Inflation Potholes & Trainwrecks. The Corn & Ethanol Report 02/24/2023

We kickoff the day with Core PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, Export Sales, PCE Price Index MoM & YoY and Personal Income at 7:30 A.M., New Home Sales MoM, New Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech and Fed Mester Speech at 9:15 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M., Building Permits Final, Monetary Policy Forum and Building Permits MoM Final.

On the Corn Front a report of the Ohio toxic spill trainwreck could have been 100% preventable according to boots on the ground reports. The damage in soil and waterbeds will take years if not decades to fully recover and have acceptable readings. Any crops grown in the area will be and be carefully monitored for export, and the Ohio River locks remain closed until cleanup is underway and maybe longer.  This may further disrupt barge traffic in the main arteries In the coming months sending barges to the New Orleans shipping region. We closed lower yesterday after the USDA projection for 91 million acres of corn was vied a negative for corn prices late in 2023 and selling pressure led by farmers and funds kicked into high gear. Corn bulls were not excited to see sizable supply numbers in the upcoming US crop year. However, they know that both acreage and yield numbers are far from settled. Traders will be waiting for Prospective Plantings on March 31^st. In the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 654 ½ which is 5 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 662 ½ to 653 ½.

On the Ethanol Front production and consumption for ethanol as a transportation fuel grew significantly over the last three decades in the US before plateauing in recent years due to the pandemic. Meanwhile, the US Grains Council staff and Ethanol Advisory Team members traveled to Ottawa, Canada, from Jan31 to Feb2, 2023, to meet Canadian government officials and private stakeholders to discuss details related to the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation released in July 2022. During this visit, the Council reiterated its enthusiasm and support for regulation and advised against further delay of clear guidance necessary for its successful implantation. Canada has been a significant growing market for US ethanol the past decade and the top destination the last three years setting racords. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

 

Have A Great Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374