Grains Report 03/13/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 14, 2023 20 Mar 09, 2023
CORN March Mar 14, 2023 8 Feb 28, 2023
SOYBEAN March Mar 14, 2023 50 Feb 28, 2023
WHEAT March Mar 14, 2023 33 Mar 09, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower last week in trading in response to the WASDE reports and on reports that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand but did cut world ending stocks levels. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 661, 656, and 650 May, with resistance at 702, 709, and 722 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 715 May. Support is at 773, 770, and 764 May, with resistance at 805, 815, and 832 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 814, 808, and 802 March, and resistance is at 853, 860, and 869 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was narrowly sharply lower again last week. Trends are down on the charts. The USDA WASDE reports showed reduced export demand but this was already factored into the price structure as the selling had come before the release of the reports. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1561 May. Support is at 1625, 1620, and 1608 May and resistance is at 1666, 1694, and 1714.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week on selling tied to the release of the WASDE reports and on forecasts for good weather conditions for the growing season in the US. Oats were higher. USDA left the supply side unchanged in its WASDE reports for the US but cut export demand and also increased US and world ending stocks levels. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 593 May. Support is at 606, 603, and 600 May, and resistance is at 622, 630, and 634 May. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 342, 338, and 333 May, and resistance is at 353, 358, and 361 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower last week on selling tied to the response to the release of the WASDE reports that showed reduced domestic demand but much more export demand. Selling also came from ideas of increased Brazil offers into the world market and reduced US export demand. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Argentine production was cut but Brazil production was not and the Brazil crop is coming to export channels and that is bearish to US prices. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels now. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1498, 1489, and 1478 May, and resistance is at 1513, 1538, and 1549 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 506.00 and 529.00 May . Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 466.00 May, and resistance is at 487.00, 498.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5570 May. Support is at 5510, 5390, and 5280 May, with resistance at 5820, 5850, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week on demand concerns and despite ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China. The market was lower today along with weakness in Chicago. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was lower on price action in Chicago and on demand concerns as ideas that Brazil will capture demand for the world market. Brazil is expected t dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Soybean and Palm Oil were lower as was European Rapeseed. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 764.00, 768.00, and 752.00 May, with resistance at 709.00, 803.00, and 817.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 4000 and 3860 May. Support is at 4090, 4020, and 3970 May, with resistance at 4140, 4240, and 4270 May,

DJ Malaysia March 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Up 50.8%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the March 1-10 period are estimated up 50.8% on month at 487,530 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
March 1-10 February 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 183,840 103,020
RBD Palm Oil 16,825 13,500
RBD Palm Stearin 57,528 1,050
Crude Palm Oil 67,262 60,050
Total* 487,530 323,280
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
91 May
180 May
120 May
111 May

April
93 May
180 May
120 May
108 May

May
89 May
180 May 115 May
100 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for March 9, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 808.10 0.00 May 23 dn 4.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 822.30 30.00 May 23 dn 15.80
Basis: Vancouver 857.30 65.00 May 23 dn 15.80
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 977.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 970.00 – Unquoted – –
May/Jun 947.50 – Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 925.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 987.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 980.00 – Unquoted – –
May/Jun 957.50 – Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 935.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 940.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 730.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4250.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 247.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.492)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 105,097 lots, or 5.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 5,550 5,550 5,550 0 0 174
May-23 5,571 5,578 5,528 5,551 5,583 5,556 -27 81,911 124,317
Jul-23 5,489 5,500 5,469 5,480 5,507 5,485 -22 15,232 61,182
Sep-23 5,458 5,462 5,439 5,447 5,471 5,450 -21 853 6,675
Nov-23 5,417 5,436 5,406 5,415 5,439 5,420 -19 7,053 28,871
Jan-24 5,387 5,401 5,385 5,397 5,417 5,392 -25 48 367
Corn
Turnover: 520,388 lots, or 14.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,788 2,788 2,788 2,788 2,797 2,788 -9 1 7
May-23 2,846 2,850 2,824 2,835 2,849 2,835 -14 291,285 650,706
Jul-23 2,844 2,848 2,824 2,832 2,847 2,833 -14 139,132 586,948
Sep-23 2,820 2,821 2,796 2,804 2,820 2,805 -15 23,931 126,420
Nov-23 2,749 2,749 2,725 2,733 2,749 2,733 -16 62,872 244,337
Jan-24 2,738 2,738 2,714 2,722 2,735 2,720 -15 3,167 10,422
Soymeal
Turnover: 903,457 lots, or 34.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 3,915 3,955 3,913 3,940 3,952 3,942 -10 98 11,884
May-23 3,789 3,817 3,765 3,809 3,819 3,792 -27 600,431 1,156,233
Jul-23 3,788 3,805 3,757 3,801 3,810 3,784 -26 32,492 222,510
Aug-23 3,838 3,854 3,810 3,849 3,865 3,833 -32 33,938 143,950
Sep-23 3,822 3,838 3,791 3,834 3,846 3,817 -29 166,131 530,778
Nov-23 3,772 3,807 3,765 3,807 3,819 3,788 -31 32,985 68,937
Dec-23 3,750 3,775 3,732 3,775 3,780 3,753 -27 16,054 26,263
Jan-24 3,695 3,708 3,665 3,708 3,712 3,686 -26 21,328 54,475
Palm Oil
Turnover: 727,948 lots, or 57.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 7,842 7,872 7,842 -30 0 2,967
Apr-23 7,920 7,954 7,820 7,866 7,982 7,896 -86 9,814 34,208
May-23 7,908 7,962 7,828 7,872 7,988 7,900 -88 599,571 467,428
Jun-23 7,892 7,958 7,810 7,856 7,968 7,884 -84 14,434 93,487
Jul-23 7,884 7,898 7,770 7,808 7,932 7,836 -96 13,461 70,648
Aug-23 7,790 7,858 7,732 7,768 7,864 7,794 -70 12,594 43,814
Sep-23 7,758 7,796 7,690 7,730 7,822 7,744 -78 65,661 94,176
Oct-23 7,728 7,766 7,666 7,710 7,808 7,722 -86 9,754 24,116
Nov-23 7,688 7,728 7,634 7,686 7,756 7,690 -66 2,398 8,661
Dec-23 7,664 7,686 7,602 7,680 7,758 7,654 -104 9 97
Jan-24 7,632 7,690 7,608 7,646 7,718 7,652 -66 252 915
Feb-24 – – – 7,696 7,696 7,696 0 0 85
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 565,044 lots, or 48.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 9,120 9,120 9,120 9,120 9,298 9,120 -178 142 472
May-23 8,556 8,604 8,508 8,544 8,660 8,554 -106 448,991 434,512
Jul-23 8,578 8,588 8,498 8,536 8,650 8,544 -106 14,345 92,268
Aug-23 8,534 8,560 8,480 8,514 8,630 8,522 -108 7,200 62,115
Sep-23 8,496 8,520 8,428 8,466 8,576 8,476 -100 78,381 139,286
Nov-23 8,454 8,476 8,400 8,438 8,532 8,440 -92 5,648 37,612
Dec-23 8,446 8,480 8,410 8,456 8,546 8,440 -106 8,725 20,371
Jan-24 8,418 8,460 8,384 8,416 8,496 8,416 -80 1,612 4,584
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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