About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and has now broken down in a convincing way from a sideways trading pattern established last November on follow through selling tied to the WASDE reports and on disappointing weekly export sales. The reports were negative to prices as USDA left US demand alone and raised world ending stocks. Demand ideas are improving. Demand was very strong in the report the previous week and has been ramping up for the last couple of months, but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.79 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,697 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 77.70, 77.60, and 71.70 May. Support is at 77.90, 75.40, and 74.80 May, with resistance of 78.80, 80.20 and 86.90 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and remains supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. The market tone is mixed as USDA slightly raised Florida Oranges production estimates to 16.1 million boxes from 16.0 million in its previous estimate and more than 60% below the production from last year. The crop is still very short but the size of the crop could be factored into the price now. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US. The Florida Dept of Citrus reported that inventories are still 38.5% below last year. Nielsen said that Orange Juice retail prices hit a new high in the US. This is the fifth consecutive month of new highs reported and the highest price reported since at least 2001. The current price is now 8.85/gallon, up 14% from last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 240.00, 219.00, and 217.00 May, with resistance at 240.00, 244.00, and 246.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little higher and London closed a little lower last week. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the rally has increased offers. However, CECAFE showed that Brazil exports were just 2.4 million bags in February, down one third from a year ago. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.771 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 171.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 624 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 174.00, 171.00, and 170.00 May, and resistance is at 178.00, 183.00 and 185.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3300 and 3360 May. Support is at 2160, 2130, and 2110 May, and resistance is at 2210, 2240, and 2270 May.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/07/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
115,526 46,890 72,322 1,862 4,708 2,000
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 40.6% 62.6% 1.6% 4.1% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 40 38 6 9 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,795 8,434 6,939 5,323 2,565 14,626
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
26.7% 7.3% 6.0% 4.6% 2.2% 12.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 12 15 13 11 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,091 3,932
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.1% 3.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher as Indian production remains a concern. Indian production is thought to be 33 million tons this year or less and the market has had to ration that supply via price. Thailand mills are closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be over rated and Brazil production is solid this year. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Center-south mills crushed 72,000 metric tons of cane in the period, down 55% from the same time last year, Unica said Friday. The mills produced 381 tons of sugar and 154.7 million liters of ethanol. The production mix for the second half of February was 4.8% sugar to 95.2% ethanol, compared with 100% ethanol in the same period last year. In the period from April 1 through Feb. 28, mills in the region crushed 542.5 million tons of cane, up 3.8% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 4.5% to 33.5 million tons, and ethanol output climbed 3.7% to 28.2 billion liters. The production mix for the season through Feb. 28 was 45.9% sugar to 54.1% ethanol, compared with 45% sugar and 55% ethanol in the same period a year earlier. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south has seen drier weather. There is concern that the rainy areas will stay too wet and delay the harvest and dilute the Sugar concentrations in the cane in central areas. European production is expected to be reduced again this year, with French planted area likely to decline to a 14 year low for Sugarbeets. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2160 and 2270 May. Support is at 2060, 2040, and 2010 May and resistance is at 2130, 2160, and 2190 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 601.00 May. Support is at 582.00, 574.00, and 566.00 May and resistance is at 595.00, 603.00, and 609.00 May.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/07/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
89,645 29,527 65,352 7,471 4,665 1,812
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 32.9% 72.9% 8.3% 5.2% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
119 33 33 8 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,951 2,945 4,404 1,976 1,898 4,644
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
36.8% 3.3% 4.9% 2.2% 2.1% 5.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
41 9 15 6 8 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,860 3,925
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.7% 4.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week even as West African exporters are not offering. Wire reports said that a lot of Ivory Coast Cocoa is getting smuggled to other countries for export due to higher prices being paid. Trends are down in both New York and London. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Those ideas changed a little over the previous weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. The Ivory Coast Cocoa grind was 58,452 tons in February, 16% higher than last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.050 million bags. ICE NY said that there were 0 notices posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 615 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2620 and 2500 May. Support is at 2660, 2630, and 2620 May, with resistance at 2740, 2790, and 2810 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2010 and 1940 May. Support is at 2030, 2000, and 1980 May, with resistance at 2080, 2110, and 2130 May.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/07/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
368,824 135,185 256,276 29,809 21,128 24,395
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 36.7% 69.5% 8.1% 5.7% 6.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
168 40 42 17 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
=============================================================================== \
101,584 8,998 19,942 18,270 1,227 34,549
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
27.5% 2.4% 5.4% 5.0% 0.3% 9.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
50 11 23 20 11 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,090 2,309
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322