Softs Report 03/09/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday in response to the WASDE reports. The reports were negative to prices as USDA left US demand alone and raised world ending stocks. Demand ideas are improving. Demand was very strong in the report the previous week and has been ramping up for the last couple of months, but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons. The charts show that futures held at a test of the lows formed since November but are still ion a range.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.23 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,147 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 87.70, 87.60, and 71.70 May. Support is at 80.90, 80.50, and 80.10 May, with resistance of 83.80, 85.40 and 86.20 May.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Item Feb Mar
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 12.09 11.22 13.76 13.76
Harvested 8.22 10.27 7.44 7.44
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 853 819 947 947
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 7.25 3.15 3.75 3.75
Production 14.61 17.52 14.68 14.68
Imports 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 21.86 20.68 18.44 18.44
Domestic Use 2.40 2.55 2.10 2.10
Exports, Total 16.35 14.62 12.00 12.00
Use, Total 18.75 17.17 14.10 14.10
Unaccounted 2/ -0.04 -0.24 0.04 0.04
Ending Stocks 3.15 3.75 4.30 4.30
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 66.3 91.4 83.0 83.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 634 – 18 March 2023

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2022/23 Proj.
World
Feb 85.24 114.37 40.44 110.66 40.38 -0.08 89.08
Mar 86.11 115.09 39.58 110.11 39.60 -0.07 91.15
World Less China
Feb 47.92 85.87 32.69 74.66 40.26 -0.08 51.64
Mar 47.55 85.59 32.08 74.11 39.47 -0.07 51.71
United States
Feb 3.75 14.68 0.01 2.10 12.00 0.04 4.30
Mar 3.75 14.68 0.01 2.10 12.00 0.04 4.30
Total Foreign
Feb 81.49 99.69 40.44 108.56 28.38 -0.12 84.78
Mar 82.36 100.41 39.57 108.01 27.60 -0.11 86.85
Major Exporters 4/
Feb 32.04 56.03 2.32 31.08 24.25 -0.17 35.23
Mar 31.68 55.70 2.31 31.23 23.46 -0.17 35.16
Major Importers 8/
Feb 46.75 40.38 35.84 73.40 2.86 0.06 46.66
Mar 48.00 41.43 34.94 72.70 2.86 0.07 48.75
================================================================================
WASDE – 634 – 28 March 2023

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday as USDA slightly raised Florida Oranges production estimates. The crop is still very short but thef size of the crop could be factored into the price now. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US. The Florida Dept of Citrus reported that inventories are still 40.0% below last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 219.00, 217.00, and 215.00 May, with resistance at 236.00, 240.00, and 244.00 May.

Orange Production Up Slightly from February Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2022-2023 season is
2.62 million tons, up slightly from the previous forecast but down 25 percent
from the 2021- 2022 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
16.1 million boxes (725,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast
but down 61 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, early,
midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.10 million boxes
(275,000 tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 67 percent
from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast,
at 10.0 million boxes (450,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast
but down 56 percent from last season’s final utilization.
The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.10 million boxes (324,000 tons),
unchanged from previous forecast but down 6 percent from the previous season.
This results in a California all orange forecast of 46.1 million boxes
(1.84 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 14 percent
from last season’s final utilization. The forecast for Texas is carried
forward from the previous forecast.
This report was approved on March 8, 2023.

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2021-2022 and
Forecasted March 1, 2023
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest
the following year]
——————————————————————————————————
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :——————————————————————-
: 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023
————————————————————————————————–
: —— 1,000 boxes —– —— 1,000 tons —–
Oranges :
California, all …………..: 40,400 46,100 1,616 1,844
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 31,800 38,000 1,272 1,520
Valencia ………………..: 8,600 8,100 344 324
Florida, all ……………..: 41,050 16,100 1,847 725
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ….: 18,250 6,100 821 275
Valencia ………………..: 22,800 10,000 1,026 450
Texas, all 2/ …………….: 200 1,150 8 49
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ….: 170 900 7 38
Valencia ………………..: 30 250 1 11
United States, all ………..: 81,650 63,350 3,471 2,618
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ….: 50,220 45,000 2,100 1,833
Valencia ………………..: 31,430 18,350 1,371 785

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Mar 9
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
2/11/2023 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
2/11/2023 2/12/2022 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 95.36 163.03 -41.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.51 6.72 -3.1%
Total 101.87 169.75 -40.0%
Pack
Bulk 0.72 3.63 -80.2%
Retail/Institutional 0.68 1.27 -46.4%
Total Pack 1.40 4.90 -71.5%
Reprocessed -1.38 -3.15 -56.2%
Pack from Fruit 0.02 1.75 -98.9%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.00 -0.21 -99.4%
Imports – Foreign 5.54 7.23 -23.5%
Domestic Receipts 0.13 0.03 298.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.34 0.04 865.4%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.11 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 100.70 170.72 -41.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 7.99 -10.0%
Total 107.90 178.71 -39.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.16 5.39 -41.3%
Exports 0.00 0.73 -100.0%
Total (Bulk) 3.16 6.12 -48.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.87 0.96 -8.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.87 0.96 -8.9%
Total Movement 4.04 7.07 -42.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 97.54 164.60 -40.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.32 7.03 -10.1%
Ending Inventory 103.86 171.64 -39.5%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
11-Feb-23 12-Feb-22 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 119.13 226.65 -47.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.60 6.08 8.6%
Total 125.74 232.73 -46.0%
Pack
Bulk 14.23 34.20 -58.4%
Retail/Institutional 20.84 22.25 -6.3%
Total Pack 35.07 56.45 -37.9%
Reprocessed -33.68 -46.43 -27.5%
Pack from Fruit 1.39 10.02 -86.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.03 -0.55 -94.7%
Imports – Foreign 70.53 35.58 98.2%
Domestic Receipts 3.36 2.21 52.0%
Receipts of Florida Produ
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.50 0.88 297.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.10 0.02 377.8%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.23 1.55 -85.1%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 177.43 254.12 -30.2%
Retail/Institutional 27.44 28.33 -3.1%
Total 204.87 282.45 -27.5%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 78.90 81.79 -3.5%
Domestic 0.99 7.73 -87.2%
Exports 79.89 89.52 -10.8%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 21.12 21.30 -0.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 21.12 21.30 -0.8%
Total Movement 101.01 110.81 -8.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 97.54 164.60 -40.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.32 7.03 -10.1%
Ending Inventory 103.86 171.64 -39.5%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the rally has increased offers. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.767 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 174.83 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 620 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 175.00, 174.00, and 171.00 May, and resistance is at 183.00, 185.00 and 190.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3300 and 3360 May. Support is at 2110, 2090, and 2070 May, and resistance is at 2170, 2190, and 2210 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower on wsome speculative profit taking as Indian production remains a concern. Indian production is thought to be 33 million tons this year or less and the market has had to ration that supply via price. Thailand expects to export 7% more than last year and Brazil production is slid this year. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south has seen drier weather. There is concern that the rainy areas will stay too wet and delay the harvest and dilute the Sugar concentrations in the cane in central areas. European production is expected to be reduced again this year, with French planted area likely to decline to a 14 year low for Sugarbeets.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2160 and 2270 May. Support is at 2060, 2040, and 2010 May and resistance is at 2120, 2140, and 2170 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 601.00 May. Support is at 574.00, 566.00, and 561.00 May and resistance is at 591.00, 597.00, and 603.00 May.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Item Feb Mar
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1618 1705 1820 1820
Production 2/ 9233 9157 9231 9310
Beet Sugar 5092 5155 5100 5160
Cane Sugar 4141 4002 4131 4150
Florida 2090 1934 2014 2040
Louisiana 1918 1944 2030 2034
Texas 134 124 87 76
Imports 3221 3646 3463 3330
TRQ 3/ 1749 1579 1611 1618
Other Program 4/ 292 298 250 250
Non-program 1180 1769 1602 1462
Mexico 968 1379 1477 1306
High-tier tariff/other 212 390 125 156
Total Supply 14072 14508 14514 14460
Exports 49 29 35 35
Deliveries 12277 12578 12605 12705
Food 12161 12470 12500 12600
Other 5/ 116 107 105 105
Miscellaneous 40 81 0 0
Total Use 12367 12688 12640 12740
Ending Stocks 1705 1820 1874 1720
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.8 14.3 14.8 13.5
================================================================================

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

Sugar
2021/22 Est.
Feb 1053 6185 31 4629 1676 964
Mar 1053 6185 31 4629 1676 964
2022/23 Proj.
Feb 964 5900 35 4660 1268 971
Mar 964 5485 35 4438 1121 925
================================================================================
WASDE – 634 – 17 March 2023

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2021 and 2022
—————————————————————————————-
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
State :——————————————————————-
: 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022
—————————————————————————————-
: — 1,000 acres — —– tons —– — 1,000 tons —
For sugar :
Florida …………: 388.0 386.0 42.4 44.5 16,451 17,177
Louisiana ……….: 466.0 474.0 29.0 32.1 13,514 15,215
Texas …………..: 34.3 30.9 30.8 22.6 1,056 698
United States ……: 888.3 890.9 34.9 37.1 31,021 33,090
For seed :
Florida …………: 15.5 15.9 47.5 47.4 736 754
Louisiana ……….: 29.3 23.1 34.5 35.5 1,011 820
Texas …………..: 2.1 0.3 33.5 24.6 70 7
United States ……: 46.9 39.3 38.7 40.2 1,817 1,581
For sugar and seed :
Florida …………: 403.5 401.9 42.6 44.6 17,187 17,931
Louisiana ……….: 495.3 497.1 29.3 32.3 14,525 16,035
Texas …………..: 36.4 31.2 30.9 22.6 1,126 705
United States ……: 935.2 930.2 35.1 37.3 32,838 34,671
—————————————————————————————-
1/ Net tons.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as West African exporters are not offering. Wire reports said that a lot of Ivory Coast Cocoa is getting smuggled to other countries for export due to higher prices being paid. Trends are up in both New York and London. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Those ideas changed a little over the weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 5.054 million bags. ICE NY said that there were 0 notices posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 615 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2620 and 2500 May. Support is at 2700, 2660, and 2630 May, with resistance at 2790, 2810, and 2840 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 May, with resistance at 2150, 2170, and 2200 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322