714     3,716     3,757     3,738       -19    52,737     216,489
Aug-23     3,806     3,810     3,760     3,760     3,805     3,788       -17    39,231     148,732
Sep-23     3,781     3,795     3,750     3,750     3,786     3,772       -14   257,233     574,661
Nov-23     3,766     3,768     3,724     3,724     3,761     3,749       -12    39,009      71,092
Dec-23     3,725     3,733     3,695     3,696     3,723     3,712       -11    20,411      27,440
Jan-24     3,652     3,662     3,625     3,631     3,651     3,640       -11    35,648      60,280
Mar-24     3,579     3,582     3,543     3,557     3,570     3,564        -6     4,054       4,742
Palm Oil
Turnover: 913,688 lots, or 70.84 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Apr-23     7,810     7,910     7,712     7,862     7,810     7,818         8    12,674     9,428
May-23     7,756     7,880     7,640     7,808     7,750     7,784        34   752,260   416,802
Jun-23     7,730     7,836     7,602     7,760     7,724     7,744        20    19,567    97,335
Jul-23     7,650     7,758     7,538     7,696     7,672     7,672         0    17,415    73,484
Aug-23     7,610     7,678     7,478     7,620     7,610     7,606        -4    14,525    47,036
Sep-23     7,530     7,608     7,420     7,558     7,550     7,532       -18    79,185   106,928
Oct-23     7,494     7,574     7,388     7,522     7,536     7,506       -30    14,005    26,914
Nov-23     7,486     7,556     7,376     7,500     7,506     7,500        -6     3,686    10,650
Dec-23     7,468     7,520     7,438     7,520     7,454     7,498        44         8       107
Jan-24     7,468     7,520     7,356     7,478     7,476     7,448       -28       278     1,034
Feb-24     7,388     7,486     7,388     7,486     7,478     7,418       -60         4        91
Mar-24     7,428     7,510     7,392     7,510     7,472     7,478         6        81        85
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 782,198 lots, or 63.90 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
May-23     8,198     8,230     8,060     8,182     8,240     8,170       -70   596,341   409,154
Jul-23     8,238     8,240     8,090     8,202     8,250     8,192       -58    22,979    97,548
Aug-23     8,238     8,238     8,086     8,192     8,244     8,186       -58    11,899    66,470
Sep-23     8,180     8,198     8,062     8,164     8,198     8,158       -40   114,468   169,636
Nov-23     8,182     8,182     8,052     8,152     8,182     8,148       -34    14,140    40,721
Dec-23     8,170     8,206     8,078     8,174     8,208     8,170       -38    18,606    24,816
Jan-24     8,178     8,190     8,060     8,158     8,182     8,150       -32     3,053     7,204
Mar-24     8,142     8,178     8,040     8,144     8,162     8,132       -30       712     1,194
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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