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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 02/24/2023

By Jack Scoville On February 24, 2023 - 11:03 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Feb 24

For the week ended Feb 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

wk’s net chg total

in commitments commitments undlvd sales

this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr

wheat 338.8 80.0 16850.6 17982.1 3549.3 413.5

hrw 83.9 0.0 4592.4 7236.7 756.9 101.3

srw 53.4 26.0 2646.0 2642.8 632.5 183.1

hrs 120.9 0.0 5069.5 4772.8 1055.9 49.8

white 80.0 19.0 4229.8 3160.0 1035.5 42.4

durum 0.7 35.0 313.1 169.7 68.6 36.9

corn 823.2 25.5 28639.9 47573.4 14276.5 1562.7

soybeans 544.9 11.7 48578.3 49309.4 7728.7 1173.8

soymeal 65.6 0.0 7553.2 8233.0 2899.4 78.4

soyoil -0.8 0.0 50.9 558.5 19.8 0.6

upland cotton 425.3 11.9 10358.3 12581.6 5179.1 1297.1

pima cotton 1.4 0.0 135.0 407.8 41.1 3.5

sorghum 102.8 0.0 1000.0 6565.5 634.0 0.0

barley 0.3 0.0 11.9 28.5 3.9 0.0

rice 32.2 0.0 1368.2 2216.5 505.7 0.0

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly lower yesterday on newss that USDA estimated planted area very high for the coming productiio and on ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market. News that Russia has launched a new offensive in Ukraine provided much of thew support this week. Russia appears to be sending three divisions across the border to fight and it looks as though this could be a major operation for the Russian army. Wire report now suggest that Russia has now committed almost its entire army to the war. Fears of deliveries of Wheat from the Black Sea will be cut significantly are surfacing again. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia is said to be plotting a huge new invasion of Ukraine that could prevent farmers in Ukraine from harvesting Wheat and planting Corn. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. However, Russian production estimates have dropped recently. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see big snows. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with obj3ectives of 704, 698, and 689 March, Support is at 733, 721, and 713 March, with resistance at 744, 755, and 760 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 848 March. Support is at 859, 849, and 842 March, with resistance at 871, 877, and 884 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 900, 876 and 867 March. Support is at 902, 896, and 890 March, and resistance is at 915, 919, and 928 March.

RICE:

General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday as the market is in a free fall from recent highs near 1800 March. USDA forecast a jump in production and demand yesterday with a fall in prices. It looks like traders took the fall in prices to heart and tried to make it true for anytime after yesterday. Reports indicate that the farmers have been selling and ideas are that they might dump on the market if they think a big crop is coming at the end of the new growing season that is now getting ready to start in southern growing areas. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports and solid for domestic uses.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1666, 1652, and 1640 March and resistance is at 1699, 1723, and 1746 March.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed sharply lower in response to the USDA Outlook Conference that showed inceased planted and harvested area and increased yields for potential production of more than 15 billion bushels and the second biggest crop on record and partly on the charts as price trends turned down and some big support areas were broken. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand has improved because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has chance now to see export demand improve more than it has already. The export demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. There are concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 651, 642, and 636 March. Support is at 654, 649, and 647 March, and resistance is at 669, 673, and 676 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 360, 357, and 348 March, and resistance is at 375, 3782, and 389 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower, but Soybean Meal closed higher. The market is weaker in response to the USDA Outlook Conference reports that showed planted and harvested area the same as last year and increased yields for increased production and in anticipation of the South American harvest coming to export channels in the near term. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and southern Brazil and crop conditions are getting worse. However, weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain. Soybean Meal saw strong weekly export sales as Argentina is having to withdraw from the market for Soy products sales due to the drought in the country and the fact that they have already sold a lot of Soybeans into the world market. They are now buying from Brazil. The harvest in Brazil is slowly expanding in central and northern areas. These areas have seen too much rain and the harvest has been slow. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take a few more weeks as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1532, 1517, and 1511 March, and resistance is at 1556, 1562, and 1574 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 488.00, 478.00, and 472.00 March, and resistance is at 501.00, 508.00, and 514.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6350, 6710, and 6950 March. Support is at 6100, 6070, and 5960 March, with resistance at 6360, 6520, and 6500 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on ideas of stronger demand due to the coming Ramadan holiday period and also on a weaker Ringgit. China was a noted buyer of Palm Oil today. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing but will start to decrease soon as most have now had Covid. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was lower in saympathy with the price action in Soybeans and on the monthly crush data that showed a little less demand than expected. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 829.00, 820.00, and 819.00 March, with resistance at 843.00, 849.00, and 852.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4350 May. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4030 May, with resistance at 4250, 4300, and 4340 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis


	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
February	87 Mar	180 Mar	125 Mar	115 Mar
March	90 Mar	180 Mar	120 Mar	115 Mar
April	95 May	1780 May	1215 May	115 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 23

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price Basis Contract Change

CANOLA

*Par Region 830.45 -8.65 Mar. 2023 dn 3.05

Basis: Thunder Bay 857.70 35.00 May 2023 dn 9.20

Basis: Vancouver 884.70 62.00 May 2023 dn 9.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day.

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 24

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports