Grains Report 03/07/2023

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Wednesday.
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2022-23
Average Range USDA February USDA 2021-2022
Corn 1,299 1,137-1,360 1,267 1,377
Soybeans 219 200-250 225 274
Wheat 576 557-612 568 698
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Average Range USDA February USDA 2021-22
Corn 293.7 291.0-297.0 295.3 306.3
Soybeans 100.1 96.5-102.0 102.0 98.8
Wheat 269.9 268.0-272.0 269.3 276.7
***
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2022-23
Average Range USDA February USDA 2021-22
Corn 125.0 123.0-130.6 125.0 116.0
Soybeans 153.0 151.0-154.7 153.0 129.5
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2022-23
Average Range USDA February USDA 2021-22
Corn 43.2 41.0-46.0 47.0 49.5
Soybeans 36.3 33.0-40.0 41.0 43.9

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 6
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Mar 6, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 02, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/02/2023 02/23/2023 03/03/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,010
CORN 899,810 649,303 1,582,167 15,284,666 24,787,162
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 72,114 105,710 205,016 747,268 3,226,096
SOYBEANS 542,238 765,215 771,956 42,700,611 41,480,680
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,160 432
WHEAT 268,136 653,283 403,187 15,581,932 15,913,403
Total 1,782,298 2,173,511 2,962,326 74,325,477 85,418,507
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 08, 2023 66 Mar 03, 2023
CORN March Mar 08, 2023 38 Feb 27, 2023
SOYBEAN March Mar 08, 2023 7 Feb 27, 2023
WHEAT March Mar 08, 2023 15 Mar 06, 2023
MINI-SIZED WHEAT March Mar 08, 2023 65 Feb 27, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on more reports that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives, Support is at 692, 685, and 668 May, with resistance at 709, 722, and 738 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 794, 788, and 782 May, with resistance at 815, 832, and 837 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 860, 857, and 850 March, and resistance is at 880, 887, and 892 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower and closed near the bottom of the recent trading range on weak export sales. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1689, 1683, and 1670 May and resistance is at 1714, 1724, and 1742

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday and continued to test low levels not seen since late last year on ideas of weak demand. Oats closed lower and at new lows for the move. The export inspections report released Monday afternoon showed solid exports but the US remains far behind the pace to meet USDA targets. The lack of demand has been a reason for all the selling in the last week. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Japan and unknown destinations were buyers in the daily system yesterday. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. . The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is much improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 630, 622, and 615 May, and resistance is at 645, 648, and 652 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 312 May. Support is at 322, 316, and 320 May, and resistance is at 328, 334, and 338 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the Soybean Meal were higher last week on speculative buying tied to the South American weather outlook and despite a weak export sales report that showed Soybeans sales at a marketing year low. Soybean Oil closed lower. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels in the near future. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed . Support is at 1525, 1508, and 1498 May, and resistance is at 1538, 1549, and 1560 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 506.00 and 529.00 May . Support is at 488.00, 483.00, and 476.00 May, and resistance is at 496.00, 499.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5970, 5900, and 5870 May, with resistance at 6220, 6240, and 6380 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on some profit taking, but ideas are that prices can remain elevated due t bad weather in Malaysia and the potential for increased demand from India and especially China. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was mixed with nearby months a little lower on demand concerns as ideas that Brazil will capture demand for the world market. Brazil is expected t dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Soyban and Palm Oil were a little lower as was European Rapeseed. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 816.00, 811.00, and 803.00 May, with resistance at 829.00, 835.00, and 836.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 4260, 4220, and 4130 May, with resistance at 4420, 4440, and 4620 May,

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

March
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

April
89 May
1790 May
120 May
110 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 6
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for March 6, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 822.50 0.00 May 23 dn 2.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 851.80 30.00 May 23 dn 0.70
Basis: Vancouver 886.80 65.00 May 23 dn 0.70
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 990.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 960.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 1000.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1000.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 970.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 970.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 750.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4280.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
4Mar 249.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4745)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 96,266 lots, or 5.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 5,490 5,507 5,490 -17 0 1,469
May-23 5,498 5,504 5,469 5,473 5,520 5,486 -34 73,725 145,453
Jul-23 5,433 5,438 5,412 5,418 5,451 5,426 -25 15,197 59,586
Sep-23 5,396 5,408 5,373 5,392 5,421 5,395 -26 1,435 6,944
Nov-23 5,371 5,384 5,360 5,368 5,391 5,375 -16 5,854 26,196
Jan-24 5,353 5,366 5,348 5,351 5,370 5,357 -13 55 480
Corn
Turnover: 428,511 lots, or 12.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,811 2,822 2,811 2,821 2,809 2,820 11 889 1,504
May-23 2,824 2,856 2,824 2,847 2,839 2,841 2 252,973 655,879
Jul-23 2,829 2,856 2,829 2,848 2,842 2,842 0 102,711 573,639
Sep-23 2,804 2,820 2,799 2,816 2,807 2,811 4 21,509 109,848
Nov-23 2,734 2,753 2,733 2,746 2,742 2,744 2 48,547 237,759
Jan-24 2,720 2,740 2,720 2,735 2,725 2,733 8 1,882 9,004
Soymeal
Turnover: 926,300 lots, or 35.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 3,940 3,989 3,940 3,972 3,959 3,970 11 243 11,887
May-23 3,782 3,831 3,776 3,806 3,777 3,807 30 622,984 1,215,890
Jul-23 3,766 3,821 3,766 3,800 3,768 3,796 28 23,041 217,928
Aug-23 3,820 3,869 3,820 3,855 3,819 3,846 27 37,278 142,644
Sep-23 3,805 3,855 3,801 3,835 3,803 3,836 33 172,569 495,673
Nov-23 3,777 3,821 3,771 3,816 3,774 3,802 28 29,761 70,255
Dec-23 3,755 3,782 3,731 3,777 3,752 3,764 12 16,500 27,495
Jan-24 3,700 3,722 3,689 3,709 3,696 3,710 14 23,924 47,037
Palm Oil
Turnover: 617,537 lots, or 50.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 8,300 8,310 8,300 -10 0 2,967
Apr-23 8,254 8,266 8,190 8,202 8,336 8,232 -104 22,797 53,668
May-23 8,244 8,262 8,180 8,202 8,328 8,222 -106 505,941 471,361
Jun-23 8,232 8,234 8,160 8,180 8,298 8,198 -100 14,258 88,671
Jul-23 8,200 8,200 8,120 8,136 8,246 8,160 -86 11,227 61,245
Aug-23 8,132 8,142 8,082 8,090 8,192 8,116 -76 9,526 39,494
Sep-23 8,072 8,100 8,036 8,040 8,134 8,070 -64 42,692 68,718
Oct-23 8,026 8,062 8,002 8,012 8,112 8,034 -78 8,939 19,988
Nov-23 7,976 8,026 7,966 7,970 8,060 7,992 -68 2,005 5,185
Dec-23 7,958 7,958 7,950 7,950 8,026 7,952 -74 3 84
Jan-24 7,954 7,972 7,910 7,922 7,994 7,942 -52 148 622
Feb-24 7,930 7,930 7,930 7,930 7,976 7,930 -46 1 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 418,437 lots, or 37.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 9,432 9,440 9,432 -8 0 472
May-23 8,864 8,900 8,854 8,882 8,974 8,874 -100 359,085 476,053
Jul-23 8,852 8,858 8,816 8,834 8,930 8,834 -96 8,618 85,677
Aug-23 8,796 8,838 8,792 8,816 8,906 8,808 -98 4,318 57,630
Sep-23 8,768 8,788 8,736 8,768 8,848 8,764 -84 35,929 106,101
Nov-23 8,710 8,736 8,698 8,722 8,794 8,716 -78 4,843 36,473
Dec-23 8,700 8,732 8,688 8,722 8,780 8,710 -70 4,941 18,525
Jan-24 8,684 8,716 8,674 8,708 8,752 8,690 -62 703 3,290
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322