First Notice Day March Grains. The Corn & Ethanol Report 02/28/2023

We kickoff the day with Goods Trade Balance Adv, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv and Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index MoM & YoY and House Price Index at 8:00 A.M., Chicago PMI at 8;45 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index and Richmond Fed Services Index at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:30 A.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

On the Corn Front today we have or are rolling into May or July contracts with July being more of a market traders look to trade longer term positions. The market took on some more pressure in yesterday’s action with the spot slipping to its lowest level in 3 months. Drought conditions remain across Argentina, weather in Brazil remains favorable with spotty rains across the north central growing regions will accelerate soybean harvest and 2^nd corn seedings in Mato Grosso.

Rhonda Brooks with AGWEB reports Ken Ferrie and his agronomic team conduct yield map meetings with Illinois customers this winter, They are seeing some excellent nutrient use efficiencies from the 2022 season, especially with nitrogen (N). In many cases, corn yield results were higher than farmers set goals and expectations. “At side-dressing time, our growers were raising their yield goals because of strong corn stands, which was a result of corn coming out of the ground in four-and-a-half to five days,” recalls Ferrie, Farm Field Journal Agronomist. “In most cases, pushing yield goals was the right move,” he adds. “Some growers who started with 220-bu. yield goals for instance bumped it to 240, and we adjusted the N rate accordingly.” With grain markets continuing to slide (5 sessions in a row) we may get a bounce with some short-covering but the market is trying to find support, two wildcards come into play long-term with global corn feed demand, ethanol demand and demand for human consumption which may or may not push US exports, while, the other wildcard will be Prospective Plantings March 31^st. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 641 ¾ which is 1 ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 646 ¾ to 641 ¼.

On the Ethanol Front Pro Farmer reports the Brazilian government is set to resume the collection of federal taxes on fuels this week, the Finance Ministry said on Monday, with the rate of fossil fuels higher than for biofuels. A measure to exempt federal taxes levied on fuel was launched by former President Jair Bolsonaro last year as he sought to boost his popularity by lowering prices ahead of a re-election bid. But President Luiz Inacio da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in October, extended the tax waiver on diesel and biodiesel until December of this year, and on gasoline and ethanol until February. The end of the waiver is seen positively by Brazil’s ethanol industry, since without taxes the biofuel loses its competitiveness against gasoline. There were no trades or open interest in the CBOT ethanol futures.

 

Have A Great Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374