Daniel Flynn
Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
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Dr. Doom Crashed the Grain Party. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/09/2023
We kickoff the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:00 A.M., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average and Continuing Jobless Claims at 7:30 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M. (analysts forecast an 80 bcf decline), 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M.
On Corn Front the USDA showed a build on corn ending stocks which is showing a lack of purchase orders to export. World ending stocks were higher by 1.118 mmt vs. February while Brazil came in unchanged vs. February and Argentina 7 mmt less than February, and could even margin out larger as thins look bleak Argentina faces their worst drought in 60 years, and raises another questionable wildcard is Ukraine exports. E will be also monitoring Brazil’s 2nd corn crop as we inch ever so closer to planting season in the U.S. I do anticipate some acreage surprises in the Prospective Plantings data due to Renewable Fuels demand with biodiesel and ethanol. The soybeans traded higher off the data but fizzled out after Fed Chair Jerome Powell cast doubts in trader’s minds. With these factors in mind the export market could and should pick up and the buyers will be dancing to our tune. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 629 which is 3 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 629 ¾ to 624.
On the Ethanol Front the EIA reported US ethanol production edges up while blending demand eases. The information regarding domestic ethanol through March 3 showed production climbed 0.7% while ethanol blender inputs edged slightly, maintaining a recent up/down pattern. Total ethanol production gained 7,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.010bpd last week, 1.6% below the same week in 2022. Data show ethanol blending activity in the U.S. a measure of demand slipped 3,000 bpd through March 3 to 870,000 bpd 2.9% below the same week in 2022. Four-week average blender inputs were 868,000 bpd, 1,000 bpd below last year. The EIA data also showed overall domestic ethanol inventory rose 545,000 barrels (BBL) to 25.320 million bbl 0.4% below this time last year. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374