Grains Report 03/16/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 16
For the week ended Mar 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 336.7 155.9 17738.1 18735.2 3198.9 656.2
hrw 69.6 0.0 4809.7 7426.0 691.4 112.3
srw 13.2 155.7 2711.5 2770.6 524.6 374.3
hrs 138.6 0.2 5405.1 5087.8 1030.2 89.5
white 95.2 0.0 4476.5 3262.4 907.9 43.2
durum 20.0 0.0 335.2 188.5 44.7 36.9
corn 1236.2 183.5 31886.2 52038.6 14639.5 1859.4
soybeans 665.0 66.1 49334.9 53624.0 6495.9 1546.2
soymeal 220.1 35.0 8265.4 8791.8 2814.2 264.0
soyoil 3.9 0.0 63.2 604.4 30.8 0.6
upland cotton 225.5 12.8 10868.9 13655.7 4920.6 1338.7
pima cotton 7.6 0.0 147.6 428.3 46.3 3.5
sorghum 293.3 63.0 1501.4 6782.8 908.1 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.9 28.5 3.9 6.0
rice 25.8 13.0 1553.5 2364.6 475.9 18.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN March Mar 16, 2023 1 Mar 14, 2023
MINI-SIZED SOYBEANS March Mar 16, 2023 5 Mar 15, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday as negotiations with Russia to extend the grain corridor deal with Ukraine are just now getting started. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand but did cut world ending stocks levels. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.. Support is at 661, 656, and 650 May, with resistance at 709, 712, and 728 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 827, 835, and 866 May. Support is at 804, 773, and 770 May, with resistance at 832, 837, and 853 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 865 and 888 May. Support is at 840, 831, and 814 March, and resistance is at 860, 869, and 880 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday and trends have are up on the charts. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1714, 1695, and 1665 May and resistance is at 1749, 1762, and 1772.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday and short term trends are turning up. News that China had bought over 670,000 tons of US Corn was positive for higher prices. China has now bought almost 1.3 million tons of US Corn in the last two days. Oats were higher. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. Tt has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China bought 641,000 tons of US Corn. This makes 1.92 million tons so far this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 637 and 651 May. Support is at 619, 607, and 603 May, and resistance is at 630, 634, and 645 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 342, 338, and 333 May, and resistance is at 353, 358, and 361 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower yesterday as the Brazil harvest makes it way to the market. Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was higher. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Argentine production was cut and could be cut eve n more in coming USDA reports but Brazil production was not and the Brazil crop is coming to export channels and that is bearish to US prices. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1478, 1476, and 1472 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1538 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 472.00, 466.00, and 465.00 May, and resistance is at 485.00, 490.00, and 498.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5540, 5510, and 5390 May, with resistance at 5740, 5820, and 5850 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on demand concerns andon ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China. The market was lower today along with weakness in Chicago. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was lower on demand concerns as ideas that Brazil will capture demand for the world market. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Soybean and Palm Oil were lower as was European Rapeseed. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 740.00, 734.00, and 728.00 May, with resistance at 761.00, 767.00, and 777.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3780 June. Support is at 3930, 3900, and 3880 June, with resistance at 4050, 4110, and 4170 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
91 May
180 May
120 May
111 May

April
93 May
180 May
120 May
108 May

May
89 May
180 May 115 May
100 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 757.60 0.00 May 2023 dn 10.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 781.00 30.00 May 2023 dn 6.60
Basis: Vancouver 816.00 65.00 May 2023 dn 6.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thurssday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 967.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 962.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 935.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 905.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 977.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 972.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 945.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 915.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 935.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 727.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4150.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
4Mar 246.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 106,530 lots, or 5.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,478 5,517 5,470 5,491 5,494 5,491 -3 73,272 109,597
Jul-23 5,420 5,451 5,411 5,436 5,433 5,429 -4 18,905 65,339
Sep-23 5,405 5,450 5,392 5,406 5,405 5,415 10 2,194 7,428
Nov-23 5,383 5,404 5,370 5,380 5,383 5,384 1 10,463 33,330
Jan-24 5,349 5,385 5,349 5,362 5,361 5,365 4 85 452
Mar-24 5,345 5,370 5,329 5,345 5,346 5,345 -1 1,611 1,583
Corn
Turnover: 391,954 lots, or 11.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,826 2,836 2,821 2,824 2,834 2,827 -7 191,663 653,340
Jul-23 2,822 2,831 2,818 2,821 2,831 2,823 -8 117,215 602,976
Sep-23 2,795 2,801 2,787 2,791 2,803 2,794 -9 20,591 130,109
Nov-23 2,735 2,744 2,729 2,731 2,743 2,736 -7 59,958 240,794
Jan-24 2,730 2,734 2,724 2,728 2,732 2,728 -4 2,450 11,300
Mar-24 2,720 2,729 2,719 2,719 2,725 2,721 -4 77 74
Soymeal
Turnover: 924,112 lots, or 34.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,755 3,774 3,735 3,745 3,763 3,751 -12 582,603 1,093,716
Jul-23 3,766 3,778 3,742 3,751 3,768 3,757 -11 32,513 225,460
Aug-23 3,875 3,875 3,789 3,798 3,809 3,805 -4 33,435 146,821
Sep-23 3,790 3,805 3,772 3,776 3,800 3,786 -14 189,377 561,283
Nov-23 3,736 3,777 3,736 3,755 3,771 3,761 -10 38,522 69,898
Dec-23 3,728 3,738 3,708 3,719 3,736 3,723 -13 18,678 25,838
Jan-24 3,660 3,699 3,633 3,646 3,667 3,651 -16 26,491 60,353
Mar-24 3,587 3,587 3,555 3,570 3,588 3,570 -18 2,493 2,975
Palm Oil
Turnover: 995,194 lots, or 76.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,814 7,890 7,736 7,776 7,814 7,810 -4 10,194 20,021
May-23 7,750 7,842 7,668 7,734 7,822 7,750 -72 805,147 438,880
Jun-23 7,718 7,804 7,642 7,688 7,794 7,724 -70 22,078 95,005
Jul-23 7,700 7,744 7,582 7,622 7,736 7,672 -64 14,650 71,001
Aug-23 7,602 7,686 7,528 7,560 7,690 7,610 -80 15,204 46,110
Sep-23 7,600 7,640 7,468 7,510 7,646 7,550 -96 107,384 105,531
Oct-23 7,546 7,608 7,440 7,474 7,624 7,536 -88 16,028 25,348
Nov-23 7,512 7,588 7,424 7,464 7,608 7,506 -102 4,024 10,248
Dec-23 7,510 7,516 7,426 7,440 7,600 7,454 -146 11 109
Jan-24 7,536 7,552 7,410 7,446 7,562 7,476 -86 447 988
Feb-24 7,496 7,510 7,400 7,400 7,550 7,478 -72 9 89
Mar-24 7,516 7,528 7,420 7,450 7,586 7,472 -114 18 19
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 861,584 lots, or 70.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,302 8,360 8,126 8,166 8,404 8,240 -164 691,857 415,653
Jul-23 8,298 8,352 8,154 8,190 8,394 8,250 -144 24,684 95,744
Aug-23 8,284 8,330 8,152 8,180 8,370 8,244 -126 9,591 64,949
Sep-23 8,264 8,302 8,126 8,158 8,336 8,198 -138 112,604 170,440
Nov-23 8,226 8,278 8,118 8,134 8,308 8,182 -126 7,524 39,248
Dec-23 8,210 8,288 8,138 8,160 8,328 8,208 -120 11,992 23,084
Jan-24 8,246 8,268 8,114 8,136 8,290 8,182 -108 2,765 6,550
Mar-24 8,218 8,244 8,104 8,128 8,270 8,162 -108 567 1,079
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322