Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Softs Report 03/08/2023
DJ U.S. January Coffee, Cocoa Imports-March 8
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jan 2023—- —-Dec 2022—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 107,746,370 237,580,746 106,793,830 235,480,395
coffee, roasted 8,717,382 19,221,827 8,324,994 18,356,612
instant 5,408,016 11,924,675 6,295,768 13,882,168
cocoa beans 46,866,919 103,341,556 10,017,758 22,089,156
10 lbs or over 2,032,602 4,481,887 2,352,012 5,186,186
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 11,474,418 25,301,092 13,043,130 28,760,102
not defatted 8,409,519 18,542,989 5,817,851 12,828,361
defatted 9,033,156 19,918,109 4,525,541 9,978,818
unsweetened 9,757,864 21,516,090 6,073,623 13,392,339
sweetened 33,881 74,708 41,693 91,933
coating 5,527,308 12,187,714 4,784,520 10,549,867
chocolate 10,007,964 22,067,561 12,203,044 26,907,712
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on trading seen in front of the next round of WASDE reports. Demand ideas are improving. Demand was very strong in the report the previous week and has been ramping up for the last couple of months, but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons. The charts show that futures held at a test of the lows formed since November but are still ion a range.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.38 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,147 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.40, 80.90, and 80.50 May, with resistance of 85.40, 86.20 and 86.90 May.
2022-23: Avg Low High Feb. Avg vs Prior
US Production 14.66 14.50 14.85 14.68 -0.021
US Exports 12.05 11.80 12.30 12.00 0.050
US End Stocks 4.26 4.05 4.50 4.30 -0.039
World Production 114.22 113.50 114.80 114.37 -0.149
World Consumption 110.54 110.00 111.00 110.66 -0.117
World End Stocks 89.07 88.37 90.00 89.08 -0.013
DJ U.S. Jan Cotton Exports-Mar 8
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jan 23 Dec 22 Nov 22 Jan 22
Upland, under 1 inch 3,732,872 2,638,733 3,272,164 7,284,731
1 to 1 1/8 inch 74,335,898 47,190,157 62,024,752 96,005,228
upland 1 1/8 and over 5,688,678 4,102,525 3,191,965 6,288,104
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 130,708,954 94,548,196 97,532,862 196,595,612
All cotton 214,466,402 148,479,611 166,021,743 306,173,675
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jan 23 Dec 22 Nov 22 Jan 22
Upland, under 1 inch 17,145 12,120 15,029 33,458
1 to 1 1/8 inch 341,422 216,743 284,877 440,948
upland 1 1/8 and over 26,128 18,843 14,661 28,881
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 600,341 434,256 447,965 902,956
All cotton 985,036 681,961 762,532 1,406,244
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US. The Florida Dept of Citrus reported that inventories are still 40.0% below last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 231.00, 227.00, and 219.00 May, with resistance at 250.00, 257.00, and 263.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed mixed. Higher differentials in Brazil and Vietnam caused by a lack of offers from producers in both countries remain a feature of the market. However, differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the rally has increased offers. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.763 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 174.83 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 620 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 177.00, 176.00, and 174.00 May, and resistance is at 185.00, 190.00 and 197.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3300 and 3360 May. Support is at 2140, 2110, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2190, 2210, and 2240 May.
General Comments: New York closed mostly a little lower and London closed higher yesterday as Indian production remains a concern. Indian production is thought to be 33 million tons this year or less and the market has had to ration that supply via price. Thailand expects to export 7% more than last year and Brazil production is slid this year. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south has seen drier weather. There is concern that the rainy areas will stay too wet and delay the harvest and dilute the Sugar concentrations in the cane in central areas. European production is expected to be reduced again this year, with French planted area likely to decline to a 14 year low for Sugarbeets.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2160 and 2270 May. Support is at 2090, 2060, and 2040 May and resistance is at 2140, 2170, and 2200 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 601.00 May. Support is at 574.00, 566.00, and 561.00 May and resistance is at 591.00, 597.00, and 603.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher in currency trading and as West African exporters are not offering. Wire reports said that a lot of Ivory Coast Cocoa is getting smuggled to other countries for export due to higher prices being paid. Trends are up in both New York and London. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Those ideas changed a little over the weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.054 million bags. ICE NY said that there were 0 notices posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 615 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2660 May, with resistance at 2810, 2840, and 2900 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 May, with resistance at 2150, 2170, and 2200 May.
\Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322