Grains Report 03/15/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 16, 2023 1 Feb 27, 2023
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 16, 2023 144 Mar 14, 2023
CORN March Mar 16, 2023 55 Mar 14, 2023
OATS March Mar 16, 2023 1 Mar 14, 2023
WHEAT March Mar 16, 2023 39 Mar 14, 2023
MINI-SIZED CORN March Mar 16, 2023 5 Mar 10, 2023

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections Exported by Rail
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED MAR 15, 2023 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING FEBRUARY 2023
————————————————————————
Feb-23 Jan-23 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SWW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 299 299
CANOLA 105 10,478 0 10,478
CORN WHITE 62 6,187 13,572 19,759
CORN YELLOW 7,482 746,632 765,989 1,512,621
CORN MIXED 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
WHT SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 2,152 214,749 412,635 627,384
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 32 3,193 0 3,193
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 442 44,110 71,152 115,262
WHEAT HRW 1,443 144,002 158,868 302,870
WHEAT SRW 470 46,901 8,483 55,834
WHEAT SWW 9 899 4,892 5,791
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWW=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Niki Davila 503-535-5001 Nicole.davila@usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday as negotiations with Russia to extend the grain corridor deal with Ukraine are just now getting started and are centered on a 60 day extension of the agreement. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand but did cut world ending stocks levels. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.. Support is at 661, 656, and 650 May, with resistance at 702, 709, and 722 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 827, 835, and 866 May. Support is at 804, 773, and 770 May, with resistance at 815, 832, and 837 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 814, 808, and 802 March, and resistance is at 853, 860, and 869 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher yesterday and trends have are up on the charts. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1695, 1665, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1724, 1742, and 1746.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 15
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.45 11.30 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.22 11.99 0.00
Brokens 10.73 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 6.81
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 6.93

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. News that China had bought over 600,000 tons of US Corn was positive for higher prices. Oats were higher. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. Tt has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China bought 667,000 tons of US Corn
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 607, 603, and 600 May, and resistance is at 622, 630, and 634 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 342, 338, and 333 May, and resistance is at 353, 358, and 361 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher yesterday as the Brazil harvest makes it way to the market. Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was higher. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Argentine production was cut and could be cut eve n more in coming USDA reports but Brazil production was not and the Brazil crop is coming to export channels and that is bearish to US prices. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1484, 1478, and 1476 May, and resistance is at 1516, 1538, and 1549 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 466.00 May, and resistance is at 490.00, 498.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5540, 5510, and 5390 May, with resistance at 5740, 5820, and 5850 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower yesterday on demand concerns and despite ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China. The market was lower today along with weakness in Chicago. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was lower on demand concerns as ideas that Brazil will capture demand for the world market. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Soybean and Palm Oil were lower as was European Rapeseed. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 764.00, 768.00, and 752.00 May, with resistance at 790.00, 803.00, and 817.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3780 June. Support is at 3940, 3900, and 3880 June, with resistance at 4050, 4110, and 4170 June.

DJ Malaysia March 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Rose on Month to 750,530 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for March 1-15 are estimated to have risen 71.62% from the previous month to 750,530 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
March 1-15 Feb. 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 222,765 114,940
RBD Palm Oil 47,525 55,305
RBD Palm Stearin 76,840 15,380
Crude Palm Oil 162,560 101,380
Total* 750,530 437,327
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
91 May
180 May
120 May
111 May

April
93 May
180 May
120 May
108 May

May
89 May
180 May 115 May
100 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 14
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 767.80 0.00 May 2023 dn 10.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 787.60 30.00 May 2023 dn 10.20
Basis: Vancouver 822.60 65.00 May 2023 dn 10.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 975.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 970.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 945.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 920.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 985.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 980.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 955.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 930.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 940.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 730.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4200.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
4Mar 247.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.482)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 105,492 lots, or 5.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,524 5,535 5,473 5,478 5,527 5,494 -33 72,106 111,647
Jul-23 5,450 5,469 5,411 5,414 5,458 5,433 -25 20,139 63,440
Sep-23 5,428 5,439 5,390 5,400 5,419 5,405 -14 3,444 7,358
Nov-23 5,389 5,399 5,370 5,374 5,395 5,383 -12 6,899 31,805
Jan-24 5,359 5,375 5,352 5,358 5,370 5,361 -9 220 468
Mar-24 5,350 5,371 5,331 5,331 5,370 5,346 -24 2,684 971
Corn
Turnover: 326,375 lots, or 9.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,829 2,840 2,828 2,832 2,828 2,834 6 159,946 657,328
Jul-23 2,827 2,836 2,826 2,828 2,824 2,831 7 85,983 602,378
Sep-23 2,804 2,808 2,798 2,799 2,799 2,803 4 23,090 128,029
Nov-23 2,732 2,747 2,732 2,738 2,731 2,743 12 55,446 241,887
Jan-24 2,727 2,737 2,727 2,731 2,723 2,732 9 1,875 10,842
Mar-24 2,727 2,734 2,723 2,734 2,723 2,725 2 35 23
Soymeal
Turnover: 824,999 lots, or 31.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,765 3,784 3,746 3,768 3,778 3,763 -15 515,445 1,116,080
Jul-23 3,766 3,792 3,753 3,774 3,773 3,768 -5 28,520 227,283
Aug-23 3,811 3,832 3,796 3,819 3,825 3,809 -16 30,504 147,037
Sep-23 3,796 3,822 3,781 3,803 3,805 3,800 -5 183,801 544,077
Nov-23 3,764 3,791 3,753 3,779 3,778 3,771 -7 31,127 69,562
Dec-23 3,737 3,752 3,723 3,742 3,746 3,736 -10 12,586 25,786
Jan-24 3,662 3,685 3,652 3,672 3,676 3,667 -9 20,418 55,609
Mar-24 3,630 3,632 3,568 3,595 3,676 3,588 -88 2,598 1,541
Palm Oil
Turnover: 693,631 lots, or 5.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-23 7,762 7,890 7,762 7,868 7,762 7,814 52 12,760 21,531
May-23 7,750 7,870 7,750 7,830 7,764 7,822 58 565,842 448,405
Jun-23 7,752 7,840 7,736 7,802 7,752 7,794 42 15,509 94,172
Jul-23 7,706 7,788 7,680 7,740 7,706 7,736 30 12,100 70,453
Aug-23 7,668 7,734 7,630 7,688 7,670 7,690 20 11,085 46,028
Sep-23 7,606 7,698 7,588 7,644 7,624 7,646 22 60,539 101,406
Oct-23 7,576 7,668 7,568 7,600 7,604 7,624 20 12,342 25,831
Nov-23 7,554 7,640 7,538 7,600 7,576 7,608 32 3,187 9,745
Dec-23 7,604 7,604 7,596 7,596 7,524 7,600 76 2 102
Jan-24 7,510 7,592 7,508 7,554 7,532 7,562 30 255 905
Feb-24 – – – 7,550 7,550 7,550 0 0 88
Mar-24 7,606 7,606 7,554 7,554 7,550 7,586 36 10 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 533,432 lots, or 44.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,394 8,456 8,366 8,370 8,414 8,404 -10 428,350 420,666
Jul-23 8,398 8,442 8,356 8,364 8,408 8,394 -14 12,540 94,535
Aug-23 8,350 8,420 8,334 8,340 8,390 8,370 -20 5,548 63,136
Sep-23 8,310 8,380 8,292 8,320 8,336 8,336 0 68,475 156,697
Nov-23 8,284 8,352 8,268 8,280 8,306 8,308 2 8,261 38,697
Dec-23 8,294 8,926 8,280 8,294 8,322 8,328 6 7,538 22,525
Jan-24 8,276 8,338 8,264 8,278 8,286 8,290 4 1,378 5,950
Mar-24 8,328 8,328 8,248 8,252 8,286 8,270 -16 1,342 951
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322