March Madness Is Upon Grain farmers & Traders. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/06/2023

We kickoff the day with Factory Orders MoM and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M.,

On the Corn Front the futures firmed up heading into the weekend. New crop prices were fractionally higher with the May corn posting a 9 ½ cents loss for the week. The latest CFTC data had corn specs at 202,018 net long and the commercials 399,749 contracts net short. Ukraine’s 23/24 spring season is underway, as the Ag Ministry reported 3,500 HA of spring grains were planted. Export data from the Ukraine had the season’s corn shipment at 18.8 MMT, with all grain exports trailing last year by 24.4%.Ahead of WASDE reports next week, analysts are looking for the USDA to trim 3.6 MMT off the Argentina corn crop, to 43.4 MMT on average. The full range expects at least a 1 MMT cut which as much as 6 MMT reduction. For Brazil, the average trade guess is a drop of output by 100 MT, but the range of estimates is between -3 MMT to -5 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept their corn output estimate at 41 MMT. Private firm Agroconsult estimates Brazil’s corn crop to total 128.5 MMT, which includes a 29.4 MMT 1^st crop and a 99.1 MMT. Datagro has their 2^nd crop estimate at 102.91 MMT. Unless we have major surprises in the March Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand and WADE reports I calculate sideways rangebound trade until the March 31^st Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 636 which is 3 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 640 ¼ to 634.

On the Ethanol Front the USDA’s weekly ethanol report quoted the week’s average regional ethanol prices from $ 2.02/gal in Nebraska to $2.18 in Illinois. DDGS were shown mostly lower with a $30/ton for the week before from $235 to $290 regionally. Corn for oil quotes ranged from 55 to 60 cents/lb this week, mostly 3 to 4 cents lower. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

 

Have A Great Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374