Grains Report 03/02/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 2
For the week ended Feb 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 284.1 16.8 17134.7 18282.0 3223.4 430.3
hrw 81.9 11.0 4674.3 7357.2 685.3 112.3
srw 26.7 5.0 2672.6 2674.1 587.4 188.1
hrs 133.0 0.0 5202.4 4855.9 948.1 49.8
white 42.6 0.8 4272.4 3206.4 934.1 43.2
durum 0.0 0.0 313.1 188.5 68.6 36.9
corn 598.1 0.0 29238.0 48058.5 14208.2 1562.7
soybeans 360.7 134.0 48813.8 50166.5 7208.6 1307.8
soymeal 172.4 40.5 7725.4 8328.4 2878.7 119.0
soyoil 1.2 0.0 52.0 565.1 20.5 0.6
upland cotton 170.6 97.2 10528.8 12930.2 5141.9 1394.3
pima cotton 1.2 0.0 136.2 415.2 39.3 3.5
sorghum 52.8 0.0 1052.8 6667.5 581.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.9 28.5 3.9 0.0
rice 17.6 0.0 1385.9 2286.5 491.9 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 03, 2023 500 Feb 27, 2023
ROUGH RICE March Mar 03, 2023 56 Mar 01, 2023
CORN March Mar 03, 2023 161 Feb 24, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 03, 2023 120 Feb 22, 2023
SOYBEAN March Mar 03, 2023 340 Feb 27, 2023
WHEAT March Mar 03, 2023 64 Feb 27, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday but Winter Wheat prides recovered to close a little higher as Spring Wheat prices held lower. It was a relatively narrow range day, but it is possible that Wheat is trying to find a bottom at this time. The Chicago SRW contract has been the weakest and that indicates fund selling. The funds now have a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry condition. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no obj3ectives, Support is at 702, 692, and 680 May, with resistance at 721, 738, and 742 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 807, 800, and 794 May, with resistance at 837, 853, and 862 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 857, 852, and 844 March, and resistance is at 871, 880, and 887 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower early yesterday, but then found new buying to push higher and close at the highs of the day. It was a dramatic day. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1742, 1724, and 1714 May and resistance is at 1762, 1773, and 1779 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday after making new lows for the move. It was a great recovery for a market that really needed one and could be a sign that the selling is over and a correction higher has begun. Oats closed a little lower. The export inspections report released Monday afternoon showed bad exports once again and the US is falling far behind the pace to meet USDA targets. The lack of demand has been a reason for all the selling in the last seven days. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. The situation is now more stable in southern Brazil and northern Argentina after recent rains, but the situation in central and southern Argentina remains stressed. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is much improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. China released its PMI data yesterday and the PMI weas above expectations. It was considered positive for new demand potential from China.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 628, 615, and 612 May, and resistance is at 637, 645, and 648 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 327 and 312 May. Support is at 328, 325, and 322 May, and resistance is at 342, 345, and 348 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on what appeared to be fund selling to start the day, then recovered to close higher. It could be a sign that the selling seen over the last seven sessions has run its course and a correction higher has begun. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels in the near future and the lack of exports for the US has hurt the price action and created down trends for Soybeans and sideways to down trends for the products. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Sothern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting enough rain to stabilize conditions and production losses but central and southern Argentina remain very dry. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Chinese demand is expected to improve in the world market and especially in Brazil with the country now open and many starting to move beyond Covid and create life and opportunity again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1476, 1472, and 1466 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1510, and 1522 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 462.00 and 446.00 March. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 457.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00, 474.00, and 478.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5970, 5900, and 5870 May, with resistance at 6120, 63240, and 6380 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today in response to Chinese PMI data that showed that the Chinese economy is recovering and implied that China could soon increase Palm Oil imports. Futures were also higher on reports of flooding in Malaysia. China was a noted buyer of Palm Oil last week. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing but will start to decrease soon as most have now had Covid. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Flash floods are being reported. Canola was slightly higher in narrow range trading on demand concerns as ideas that Brazil will capture demand for the world market. Brazil is expected t dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer. It is dry in the southern and southwestern prairies now and this could mean reduced yields when the production season begins in a couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 816.00, 811.00, and 803.00 May, with resistance at 827.00, 835.00, and 836.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4130, 4090, and 4050 May, with resistance at 4190, 4270, and 4300 May,

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

March
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

April
89 May
1790 May
120 May
110 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 816.45 -16.05 Mar 2023 dn 14.00
Track Thunder Bay 854.70 35.00 May 2023 dn 3.00
Track Vancouver 881.70 62.00 May 2023 dn 3.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 995.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 992.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 975.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 1005.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1002.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 985.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 975.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 750.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4300.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
4Mar 247.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.474)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 76,396 lots, or .42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,521 5,521 5,508 5,508 5,516 5,515 -1 42 2,491
May-23 5,580 5,588 5,556 5,569 5,570 5,573 3 62,594 158,890
Jul-23 5,501 5,507 5,477 5,494 5,487 5,493 6 7,797 59,090
Sep-23 5,457 5,462 5,437 5,458 5,443 5,449 6 1,039 6,369
Nov-23 5,431 5,433 5,404 5,423 5,414 5,420 6 4,878 25,146
Jan-24 5,410 5,411 5,389 5,407 5,397 5,399 2 46 313
Corn
Turnover: 351,655 lots, or 9.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,809 2,830 2,809 2,815 2,813 2,816 3 2,746 5,205
May-23 2,852 2,852 2,840 2,848 2,848 2,846 -2 176,730 637,880
Jul-23 2,849 2,852 2,837 2,848 2,849 2,845 -4 92,096 558,369
Sep-23 2,823 2,823 2,798 2,812 2,817 2,809 -8 22,500 104,114
Nov-23 2,756 2,757 2,730 2,741 2,754 2,745 -9 55,403 230,326
Jan-24 2,746 2,746 2,718 2,725 2,739 2,730 -9 2,180 8,996
Soymeal
Turnover: 768,045 lots, or 28.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 3,941 3,980 3,932 3,941 3,986 3,952 -34 659 12,094
May-23 3,745 3,748 3,722 3,736 3,752 3,734 -18 525,209 1,340,415
Jul-23 3,735 3,737 3,707 3,722 3,739 3,722 -17 28,953 217,671
Aug-23 3,780 3,791 3,766 3,783 3,797 3,778 -19 25,057 137,548
Sep-23 3,762 3,774 3,751 3,763 3,780 3,763 -17 137,179 468,898
Nov-23 3,743 3,746 3,723 3,737 3,760 3,733 -27 24,024 70,158
Dec-23 3,713 3,721 3,701 3,718 3,731 3,711 -20 14,565 27,449
Jan-24 3,658 3,666 3,641 3,660 3,667 3,654 -13 12,399 44,182
Palm Oil
Turnover: 723,908 lots, or 60.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 8,182 8,312 8,182 8,312 8,182 8,256 74 450 2,486
Apr-23 8,300 8,428 8,276 8,380 8,240 8,360 120 18,405 70,862
May-23 8,250 8,386 8,236 8,340 8,200 8,318 118 607,627 505,841
Jun-23 8,202 8,330 8,188 8,294 8,168 8,266 98 14,162 83,309
Jul-23 8,130 8,258 8,124 8,222 8,118 8,190 72 12,263 53,602
Aug-23 8,076 8,180 8,064 8,150 8,068 8,128 60 11,125 36,256
Sep-23 8,060 8,128 8,012 8,092 8,030 8,080 50 46,725 64,026
Oct-23 8,016 8,090 7,982 8,046 7,986 8,036 50 10,254 17,648
Nov-23 7,936 8,046 7,936 8,002 7,946 8,002 56 2,798 2,264
Dec-23 7,918 7,992 7,916 7,992 7,938 7,940 2 6 86
Jan-24 7,908 7,972 7,888 7,938 7,890 7,942 52 92 350
Feb-24 7,948 7,948 7,948 7,948 7,880 7,948 68 1 14
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 550,490 lots, or 48.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 9,288 9,288 9,288 9,288 9,288 9,288 0 6 472
May-23 8,852 8,914 8,810 8,892 8,828 8,868 40 488,235 472,256
Jul-23 8,782 8,856 8,750 8,830 8,768 8,806 38 7,643 80,962
Aug-23 8,750 8,826 8,720 8,802 8,738 8,784 46 5,992 55,573
Sep-23 8,674 8,770 8,656 8,750 8,676 8,718 42 38,566 94,639
Nov-23 8,636 8,706 8,606 8,688 8,630 8,670 40 4,887 36,249
Dec-23 8,638 8,700 8,604 8,680 8,622 8,668 46 4,570 17,276
Jan-24 8,606 8,698 8,584 8,666 8,618 8,652 34 591 2,661
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322