Grains Report 03/06/2023

DJ U.S. March Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
U.S. 2022-23 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2021-2022
Corn 1,299 1,137-1,360 1,267 1,377
Soybeans 219 200-250 225 274
Wheat 576 557-612 568 698
2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,292 200 579
Agrisource 1,317 215 568
Allendale 1,317 211 612
Doane 1,335 200 590
Futures Intl 1,292 225 568
Grain Cycles 1,292 225 568
Linn Group 1,137 235 583
Sid Love Consulting 1,292 225 568
Marex Group 1,317 225 568
Midland Research 1,317 210 568
Midwest Market Solutions 1,301 210 590
Northstar 1,300 210 568
Ocean State Research 1,317 250 593
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 1,360 215 568
RJ O’Brien 1,302 208 589
StoneX 1,302 236 557
US Commodities Inc. 1,285 230 572
Vantage RM 1,290 225 568
Zaner Ag 1,317 215 573

DJ March World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
World 2022-23 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Average Range USDA February USDA 2021-22
Corn 293.7 291.0-297.0 295.3 306.3
Soybeans 100.1 96.5-102.0 102.0 98.8
Wheat 269.9 268.0-272.0 269.3 276.7
2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 294.9 101.9 269.4
Allendale 294.7 101.4 271.3
Futures Intl 291.8 99.8 268.0
Grain Cycles 295.0 99.0 270.5
Linn Group 291.0 96.5 272.0
Marex Group 292.0 99.0 269.0
Midwest Market Solutions 292.3 99.9 270.0
Northstar 293.5 100.6 268.4
Ocean State Research 294.0 101.0 270.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc 296.0 102.0 270.5
StoneX 293.1 100.6 268.9
US Commodities Inc. 297.0 100.0 270.0
Zaner Ag 292.8 99.9 270.7

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Mar 3
Winnipeg–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended Feb. 26, 2023. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 3040.7 545.7 366.0 465.9 49.2 1177.8 326.3 271.4 6684.1
Week Ago 3063.6 652.9 359.3 509.9 49.8 1309.6 328.9 279.6 6987.2
Year Ago 2674.5 867.9 311.7 355.4 55.0 1427.9 383.1 280.8 6848.0
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 304.7 75.0 41.3 49.0 2.1 293.7 40.5 9.6 851.8
Week Ago 566.7 130.3 62.3 80.5 2.6 417.5 71.5 10.5 1390.7
To Date 14212.5 3528.5 1548.9 3205.7 89.7 11425.5 1962.9 252.1 38827.4
Year Ago 9414.8 1753.9 1288.0 2873.0 152.3 9763.5 1375.4 429.7 28812.5
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 389.0 104.6 9.2 61.4 – 182.6 37.3 59.8 883.0
Week Ago 305.7 73.0 2.1 86.2 – 158.9 36.0 50.4 766.9
To Date 13515.9 3598.2 180.9 1920.8 1.3 5747.7 1410.5 967.1 32392.6
Year Ago 8732.9 2056.4 155.3 1761.8 27.0 4462.8 797.6 753.1 23103.4
EXPORTS
This Week 396.2 137.3 19.5 73.4 0.6 194.7 17.7 63.5 925.8
Week Ago 312.0 105.6 24.1 135.0 0.4 190.8 90.8 – 951.1
To Date 11351.4 3202.1 812.1 2075.5 34.3 5085.0 1308.7 762.8 28638.8
Year Ago 6867.0 1458.2 760.5 1688.2 56.5 3799.4 761.4 584.9 19029.7
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 42.7 5.1 17.5 26.2 1.3 198.0 6.2 17.5 341.0
Week Ago 64.9 5.7 18.2 27.4 1.3 179.9 7.5 23.2 350.5
To Date 2506.9 367.9 510.0 928.0 45.6 5908.7 190.1 815.2 12588.7
Year Ago 2425.0 272.9 490.6 1090.5 38.7 5376.0 166.7 1409.2 12475.2
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 07, 2023 37 Mar 02, 2023
ROUGH RICE March Mar 07, 2023 2 Mar 02, 2023
CORN March Mar 07, 2023 1 Feb 27, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 07, 2023 45 Feb 22, 2023
SOYBEAN March Mar 07, 2023 24 Feb 27, 2023
WHEAT March Mar 07, 2023 109 Mar 03, 2023
MINI-SIZED WHEAT March Mar 07, 2023 15 Feb 27, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower last week. It is possible that Wheat is trying to find a bottom at this time. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 702, 692, and 680 May, with resistance at 732, 738, and 742 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 807, 800, and 794 May, with resistance at 832, 837, and 853 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 869, 860, and 857 March, and resistance is at 880, 887, and 892 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher in recovery trading and despite weak export sales as offers into the market appear less. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1724, 1714, and 1694 May and resistance is at 1762, 1773, and 1779

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower last week and tested low levels not seen since late las on ideas of weak demand. Oats closed lower and at new lows for the move. The export inspections report released last Monday afternoon showed bad exports once again and the US is falling far behind the pace to meet USDA targets. The export sales report released last Thursday showed weaker sales as well. The lack of demand has been a reason for all the selling in the last seven days. Wire reports yesterday showed that India is now making sales to Southeast Asia instead of the US. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. The situation is now more stable in southern Brazil and northern Argentina after recent rains, but the situation in central and southern Argentina remains stressed. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is much improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. China released its PMI data earlier this week and the PMI weas above expectations. It was considered positive for new demand potential from China.
Overnight News: Japan bought 110,000 tons of US Corn and unknown destinations bought 182,400 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 630, 622, and 615 May, and resistance is at 645, 648, and 652 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 327 and 312 May. Support is at 328, 325, and 322 May, and resistance is at 338, 342, and 345 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the Soybean Meal were slightly higher last week on speculative buying despite a weak export sales report that showed Soybeans sales at a marketing year low. Soybean Oil closed a little lower. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels in the near future and the lack of exports for the US has hurt the price action and created down trends for Soybeans and sideways to down trends for the products. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Sothern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting enough rain to stabilize conditions and production losses but central and southern Argentina remain very dry. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Chinese demand is improving in the world market and especially in Brazil with the country now open and many starting to move beyond Covid and create life and opportunity again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed . Support is at 1508, 1498, and 1489 May, and resistance is at 1530, 1532, and 1540 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed . Support is at 472.00, 466.00, and 465.00 May, and resistance is at 484.00, 485.00, and 487.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6220 May. Support is at 6090, 6050, and 5970 May, with resistance at 6220, 6240, and 6380 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher last week in response to Chinese PMI data that showed that the Chinese economy is recovering and implied that China could soon increase Palm Oil imports. Futures were also higher on reports of flooding in Malaysia that caused production concerns. The market closed lower today on what appeared to be speculative profit taking. China was a noted buyer of Palm Oil last week. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was higher last week on demand concerns as ideas that Brazil will capture demand for the world market. Brazil is expected t dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 816.00, 811.00, and 803.00 May, with resistance at 829.00, 835.00, and 836.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 4270, 4220, and 4130 May, with resistance at 4420, 4440, and 4620 May,

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain to the south. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

March
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

April
89 May
1790 May
120 May
110 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 825.30 0.00 May 2023 up 8.70
Track Thunder Bay 852.50 30.00 May 2023 dn 2.80
Track Vancouver 887.50 65.00 May 2023 dn 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 1005.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1000.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 980.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 1015.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1010.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 990.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 980.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4300.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
4Mar 252.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.476)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 78,588 lots, or 4.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,515 5,515 5,490 5,490 5,506 5,507 1 105 1,766
May-23 5,550 5,554 5,505 5,505 5,533 5,520 -13 62,749 151,524
Jul-23 5,480 5,482 5,433 5,434 5,460 5,451 -9 11,203 58,118
Sep-23 5,445 5,450 5,403 5,403 5,423 5,421 -2 1,050 6,669
Nov-23 5,409 5,412 5,380 5,383 5,396 5,391 -5 3,460 25,125
Jan-24 5,385 5,385 5,363 5,368 5,372 5,370 -2 21 443
Corn
Turnover: 620,425 lots, or 17.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,815 2,820 2,800 2,814 2,812 2,809 -3 1,454 4,634
May-23 2,838 2,860 2,823 2,824 2,842 2,839 -3 365,055 681,898
Jul-23 2,840 2,858 2,828 2,831 2,843 2,842 -1 162,119 574,734
Sep-23 2,805 2,820 2,799 2,804 2,808 2,807 -1 25,098 111,432
Nov-23 2,747 2,757 2,730 2,734 2,742 2,742 0 62,815 237,753
Jan-24 2,731 2,741 2,719 2,726 2,728 2,725 -3 3,884 9,571
Soymeal
Turnover: 672,539 lots, or 2.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 3,952 3,970 3,951 3,958 3,954 3,959 5 253 11,979
May-23 3,770 3,786 3,765 3,782 3,756 3,777 21 467,280 1,273,538
Jul-23 3,760 3,778 3,757 3,773 3,742 3,768 26 21,463 219,275
Aug-23 3,826 3,827 3,810 3,821 3,800 3,819 19 25,332 140,452
Sep-23 3,799 3,812 3,793 3,807 3,784 3,803 19 100,154 471,153
Nov-23 3,769 3,782 3,759 3,776 3,753 3,774 21 29,247 69,016
Dec-23 3,750 3,759 3,738 3,747 3,733 3,752 19 16,354 27,290
Jan-24 3,696 3,707 3,685 3,692 3,673 3,696 23 12,456 49,656
Palm Oil
Turnover: 733,010 lots, or 60.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 8,310 8,322 8,310 -12 0 2,967
Apr-23 8,448 8,448 8,248 8,252 8,436 8,336 -100 23,261 59,795
May-23 8,424 8,424 8,238 8,250 8,404 8,328 -76 614,818 473,504
Jun-23 8,370 8,378 8,210 8,222 8,370 8,298 -72 14,779 87,164
Jul-23 8,298 8,308 8,164 8,170 8,296 8,246 -50 11,224 58,837
Aug-23 8,250 8,322 8,116 8,120 8,222 8,192 -30 10,597 38,290
Sep-23 8,212 8,212 8,064 8,076 8,164 8,134 -30 44,364 66,679
Oct-23 8,154 8,160 8,030 8,044 8,118 8,112 -6 11,119 18,530
Nov-23 8,108 8,110 7,986 8,000 8,064 8,060 -4 2,506 4,324
Dec-23 8,056 8,056 7,984 7,984 8,058 8,026 -32 8 84
Jan-24 8,036 8,036 7,938 7,950 8,014 7,994 -20 329 540
Feb-24 7,986 7,990 7,932 7,932 7,968 7,976 8 5 9
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 702,989 lots, or 62.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 – – – 9,440 9,440 9,440 0 0 472
May-23 9,026 9,052 8,876 8,892 8,954 8,974 20 606,729 486,495
Jul-23 8,938 8,992 8,830 8,856 8,898 8,930 32 12,433 84,022
Aug-23 8,952 8,970 8,806 8,828 8,868 8,906 38 9,105 57,101
Sep-23 8,888 8,922 8,758 8,774 8,818 8,848 30 56,029 104,536
Nov-23 8,834 8,850 8,708 8,732 8,752 8,794 42 10,189 36,404
Dec-23 8,826 8,838 8,698 8,718 8,748 8,780 32 7,898 18,302
Jan-24 8,812 8,820 8,682 8,716 8,742 8,752 10 606 3,058
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322