About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 02, 2023 8 Nov 22, 2022
ROUGH RICE March Mar 02, 2023 139 Feb 28, 2023
CORN March Mar 02, 2023 352 Feb 24, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 02, 2023 234 Feb 09, 2023
OATS March Mar 02, 2023 65 Feb 28, 2023
SOYBEAN March Mar 02, 2023 178 Feb 21, 2023
WHEAT March Mar 02, 2023 580 Feb 27, 2023

DJ China’s Economy Seen Emerging From Zero-Covid Shadow — Commodities Roundup
China’s Economy Seen Emerging From Zero-Covid Shadow
Economic activity in China expanded sharply for a second straight month, in an early sign the country may be shaking off the impact of pandemic curbs sooner than expected.
A gauge of manufacturing rose at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, while export orders expanded for the first time in almost two years, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Services and construction activity also expanded further, the purchasing managers index report showed.
The release will be a welcome relief for China’s top leaders gathering for the annual congress of the ruling Communist Party this weekend, helping to turn the spotlight on economic growth and away from the damage caused by their zero-Covid policies. China’s economy grew 3% in 2022, one of the slowest rates in decades, as pandemic controls shut factories, depressed home sales and crushed consumer spending.
The data may strengthen the case for policy makers to raise their forecast for annual growth for this year, seen as a key step to restoring confidence in both the economy and the country’s leadership. Last year’s growth fell short of the official target of about 5.5% by a large margin.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday and prices in Chicago SRW traded to new lows. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no obj3ectives, Support is at 7692, 680, and 668 May, with resistance at 721, 738, and 742 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 807, 800, and 794 May, with resistance at 837, 853, and 862 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 863, 852, and 9840 March, and resistance is at 880, 887, and 892 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday in correction trading after the big mov higher on Monday. Reports indicate that the farmers have been selling and producers are also starting to get ready for planting in southern areas. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports and solid for domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1752 May. Support is at 1714, 1694, and 1689 May and resistance is at 1754, 1773, and 1779 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 1
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.67 11.43 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.42 12.12 0.00
Brokens 10.86 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on follow through selling in response to on ideas of weak demand. The export inspections report released Monday afternoon showed bad exports once again and the US is falling far behind the pace to meet USDA targets. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. The situation is now more stable in southern Brazil and northern Argentina after recent rains, but the situation in central and southern Argentina remains stressed. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is much improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. There are concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand should start to improve
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 628, 615, and 612 May, and resistance is at 637 645, and 648 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 327 and 312 May. Support is at 333, 330, and 325 May, and resistance is at 342, 345, and 348 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on what appeared to be fund selling. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels in the near future and the lack of exports for the US has hurt the price action and created down trends for Soybeans and sideways to down trends for the products. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Sothern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting enough rain to stabilize conditions and production losses but central and southern Argentina remain very dry. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Chinese demand is expected to improve in the world market and especially in Brazil with the country now open and many starting to move beyond Covid and create life and opportunity again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1476, 1472, and 1466 May, and resistance is at 1484, 1500, and 1520 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 462.00 and 446.00 March. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 457.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00, 474.00, and 478.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5970, 5900, and 5870 May, with resistance at 6120, 63240, and 6380 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today in response to Chinese PMI data that showed that the Chinese economy is recovering and implied that China could soon increase Palm Oil imports. China was a noted buyer of Palm Oil last week. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing but will start to decrease soon as most have now had Covid. Peninsular Malaysia is getting flooding rains. Canola was lower on demand concerns as ideas that Brazil will capture demand for the world market. Brazil is expected t dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 816.00, 811.00, and 803.00 May, with resistance at 835.00, 836.00, and 848.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4090 May, with resistance at 4270, 4300, and 4340 May,

DJ Malaysia Feb. 1-28 Palm Oil Exports Up 1.7%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Feb. 1-28 period are estimated up 1.7% on month at 1,131,939 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
February 1-28 January 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 284,206 321,710
RBD Palm Oil 87,580 112,601
RBD Palm Stearin 76,471 60,910
Crude Palm Oil 248,875 254,308
Total* 1,131,939 1,113,292
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

March
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

April
89 May
1790 May
120 May
110 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 816.45 -16.05 Mar 2023 dn 14.00
Track Thunder Bay 854.70 35.00 May 2023 dn 3.00
Track Vancouver 881.70 62.00 May 2023 dn 3.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 970.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 970.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 960.00 +07.70 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 980.00 +05.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 980.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 970.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 950.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 730.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4200.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 243.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.485)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,404 lots, or 6.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,525 5,525 5,501 5,525 5,524 5,516 -8 48 2,878
May-23 5,580 5,598 5,542 5,580 5,595 5,570 -25 94,510 159,282
Jul-23 5,482 5,515 5,459 5,501 5,504 5,487 -17 14,688 59,180
Sep-23 5,459 5,469 5,420 5,440 5,453 5,443 -10 1,545 6,421
Nov-23 5,433 5,439 5,391 5,426 5,427 5,414 -13 5,567 24,782
Jan-24 5,409 5,411 5,378 5,410 5,409 5,397 -12 46 295
Corn
Turnover: 484,411 lots, or 13.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,819 2,828 2,805 2,819 2,821 2,813 -8 3,038 4,588
May-23 2,837 2,859 2,830 2,854 2,841 2,848 7 275,487 645,124
Jul-23 2,842 2,860 2,832 2,852 2,843 2,849 6 130,351 556,025
Sep-23 2,806 2,828 2,803 2,819 2,811 2,817 6 18,184 98,272
Nov-23 2,746 2,763 2,745 2,759 2,752 2,754 2 54,382 223,528
Jan-24 2,739 2,747 2,725 2,742 2,739 2,739 0 2,969 8,392
Soymeal
Turnover: 909,799 lots, or 34.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 4,030 4,030 3,955 3,988 4,095 3,986 -109 2,637 12,173
May-23 3,774 3,776 3,732 3,745 3,799 3,752 -47 648,174 1,334,897
Jul-23 3,761 3,762 3,719 3,730 3,787 3,739 -48 20,761 212,710
Aug-23 3,833 3,833 3,778 3,781 3,848 3,797 -51 22,194 136,549
Sep-23 3,804 3,804 3,761 3,771 3,821 3,780 -41 147,409 456,525
Nov-23 3,783 3,783 3,731 3,744 3,805 3,760 -45 26,958 70,082
Dec-23 3,736 3,755 3,709 3,716 3,769 3,731 -38 17,168 27,145
Jan-24 3,695 3,714 3,645 3,659 3,704 3,667 -37 24,498 42,434
Palm Oil
Turnover: 772,693 lots, or 6.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 8,154 8,154 8,154 8,154 8,154 8,182 28 160 2,587
Apr-23 8,232 8,312 8,166 8,308 8,232 8,240 8 16,459 72,344
May-23 8,202 8,274 8,122 8,268 8,222 8,200 -22 675,558 473,610
Jun-23 8,198 8,234 8,100 8,232 8,196 8,168 -28 8,836 78,847
Jul-23 8,152 8,174 8,050 8,170 8,152 8,118 -34 10,706 50,987
Aug-23 8,100 8,118 8,000 8,116 8,096 8,068 -28 8,188 34,359
Sep-23 8,042 8,074 7,952 8,066 8,052 8,030 -22 43,057 62,215
Oct-23 8,010 8,042 7,914 8,036 8,010 7,986 -24 8,499 16,654
Nov-23 7,950 7,992 7,884 7,992 7,962 7,946 -16 1,123 957
Dec-23 – – – 7,938 7,916 7,938 22 0 84
Jan-24 7,940 7,940 7,844 7,938 7,914 7,890 -24 104 340
Feb-24 7,880 7,880 7,880 7,880 7,896 7,880 -16 3 13
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 501,418 lots, or 44.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 9,280 9,280 9,280 9,280 9,268 9,288 20 2 473
May-23 8,850 8,880 8,766 8,864 8,854 8,828 -26 444,158 471,573
Jul-23 8,802 8,818 8,712 8,802 8,802 8,768 -34 7,168 80,374
Aug-23 8,772 8,784 8,682 8,780 8,770 8,738 -32 4,063 54,468
Sep-23 8,700 8,726 8,610 8,706 8,708 8,676 -32 37,760 90,961
Nov-23 8,664 8,672 8,572 8,650 8,660 8,630 -30 4,322 36,109
Dec-23 8,662 8,668 8,574 8,646 8,660 8,622 -38 2,995 17,247
Jan-24 8,668 8,668 8,560 8,620 8,636 8,618 -18 950 2,580
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322