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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 02/27/2023

By Jack Scoville On February 27, 2023 - 10:31 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Feb 24

Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics

for the two-week period that ended Feb. 19, 2023. Figures in thousands of

metric tons. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.

Wheat Durum Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total

COMMERCIAL STOCKS

This Week 3063.6 652.9 359.3 509.9 49.8 1309.6 328.9 279.6 6987.2

Week Ago 2958.9 638.4 347.5 513.9 50.2 1243.6 375.5 223.0 6800.4

Year Ago 2958.9 638.4 347.5 513.9 50.2 1243.6 375.5 223.0 6800.4

PRODUCER DELIVERIES

This Week 566.7 130.3 62.3 80.5 2.6 417.5 71.5 10.5 1390.7

Week Ago 590.8 130.3 73.6 86.7 3.9 440.0 63.8 11.8 1446.9

To Date 13907.6 3453.7 1507.7 3156.6 87.3 11121.1 1922.3 242.5 37964.0

Year Ago 9137.2 1733.1 1268.6 2837.2 149.4 9553.6 1347.9 427.8 28186.5

TERMINAL RECEIPTS

This Week 305.7 73.0 2.1 86.2 0.0 158.9 36.0 50.4 766.9

Week Ago 319.9 83.2 0.1 93.3 0.0 161.0 37.5 50.5 785.1

To Date 13105.5 3459.6 171.7 1858.5 1.3 5545.0 1349.4 904.5 31405.1

Year Ago 8489.6 2033.7 155.3 1746.2 27.0 4389.7 771.6 739.9 22692.4

EXPORTS

This Week 312.0 105.6 24.1 135.0 0.4 190.8 90.8 0.0 951.1

Week Ago 364.6 166.2 33.7 122.8 0.5 181.8 88.2 33.0 1016.7

To Date 10955.0 3064.7 792.6 2002.1 33.7 4889.8 1291.0 699.3 27712.1

Year Ago 6585.3 1423.9 744.0 1683.3 55.2 3739.2 748.7 584.9 18615.6

DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE

This Week 64.9 5.7 18.2 27.4 1.3 179.9 7.5 23.2 350.5

Week Ago 62.9 3.8 15.7 28.9 2.0 206.0 6.2 19.7 380.3

To Date 2464.0 362.5 492.6 898.9 44.2 5696.7 183.7 797.8 12229.9

Year Ago 2368.0 266.8 476.1 1061.3 36.7 5190.2 162.4 1347.6 12097.1

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

204-782-5944)

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Feb 24

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers

totaled 70.134 million pounds, in January, 11.3% above the previous

month, and 56.9% above January 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture

said Friday.

In thousand pounds.

public

Jan 31 Dec 31 Jan 31 Dec 31 warehouse

2023 2022 2022 2021 stocks/Jan

pork bellies 70,134 63,015 44,707 38,069

orange juice 288,362 290,252 446,971 496,607

french fries 1,033,725 999,180 939,539 864,148

other potatoes 229,435 220,267 210,574 199,872

chicken rstr (whole) 13,554 13,957 13,509 12,231

ham 78,340 53,414 74,775 61,354

total pork 517,727 456,379 434,415 396,461 452,270

total beef 532,733 543,955 525,724 507,123 522,256

total red meat 1,078,760 1,028,228 986,396 929,285 1,001,576

total chicken 866,111 931,844 771,304 742,979

total turkey 284,506 189,715 243,749 165,754

total poultry 1,152,981 1,123,308 1,017,173 911,169 1,042,385

===============================================================================

CATTLE ON FEED REPORT FEBRUARY 24, 2023

United States Cattle on Feed Down 4 Percent

Range Average Actual Million 2023 Million 2022

On feed February 1 95.7-99.5 96.5 96 11.704 12,209

Placements in January 95.5-99.7 97.1 96 1.932 2,004

Marketings in January 102.7-104.6 103.9 104 1.847 1,773

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower last week and Chicago SRW prices traded to new lows for the last year. News that USDA estimated planted area very high for the coming production and ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market were the driving forces for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue this week. News that Russia has launched a new offensive in Ukraine provided much of thew support this week. Russia appears to be sending three divisions across the border to fight and it looks as though this could be a major operation for the Russian army. Wire report now suggest that Russia has now committed almost its entire army to the war. Fears of deliveries of Wheat from the Black Sea will be cut significantly are surfacing again. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia is said to be plotting a huge new invasion of Ukraine that could prevent farmers in Ukraine from harvesting Wheat and planting Corn. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. However, Russian production estimates have dropped recently. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see big snows. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no obj3ectives, Support is at 716, 704, and 692 May, with resistance at 744, 765, and 773 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 825, 807, and 800 May, with resistance at 853, 862, and 866 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 927, 922, and 906 March, and resistance is at 942, 947, and 955 May.

RICE:

General Comments : Rice was lower again Friday and sharply lower for the week as the market is in a free fall from recent highs. USDA forecast a jump in production and demand yesterday with a fall in prices. Reports indicate that the farmers have been selling and ideas are that they might dump on the market if they think a big crop is coming at the end of the new growing season that is now getting ready to start in southern growing areas. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports and solid for domestic uses.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis : Trends are down with objectives of 1625 May. Support is at 1689, 1683, and 1670 May and resistance is at 1714, 1728, and 1737 May.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments : Corn closed sharply lower last week in response to the USDA Outlook Conference that showed increased planted and harvested area and increased yields for potential production of more than 15 billion bushels and the second biggest crop on record and partly on the charts as price trends turned down and some big support areas were broken. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand has improved because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has chance now to see export demand improve more than it has already. The export demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. The situation is now more stable in southern Brazil and northern Argentina after recent rains, but the situation in central and southern Argentina remains stressed. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. There are concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 638 May. Support is at 648, 645, and 637 May, and resistance is at 660 668, and 672 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 342, 333, and 330 May, and resistance is at 348, 358, and 361 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little lower on Friday and Soybean Oil closed a little lower for the week while the others closed a little higher. The market is weaker in response to the USDA Outlook Conference reports that showed planted and harvested area the same as last year and increased yields for increased production and in anticipation of the South American harvest coming to export channels in the near term. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. However, weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Sothern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting enough rain to stabilize conditions and production losses but central and southern Argentina remain very dry. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain. Soybean Meal saw strong weekly export sales as Argentina is having to withdraw from the market for Soy products sales due to the drought in the country and the fact that they have already sold a lot of Soybeans into the world market. They are now buying from Brazil. The harvest in Brazil is slowly expanding in central and northern areas. These areas have seen too much rain and the harvest has been slow. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take a few more weeks as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1510, 1500, and 1476 May, and resistance is at 1533, 1549, and 1560 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 474.00, 471.00, and 465.00 May, and resistance is at 485.00, 487.00, and 493.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6080, 5970, and 5900 May, with resistance at 6240, 6480, and 6440 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher last week on ideas of stronger demand due to the coming Ramadan holiday period and also on a weaker Ringgit. Palm closed a little higher today. China was a noted buyer of Palm Oil today. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing but will start to decrease soon as most have now had Covid. Canola was higher in narrow range trading last week. Moves late in the week came due to currency relationships as much as anything Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 816.00, 811.00, and 803.00 May, with resistance at 835.00, 836.00, and 848.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4350 May. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4090 May, with resistance at 4300, 4340, and 4420 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis


	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
February	85 Mar	195 Mar	125 Mar	105 Mar
March	85 Mar	195 Mar	125 Mar	105 Mar
April	89 May	1790 May	120 May	110 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 24

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

Price Basis Contract Change

CANOLA

*Par Region 816.45 -16.05 Mar 2023 dn 14.00

Track Thunder Bay 854.70 35.00 May 2023 dn 3.00

Track Vancouver 881.70 62.00 May 2023 dn 3.00

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 27

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports