Grains Report 03/14/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 15, 2023 3 Mar 09, 2023
ROUGH RICE March Mar 15, 2023 2 Mar 13, 2023
CORN March Mar 15, 2023 1 Feb 28, 2023
OATS March Mar 15, 2023 4 Mar 01, 2023
SOYBEAN March Mar 15, 2023 2 Feb 28, 2023
WHEAT March Mar 15, 2023 28 Mar 13, 2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 13
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Mar 13, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 09, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/09/2023 03/02/2023 03/10/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,010
CORN 999,388 933,312 1,146,807 16,318,510 25,933,969
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 72,899 72,114 261,389 820,167 3,487,485
SOYBEANS 618,803 552,388 798,693 43,329,564 42,279,373
SUNFLOWER 248 0 100 2,408 532
WHEAT 249,017 341,087 307,584 15,903,900 16,220,987
Total 1,940,355 1,898,901 2,514,573 76,383,389 87,933,080
————————————————————————-

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday as negotiations with Russia to extend the grain corridor deal with Ukraine are just now getting started. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand but did cut world ending stocks levels. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 661, 656, and 650 May, with resistance at 702, 709, and 722 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 773, 770, and 764 May, with resistance at 815, 832, and 837 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 814, 808, and 802 March, and resistance is at 853, 860, and 869 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was narrowly sharply higher yesterday and trends have turned up on the charts. The USDA WASDE reports showed reduced export demand but this was already factored into the price structure as the selling had come before the release of the reports. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 16867 and 1718 May. Support is at 1665, 1625, and 1620 May and resistance is at 1694, 1714, and 1724.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. Oats were higher. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China bought 612,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 593 May. Support is at 606, 603, and 600 May, and resistance is at 622, 630, and 634 May. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 342, 338, and 333 May, and resistance is at 353, 358, and 361 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower yesterday as the Brazil harvest makes it way to the market. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Argentine production was cut but Brazil production was not and the Brazil crop is coming to export channels and that is bearish to US prices. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels now. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1489, 1478, and 1476 May, and resistance is at 1516, 1538, and 1549 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 466.00 May, and resistance is at 490.00, 498.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5510, 5390, and 5280 May, with resistance at 5740, 5820, and 5850 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week on demand concerns and despite ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China. The market was lower today along with weakness in Chicago. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was lower on price action in Chicago and on demand concerns as ideas that Brazil will capture demand for the world market. Brazil is expected t dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Soybean and Palm Oil were lower as was European Rapeseed. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 764.00, 768.00, and 752.00 May, with resistance at 790.00, 803.00, and 817.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3780 June. Support is at 3940, 3900, and 3880 June, with resistance at 4050, 4110, and 4170 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
91 May
180 May
120 May
111 May

April
93 May
180 May
120 May
108 May

May
89 May
180 May 115 May
100 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 777.80 0.00 May 2023 dn 14.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 797.80 30.00 May 2023 dn 10.00
Basis: Vancouver 832.80 65.00 May 2023 dn 10.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 970.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 960.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 935.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 912.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 980.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 970.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 945.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 922.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 940.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 730.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4180.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 247.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.482)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 95,863 lots, or 5.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,550 5,550 5,550 5,550 5,550 5,524 -26 160 0
May-23 5,546 5,549 5,507 5,514 5,556 5,527 -29 68,584 117,251
Jul-23 5,464 5,475 5,439 5,453 5,485 5,458 -27 17,665 62,002
Sep-23 5,435 5,446 5,404 5,418 5,450 5,419 -31 1,186 6,524
Nov-23 5,402 5,413 5,375 5,389 5,420 5,395 -25 8,244 30,024
Jan-24 5,373 5,386 5,350 5,365 5,392 5,370 -22 24 382
Corn
Turnover: 549,490 lots, or 15.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 2,814 2,788 2,814 26 0 0
May-23 2,830 2,841 2,816 2,833 2,835 2,828 -7 291,152 660,775
Jul-23 2,826 2,838 2,813 2,834 2,833 2,824 -9 160,039 604,093
Sep-23 2,809 2,810 2,791 2,806 2,805 2,799 -6 22,938 129,511
Nov-23 2,731 2,744 2,720 2,740 2,733 2,731 -2 72,998 244,556
Jan-24 2,720 2,733 2,716 2,728 2,720 2,723 3 2,363 10,675
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,048,156 lots, or 39.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 3,869 3,873 3,852 3,860 3,942 3,961 19 520 0
May-23 3,792 3,808 3,755 3,765 3,792 3,778 -14 682,775 1,134,522
Jul-23 3,780 3,800 3,752 3,766 3,784 3,773 -11 34,032 225,259
Aug-23 3,823 3,847 3,803 3,810 3,833 3,825 -8 30,283 145,089
Sep-23 3,812 3,831 3,783 3,796 3,817 3,805 -12 200,656 533,726
Nov-23 3,787 3,800 3,754 3,764 3,788 3,778 -10 55,590 69,866
Dec-23 3,764 3,765 3,718 3,734 3,753 3,746 -7 19,786 26,230
Jan-24 3,683 3,699 3,656 3,666 3,686 3,676 -10 24,514 53,118
Palm Oil
Turnover: 818,543 lots, or 63.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 7,800 7,800 7,206 7,790 7,842 8,066 224 846 0
Apr-23 7,760 7,808 7,646 7,754 7,896 7,762 -134 16,913 28,094
May-23 7,672 7,828 7,656 7,738 7,900 7,764 -136 667,748 456,087
Jun-23 7,766 7,802 7,640 7,720 7,884 7,752 -132 22,217 94,014
Jul-23 7,686 7,756 7,514 7,664 7,836 7,706 -130 15,106 71,053
Aug-23 7,658 7,720 7,570 7,626 7,794 7,670 -124 12,989 45,117
Sep-23 7,660 7,688 7,536 7,590 7,744 7,624 -120 66,366 98,010
Oct-23 7,630 7,662 7,514 7,562 7,722 7,604 -118 13,057 24,490
Nov-23 7,606 7,630 7,490 7,530 7,690 7,576 -114 2,829 9,184
Dec-23 7,504 7,588 7,500 7,530 7,654 7,524 -130 13 101
Jan-24 7,646 7,646 7,474 7,506 7,652 7,532 -120 454 906
Feb-24 7,572 7,572 7,526 7,550 7,696 7,550 -146 5 88
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 731,072 lots, or 61.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 9,128 9,120 9,128 8 0 0
May-23 8,450 8,486 8,322 8,370 8,554 8,414 -140 595,024 415,463
Jul-23 8,388 8,474 8,326 8,356 8,544 8,408 -136 18,426 93,392
Aug-23 8,348 8,446 8,308 8,336 8,522 8,390 -132 6,590 62,443
Sep-23 8,350 8,400 8,260 8,292 8,476 8,336 -140 84,917 147,680
Nov-23 8,352 8,358 8,240 8,268 8,440 8,306 -134 10,368 38,484
Dec-23 8,378 8,378 8,238 8,282 8,440 8,322 -118 12,708 21,775
Jan-24 8,376 8,376 8,226 8,260 8,416 8,286 -130 3,039 5,627
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322