Grains Report 02/28/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Feb 28
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 01, 2023 8 Oct 19, 2022
ROUGH RICE March Mar 01, 2023 325 Feb 27, 2023
CORN March Mar 01, 2023 352 Nov 14, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 01, 2023 245 Jan 12, 2023
OATS March Mar 01, 2023 50 Oct 03, 2022
SOYBEAN March Mar 01, 2023 411 Feb 10, 2023
WHEAT March Mar 01, 2023 910 Feb 27, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday and prices in all three markets traded to new lows for the move. News last week that USDA estimated planted area very high for the coming production and ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market were the driving forces for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Russia appears to be preparing to send three divisions across the border to fight and it looks as though this could be a major operation for the Russian army. Wire reports now suggest that Russia will now be committing almost its entire army to the war, but ideas are that Black Sea Wheat exports will continue in volume. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolate showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no obj3ectives, Support is at 704, 692, and 684 May, with resistance at 721, 738, and 742 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 807, 800, and 794 May, with resistance at 837, 853, and 862 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 864, 852, and 9840 March, and resistance is at 880, 887, and 892 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher yesterday on what appeared to be commercial or fund buying. USDA forecast a jump in production and demand yesterday with a fall in prices. Reports indicate that the farmers have been selling and producers are also starting to get ready for planting in southern areas. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports and solid for domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1752 May. Support is at 1714, 1694, and 1689 May and resistance is at 1754, 1773, and 1779 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on follow through selling in response to the USDA Outlook Conference that showed increased planted and harvested area and increased yields for potential production of more than 15 billion bushels and the second biggest crop on record and partly on the charts as price trends turned down and some big support areas were broken. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand has improved because of the price differentials. However, the export inspections were poor yesterday so the demand needs to ramp up now. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has chance now to see export demand improve. The export demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. The situation is now more stable in southern Brazil and northern Argentina after recent rains, but the situation in central and southern Argentina remains stressed. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is much improved. There are concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand should start to improve
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 638 May. Support is at 637, 634, and 631 May, and resistance is at 652 660, and 668 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 342, 333, and 330 May, and resistance is at 348, 358, and 361 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil lower and Soybean Meal closed higher, with support for Soybean Meal coming from reduced production and no exports from Argentina. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The market is weaker in response to the USDA Outlook Conference reports that showed planted and harvested area the same as last year and increased yields for increased production and in anticipation of the South American harvest coming to export channels in the near term. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. However, weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Sothern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting enough rain to stabilize conditions and production losses but central and southern Argentina remain very dry. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take a few more weeks as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1508, 1500, and 1476 May, and resistance is at 1527, 1533, and 1549 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 474.00, 471.00, and 465.00 May, and resistance is at 485.00, 487.00, and 493.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5970, 5900, and 5870 May, with resistance at 6240, 6380, and 6440 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little lower today along with outside markets. China was a noted buyer of Palm Oil last week. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing but will start to decrease soon as most have now had Covid. Canola was mixed, with nearby months higher and new crop months lower as the market realizes short supplies now but expects increased production for the new crop. Moves late in the week came due to currency relationships as much as anything Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 816.00, 811.00, and 803.00 May, with resistance at 835.00, 836.00, and 848.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4090 May, with resistance at 4270, 4300, and 4340 May.

DJ Malaysia’s February 1-25 Palm-Oil Exports Rose 12.5%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the February 1-25 period are estimated to have risen 12.5% on month to 985,780 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
February 1-25 January 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 256,734 261,864
RBD Palm Oil 68,178 100,686
RBD Palm Stearin 75,076 30,510
Crude Palm Oil 201,675 227,500
Total* 985,780 876,193
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

March
85 Mar
195 Mar
125 Mar
105 Mar

April
89 May
1790 May
120 May
110 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 816.45 -16.05 Mar 2023 dn 14.00
Track Thunder Bay 854.70 35.00 May 2023 dn 3.00
Track Vancouver 881.70 62.00 May 2023 dn 3.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 965.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 962.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 952.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 975.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 972.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 962.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 945.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 727.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4170.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 240.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.485)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 112,998 lots, or 6.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,530 5,547 5,503 5,542 5,540 5,524 -16 996 3,517
May-23 5,596 5,617 5,576 5,586 5,596 5,595 -1 85,993 160,652
Jul-23 5,514 5,525 5,487 5,499 5,514 5,504 -10 19,079 59,063
Sep-23 5,470 5,477 5,444 5,453 5,474 5,453 -21 1,036 6,567
Nov-23 5,435 5,450 5,415 5,423 5,454 5,427 -27 5,779 24,708
Jan-24 5,431 5,431 5,400 5,401 5,439 5,409 -30 115 264
Corn
Turnover: 344,700 lots, or 9.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,829 2,831 2,806 2,819 2,830 2,821 -9 13,548 15,581
May-23 2,848 2,850 2,835 2,837 2,848 2,841 -7 159,891 670,720
Jul-23 2,848 2,852 2,836 2,838 2,850 2,843 -7 92,770 554,461
Sep-23 2,813 2,820 2,805 2,806 2,816 2,811 -5 14,300 96,745
Nov-23 2,753 2,761 2,746 2,748 2,771 2,752 -19 62,343 213,743
Jan-24 2,745 2,748 2,733 2,734 2,757 2,739 -18 1,848 8,064
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,018,088 lots, or 38.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 4,160 4,162 4,024 4,030 4,167 4,095 -72 20,876 12,756
May-23 3,830 3,838 3,770 3,775 3,830 3,799 -31 700,394 1,335,660
Jul-23 3,810 3,822 3,754 3,761 3,817 3,787 -30 40,079 209,727
Aug-23 3,871 3,876 3,813 3,822 3,872 3,848 -24 20,798 134,049
Sep-23 3,852 3,860 3,798 3,804 3,855 3,821 -34 184,262 451,211
Nov-23 3,824 3,832 3,778 3,783 3,830 3,805 -25 24,127 70,931
Dec-23 3,795 3,798 3,750 3,758 3,793 3,769 -24 5,206 26,304
Jan-24 3,730 3,730 3,683 3,690 3,725 3,704 -21 22,346 40,877
Palm Oil
Turnover: 796,924 lots, or 65.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 8,206 8,216 8,104 8,166 8,206 8,154 -52 362 2,587
Apr-23 8,302 8,306 8,168 8,256 8,280 8,232 -48 17,976 75,937
May-23 8,284 8,294 8,160 8,228 8,270 8,222 -48 710,630 473,090
Jun-23 8,300 8,300 8,138 8,208 8,250 8,196 -54 9,138 75,812
Jul-23 8,204 8,220 8,092 8,150 8,208 8,152 -56 10,267 46,877
Aug-23 8,160 8,166 8,036 8,108 8,142 8,096 -46 8,651 32,174
Sep-23 8,104 8,140 7,990 8,060 8,100 8,052 -48 35,117 58,632
Oct-23 8,068 8,086 7,958 8,028 8,056 8,010 -46 4,696 15,031
Nov-23 7,968 8,002 7,920 8,002 8,014 7,962 -52 15 408
Dec-23 7,914 7,918 7,914 7,918 7,962 7,916 -46 2 84
Jan-24 7,968 7,972 7,870 7,940 7,954 7,914 -40 69 327
Feb-24 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,946 7,896 -50 1 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 526,162 lots, or 4.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 9,278 9,514 9,194 9,298 9,278 9,268 -10 876 477
May-23 8,902 8,914 8,804 8,848 8,896 8,854 -42 461,416 474,979
Jul-23 8,850 8,862 8,754 8,796 8,850 8,802 -48 10,817 80,053
Aug-23 8,824 8,832 8,724 8,772 8,824 8,770 -54 6,609 53,548
Sep-23 8,762 8,772 8,662 8,704 8,768 8,708 -60 36,755 90,305
Nov-23 8,710 8,720 8,626 8,660 8,712 8,660 -52 5,664 36,186
Dec-23 8,718 8,724 8,630 8,656 8,704 8,660 -44 3,453 17,408
Jan-24 8,688 8,696 8,610 8,642 8,684 8,636 -48 572 2,123
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322