Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 02/27/2023
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher on Friday and for the week as USDA kept with low planted area forecasts in its ideas released to the market on Thursday. Export demand was very strong when the sales report was released on Friday morning. USDA forecast a significant reduction in US planted area for Cotton in its outlook conference at about 10.5 million acres. Demand was very strong in the report last week and has been ramping up for the last couple of months. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months as Covid outbreaks should start to weaken as people get vaccinated or immune. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed but these effects should start to be felt as the people there achieve immunity over the next week or two. The charts show that futures held at a test of the lows formed since November and that prices could start to move higher to the top end of the range at ab out 90 cents in the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.86 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,147 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher Friday and for the week as production remains the overriding force. The charts show that May is now challenging contract highs, but futures need to trade t about 367.00 to make new all time highs. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US. Even so, the Florida Dept of Citrus reported that inventories are still 40.6% below last year at 102.39 million pounds.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 255.00 May. Support is at 235.00, 228.00, and 223.00 May, with resistance at 249.00, 253.00, and 261.00 May.
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Feb 24
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 70.134 million pounds, in January, 11.3% above the previous
month, and 56.9% above January 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Friday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Jan 31 Dec 31 Jan 31 Dec 31 warehouse
2023 2022 2022 2021 stocks/Jan
orange juice 288,362 290,252 446,971 496,607
===============================================================================
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower Friday in correction trading after the big rally early last week tied to higher differentials in Brazil and Vietnam caused by a lack of offers from producers in both countries. Futures finished higher for the week and could work higher again this week. Producers are not offering right now and the market wonders how much Coffee is left. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have veery good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvet progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.800 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 178.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 572 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 209.00 May. Support is at 190.00, 187.00, and 184.00 May, and resistance is at 201.00, 205.00 and 206.00 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2130, 2090, and 2080 May, and resistance is at 2210, 2250, and 2280 May.
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/21/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
101,641 45,687 66,027 1,784 3,189 1,940
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 44.9% 65.0% 1.8% 3.1% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
134 42 33 7 9 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,592 9,729 4,938 5,544 2,435 9,750
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.2% 9.6% 4.9% 5.5% 2.4% 9.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
37 11 12 9 12 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,406 3,633
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.3% 3.6%
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday and for the week as traders continue to factor in production losses in India and Brazil and other locations as well. Indian production is thought to be 33 million tons this year or less and the market has had to ration that supply via price. Thailand expects to export 7% more than last year. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south has seen drier weather. There is concern that the rainy areas will stay too wet and delay the harvest and dilute the Sugar concentrations in the cane in central areas. The harvest is active in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also active. European production is expected to be reduced again this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1900 May and resistance is at 2030, 2050, and 2080 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 557.00, 549.00, and 545.00 May and resistance is at 578.00, 582.00, and 588.00 May.
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/21/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
88,590 29,849 67,852 8,154 5,004 1,879
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.7% 76.6% 9.2% 5.6% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
120 33 36 9 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,624 2,239 3,891 2,948 1,169 2,937
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
36.8% 2.5% 4.4% 3.3% 1.3% 3.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 6 11 8 5 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,308 3,619
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.1% 4.1%
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly a little lower on Friday and for the week in correction trading as West African exporters are not offering. Wire reports suggest that exporters are currently looking for Cocoa to make good on current contracts and are not entering into new contracts right now. However, the Ivory Coast Cocoa and Coffee Council said that there will be more than enough Cocoa for export and that exporters can fix contracts. Trends have turned up in both New York and London for the longer term, but have turned mixed for the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.042 million bags. ICE NY said that there were 380 notices posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 601 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2840 and 2860 May. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2650 May, with resistance at 2810, 2840, and 2870 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2040 May, with resistance at 2150, 217e0, and 2200 May.
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/21/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
369,898 131,848 250,782 29,059 20,824 30,092
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 35.6% 67.8% 7.9% 5.6% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
170 40 42 17 9 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
98,293 8,933 16,362 19,199 1,031 39,048
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
26.6% 2.4% 4.4% 5.2% 0.3% 10.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
51 11 18 16 13 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,997 2,826
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.6% 0.8%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322